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The Role of Inflation Persistence in the Inflation Process in the New EU Member States

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Abstract
The aim of this paper is to compare inflation persistence between the New Member States (NMS) that joined the European Union in 2004 and 2007 and selected euro area members. If the levels of inflation persistence between the two groups are different, the NMS may encounter problems with fulfilling the Maastricht criterion on inflation and – after entering the euro area – with inflation divergence. We argue that the specific economic situation of the NMS in the last 15 years necessitates careful selection of inflation persistence measures. Two measures are estimated. The first one is based on a simple univariate statistical model of inflation with a time-varying mean. The second one assumes that inflation follows a fractionally integrated process and measures inflation persistence within an ARFIMA model. Statistical tests suggest that the model with a time-varying mean is preferable to the ARFIMA model for almost all countries. The estimation results show that inflation persistence is not an issue for all of the NMS. On the one hand, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Malta, Romania, and Slovakia exhibit persistence levels similar to those in the selected euro area countries. On the other hand, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovenia encounter a problem with high persistence stemming from both high intrinsic and high expectations-based inflation persistence.

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  • Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Kateøina Šmídková, 2010. "The Role of Inflation Persistence in the Inflation Process in the New EU Member States," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 480-500, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:60:y:2010:i:6:p:480-500
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomislav Globan & Vladimir Arčabić & Petar Sorić, 2016. "Inflation in New EU Member States: A Domestically or Externally Driven Phenomenon?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 154-168, January.
    2. Evžen Kočenda & Balázs Varga, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 229-274, September.
    3. Brian Micallef & Reuben Ellul, 2020. "How Do Estimates of Inflation Persistence in Malta Compare with Other EU Countries?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(7), pages 1-31, July.
    4. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2015. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve Estimation: The Case of Hungary (1981–2006)," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 13(4 (Winter), pages 355-367.
    5. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb09/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb10/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Diana Bílková, 2015. "What is About Wages in the Czech Education and Healthcare Sectors Before, during and after the Global Economic Recession?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 58-72, January.
    8. Roman Horváth & Jakub Matějů, 2011. "How Are Inflation Targets Set?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 265-300, June.
    9. Hasan Engin Duran & Burak Dindaroğlu, 2021. "Regional inflation persistence in Turkey," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 460-491, March.
    10. Zorica Mladenović & Aleksandra Nojković, 2012. "Inflation Persistence in Central and Southeastern Europe: Evidence from Univariate and Structural Time Series Approaches," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(2), pages 235-266, May.
    11. Abuselidze, George, 2018. "Modern Challenges of Monetary Policy Strategies: Inflation and Devaluation Influence on Economic Development of the Country," MPRA Paper 99885, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Jan 2019.
    12. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb10/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Diana Bílková, 2015. "Financial Position of Czech Employees at the Beginning of the 3rd Millennium according to Educational Attainment," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(3), pages 307-331.
    14. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb11/1 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation persistence; new member states; time-varying mean; central bank credibility; ARFIMA model; Bayesian estimation; Kalman filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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