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Investor heterogeneity and the cross-sectional stock returns in China

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  • Opie, Wei
  • Zhang, Hong Feng
Abstract
We examine the relationship between divergence of opinion and the cross-sectional stock returns in Chinese A share market where short-selling of stocks is prohibited by law. Using a proxy for divergence of opinion among the entire investor base, we document a positive relationship between divergent beliefs and future stock returns. This is in sharp contrast to Miller's (1977) prediction of a negative relationship between the two. The result is likely to be driven by the dominance of individual investors and their speculative trading behaviors in China. Miller's prediction is confirmed when divergence of opinion is measured using data on mutual fund holdings. Our results are robust to a number of common return predictors. We also find a significantly negative relationship between the fraction of tradable shares in listed Chinese companies and future stock returns. Increase in the fraction of tradable shares tends to reduce the predictability of stock returns using divergence of opinion.

Suggested Citation

  • Opie, Wei & Zhang, Hong Feng, 2013. "Investor heterogeneity and the cross-sectional stock returns in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:1-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2013.08.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Chen, Chun-Da & Demirer, Riza & Jategaonkar, Shrikant P., 2015. "Risk and return in the Chinese stock market: Does equity return dispersion proxy risk?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 23-37.
    3. Lin, Hung-Wen & Huang, Jing-Bo & Lin, Kun-Ben & Zhang, Joyce & Chen, Shu-Heng, 2020. "Which is the better fourth factor in China? Reversal or turnover?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Chen, Lin & Qin, Lu & Zhu, Hongquan, 2015. "Opinion divergence, unexpected trading volume and stock returns: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 119-127.
    5. Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Yu Cai & Ran Tao, 2020. "Can Stock Investor Sentiment Be Contagious in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Hu, Yingyi & Zhao, Tiao & Zhang, Lin, 2020. "Noise trading, institutional trading, and opinion divergence: Evidence on intraday data in the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 74-89.
    7. Cheng, Feiyang & Wang, Chunfeng & Cui, Xin & Wu, Ji & He, Feng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty exposure and stock price bubbles: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Short sale constraints; Dispersion of opinion; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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