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Testing Stationarity of Budgetary Position in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Evan Lau

    (Universiti Malaysia Sarawak)

  • Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah

    (Universiti Putra Malaysia)

  • Shazali Abu Mansor

    (Universiti Malaysia Sarawak)

  • Chin-Hong Puah

    (Universiti Malaysia Sarawak)

Abstract
In this paper, we examine stationarity properties of data on budget deficits for a cluster of twenty-seven developing countries (D-27) for the period spanning 1970 to 2003. It has been argued in the literature that this statistical property correlates well with the economic property of sustainability of the budget deficit. The univariate unit root tests indicated a non-stationary process of I(1) with the exception of three countries. However, the non-stationary properties were rejected when the panel unit roots procedures were adopted. Since panel procedures provide greater power, the statistical evidence favors stationarity. This in turn suggests that budgets deficits in our sample of countries are sustainable, an important conclusion with many real world economic implications. The conflict between single country results and panel results suggests that univariate procedures may lead to the wrong conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Shazali Abu Mansor & Chin-Hong Puah, 2009. "Testing Stationarity of Budgetary Position in Developing Countries," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 1(2), pages 77-87, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:erh:journl:v:1:y:2009:i:2:p:77-87
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budgetary Position; Stationarity; Sustainability; Government Intertemporal Budget Constraint;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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