Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v49y2019icp156-165.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

From efficient markets to adaptive markets: Evidence from the French stock exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Boya, Christophe M.
Abstract
This paper examines the degree of market efficiency of the French Stock Market and tries to check both the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and the adaptative market hypothesis (AMH). We use a rolling variance ratio test approach in order to provide an overview of the efficiency behavior from 1988 to 2018. We find that our results are consistent with the AMH. Indeed, it seems that the French stock market presents successive periods of efficiency and inefficiency. Moreover, inefficiency periods coincide with major macroeconomics events.

Suggested Citation

  • Boya, Christophe M., 2019. "From efficient markets to adaptive markets: Evidence from the French stock exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 156-165.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:49:y:2019:i:c:p:156-165
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.03.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531918309474
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.03.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean Matouk & Jean-Louis Monino, 2005. "Le marché de Paris a la mémoire courte !," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 81(4), pages 133-155.
    2. Alexandru Todea & Maria Ulici & Simona Silaghi, 2009. "Adaptive Markets Hypothesis - Evidence from Asia-Pacific Financial Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 1(1), pages 007-013, December.
    3. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    4. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2008. "Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 518-532, June.
    5. Christine Stachowiak, 2004. "Prévisibilité des rentabilités boursières. Une étude empirique du marché boursier français sur données intraquotidiennes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 166(5), pages 71-85.
    6. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
    7. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Ambiguity, Information Quality, and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 197-228, February.
    8. Katusiime, Lorna & Shamsuddin, Abul & Agbola, Frank W., 2015. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and profitability of trading rules: Evidence from a developing country," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 315-332.
    9. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    10. Valérie Mignon, 1998. "Méthodes d'estimation de l'exposant de Hurst. Application aux rentabilités boursières," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 132(1), pages 193-214.
    11. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A. & Ulrich, Joshua M., 2009. "The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 467-488, April.
    12. Christine Stachowiak, 2004. "Prévisibilité des rentabilités boursières. Une étude empirique du marché boursier français sur données intraquotidiennes," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 166(5), pages 71-85.
    13. Liu, Christina Y & He, Jia, 1991. "A Variance-Ratio Test of Random Walks in Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 773-785, June.
    14. Shan, Liwei & Gong, Stephen X., 2012. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Wenchuan Earthquake," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 36-47.
    15. Choi, In, 1999. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis for Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 293-308, May-June.
    16. Miller, Merton H & Muthuswamy, Jayaram & Whaley, Robert E, 1994. "Mean Reversion of Standard & Poor's 500 Index Basis Changes: Arbitrage-Induced or Statistical Illusion?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 479-513, June.
    17. Ito, Mikio & Sugiyama, Shunsuke, 2009. "Measuring the degree of time varying market inefficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 62-64, April.
    18. Ser‐Huang Poon, 1996. "Persistence and mean reversion in UK stock returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 2(2), pages 169-196, July.
    19. Christophe Boya & Jean-Louis Monino, 2010. "The impact of exogenous information on stock value through the coloration concept: a test model," Journal of Innovation Economics, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 163-180.
    20. Maria Rosa Borges, 2010. "Efficient market hypothesis in European stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 711-726.
    21. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
    22. Wright, Jonathan H, 2000. "Alternative Variance-Ratio Tests Using Ranks and Signs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-9, January.
    23. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    24. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2016. "Are stock markets really efficient? Evidence of the adaptive market hypothesis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 39-49.
    25. Mobarek, Asma & Fiorante, Angelo, 2014. "The prospects of BRIC countries: Testing weak-form market efficiency," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 217-232.
    26. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
    27. Urquhart, Andrew & Hudson, Robert, 2013. "Efficient or adaptive markets? Evidence from major stock markets using very long run historic data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 130-142.
    28. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    29. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2002. "The Random Walk Hypothesis and the Behavior of Foreign Capital Portfolio Flows: the Brazilian Stock Market Case," Working Papers Series 58, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    30. Kim, Jae H., 2006. "Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 38-43, July.
    31. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Kumari, Jyoti, 2014. "Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India," MPRA Paper 58378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Christophe Boya, 2017. "Testing capital market efficiency," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 19(2), pages 194-224.
    33. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    34. Kim, Jae H., 2009. "Automatic variance ratio test under conditional heteroskedasticity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 179-185, September.
    35. Kian-Ping Lim & Weiwei Luo & Jae H. Kim, 2013. "Are US stock index returns predictable? Evidence from automatic autocorrelation-based tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 953-962, March.
    36. Kwong-C. Cheung & J. Andrew Coutts, 2001. "A note on weak form market efficiency in security prices: evidence from the Hong Kong stock exchange," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 407-410.
    37. Khuntia, Sashikanta & Pattanayak, J.K., 2018. "Adaptive market hypothesis and evolving predictability of bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 26-28.
    38. Hiremath, Gourishankar S. & Narayan, Seema, 2016. "Testing the adaptive market hypothesis and its determinants for the Indian stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 173-180.
    39. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    40. Gilbert Colletaz, 2006. "A Simple Multiple Variance-Ratio Test Based on Ranks," Working Papers halshs-00007801, HAL.
    41. Ahmad, Rubi & Rhee, S. Ghon & Wong, Yuen Meng, 2012. "Foreign exchange market efficiency under recent crises: Asia-Pacific focus," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1574-1592.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yingqi & Ba, Shusong & Yang, Qing & Yuan, Tian & Zhao, Haibo & Zhou, Ming & Bartocci, Pietro & Fantozzi, Francesco, 2021. "Efficiency of China’s carbon market: A case study of Hubei pilot market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    2. Thiago Christiano Silva & Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Idamar Magalhães Ferreira, 2019. "Modeling Investor Behavior Using Machine Learning: Mean-Reversion and Momentum Trading Strategies," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-14, December.
    3. Adedoyin Isola LAWAL & Ezekiel OSENI & Abiola John ASALEYE & Bukola LAWAL-ADEDOYIN & Rachael OJEKA-JOHN, 2021. "Is the Stock Market Efficient? Evidence from Nonlinear Unit Root Tests for Nigeria," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(5), pages 384-395, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
    2. Pınar Evrim Mandacı & F. Dilvin Taskın & Zeliha Can Ergun, 2019. "Adaptive Market Hypothesis," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 84-101.
    3. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2016. "Are stock markets really efficient? Evidence of the adaptive market hypothesis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 39-49.
    4. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    5. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    6. Mirzaee Ghazani, Majid & Khalili Araghi, Mansour, 2014. "Evaluation of the adaptive market hypothesis as an evolutionary perspective on market efficiency: Evidence from the Tehran stock exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 50-59.
    7. Aye, Goodness C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "The efficiency of the art market: Evidence from variance ratio tests, linear and nonlinear fractional integration approaches," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 283-294.
    8. Siddique, Maryam, 2023. "Does the Adaptive Market Hypothesis Exist in Equity Market? Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," OSF Preprints 9b5dx, Center for Open Science.
    9. Rahman, Md. Lutfur & Lee, Doowon & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2017. "Time-varying return predictability in South Asian equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 179-200.
    10. Verheyden, Tim & De Moor, Lieven & Van den Bossche, Filip, 2015. "Towards a new framework on efficient markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 294-308.
    11. Biswabhusan Bhuyan & Subhamitra Patra & Ranjan Kumar Bhuian, 2020. "Market Adaptability and Evolving Predictability of Stock Returns: An Evidence from India," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(4), pages 605-619, December.
    12. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Fouilloux, Jessica, 2011. "Testing the martingale difference hypothesis in CO2 emission allowances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 27-35.
    13. Md Lutfur Rahman & Mahbub Khan & Samuel A. Vigne & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2021. "Equity return predictability, its determinants, and profitable trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 162-186, January.
    14. Graham Smith & Aneta Dyakova, 2014. "African Stock Markets: Efficiency and Relative Predictability," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 258-275, June.
    15. Andrew Urquhart, 2017. "How predictable are precious metal returns?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1390-1413, November.
    16. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance‐Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    17. Omid Sabbaghi & Navid Sabbaghi, 2017. "The Chicago Climate Exchange and market efficiency: an empirical analysis," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 19(4), pages 711-734, October.
    18. Fathia Elleuch Lahyani, 2014. "Are MENA and Pacific Basin Stock Equity Markets Predictable?," SAGE Open, , vol. 4(4), pages 21582440145, December.
    19. Sashikanta Khuntia & J. K. Pattanayak, 2020. "Evolving Efficiency of Exchange Rate Movement: An Evidence from Indian Foreign Exchange Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(4), pages 956-969, August.
    20. Montagnoli, Alberto & de Vries, Frans P., 2010. "Carbon trading thickness and market efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1331-1336, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adaptive markets; Efficient markets; Rolling variance ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:49:y:2019:i:c:p:156-165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.