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Developing flexible management strategies in infrastructure: The sequential expansion problem for infrastructure analysis (SEPIA)

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  • Lozano, Jorge-Mario
  • Zuluaga, Santiago
  • Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio
Abstract
Infrastructure systems are usually designed to operate over long time periods. This leads to complex decisions in which the incorporation of risk management strategies is crucial to guarantee a successful operation. Traditional engineering practices focus on finding a fixed set of parameters that fulfill operational objectives throughout the project. This approach is mostly prescriptive and therefore cannot adapt to unexpected changes of external conditions. This work considers an infrastructure network designed to attend a stochastic demand expected to increase over time. The paper presents a model that is capable of integrating different aspects of the decision-making process in a cost-effective manner and incorporates the idea of flexibility. The proposed approach is referred to as Sequential Expansion Problem for Infrastructure Analysis (SEPIA). This approach is based on real performance data acquisition, optimization of decisions given possible future scenarios, and a scheduling strategy that allows operating interconnected components in an infrastructure network. The paper also presents a computational implementation that can effectively find solutions for large decision spaces. Through two examples, it is shown that incorporating flexibility in the decision strategies allows simulating more realistic decision scenarios, as well as improving the long-term performance of the system compared to traditional approaches.

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  • Lozano, Jorge-Mario & Zuluaga, Santiago & Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio, 2020. "Developing flexible management strategies in infrastructure: The sequential expansion problem for infrastructure analysis (SEPIA)," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:200:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019310695
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.106951
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mauricio Sánchez-Silva & Georgia-Ann Klutke, 2016. "Reliability and Life-Cycle Analysis of Deteriorating Systems," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Springer, number 978-3-319-20946-3, March.
    2. Páez-Pérez, David & Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio, 2016. "A dynamic principal-agent framework for modeling the performance of infrastructure," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 254(2), pages 576-594.
    3. Papakonstantinou, K.G. & Shinozuka, M., 2014. "Planning structural inspection and maintenance policies via dynamic programming and Markov processes. Part II: POMDP implementation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 214-224.
    4. Hong, H.P. & Zhou, W. & Zhang, S. & Ye, W., 2014. "Optimal condition-based maintenance decisions for systems with dependent stochastic degradation of components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 276-288.
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    6. Michel-Alexandre Cardin & Qihui Xie & Tsan Sheng Ng & Shuming Wang & Junfei Hu, 2017. "An approach for analyzing and managing flexibility in engineering systems design based on decision rules and multistage stochastic programming," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 1-12, January.
    7. Hans T.J. Smit, 2003. "Infrastructure Investment as a Real Options Game: The Case of European Airport Expansion," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 32(4), Winter.
    8. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Ansar, Atif & Budzier, Alexander & Buhl, Søren & Cantarelli, Chantal & Garbuio, Massimo & Glenting, Carsten & Holm, Mette Skamris & Lovallo, Dan & Lunn, Daniel & Molin, Eric & Rønnes, 2018. "Five things you should know about cost overrun," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 174-190.
    9. Ozgur Baskan, 2013. "Determining Optimal Link Capacity Expansions in Road Networks Using Cuckoo Search Algorithm with Lévy Flights," Journal of Applied Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2013, pages 1-11, September.
    10. Memarzadeh, Milad & Pozzi, Matteo, 2016. "Value of information in sequential decision making: Component inspection, permanent monitoring and system-level scheduling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 137-151.
    11. Papakonstantinou, K.G. & Shinozuka, M., 2014. "Planning structural inspection and maintenance policies via dynamic programming and Markov processes. Part I: Theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 202-213.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuan, Xian-Xun & Higo, Eishiro & Pandey, Mahesh D., 2021. "Estimation of the value of an inspection and maintenance program: A Bayesian gamma process model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Winston Jerónimo Silvestre & Ana Fonseca & Sandra Naomi Morioka, 2022. "Strategic sustainability integration: Merging management tools to support business model decisions," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 2052-2067, July.
    3. Torres-Rincón, Samuel & Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio & Bastidas-Arteaga, Emilio, 2021. "A multistage stochastic program for the design and management of flexible infrastructure networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).

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