Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v68y2021ics0927538x19305402.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Jumps at ultra-high frequency: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Chuanhai
  • Liu, Zhi
  • Liu, Qiang
Abstract
This paper investigates the magnitude of the jump component to total price variance in the Chinese stock market based on the highest resolution data. We apply the newly proposed jump test for semi-martingale contaminated by microstructure noise based on the truncated pre-averaging bi-power estimation. Theoretically, we prove that such test achieves satisfactory asymptotic size and power. The universal threshold technique can also be adopted to avoid spurious detections and the Monte Carlo simulations show reasonable performance of the test in noisy setting. The empirical results imply that jump variation is an order of magnitude smaller than typical estimates found in the existing literature from different angles, and the further empirical results also support these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Chuanhai & Liu, Zhi & Liu, Qiang, 2021. "Jumps at ultra-high frequency: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:68:y:2021:i:c:s0927538x19305402
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101420
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X19305402
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101420?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. F. M. Bandi & J. R. Russell, 2008. "Microstructure Noise, Realized Variance, and Optimal Sampling," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(2), pages 339-369.
    2. Mykland, Per A. & Zhang, Lan, 2016. "Between data cleaning and inference: Pre-averaging and robust estimators of the efficient price," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(2), pages 242-262.
    3. Jacod, Jean & Li, Yingying & Mykland, Per A. & Podolskij, Mark & Vetter, Mathias, 2009. "Microstructure noise in the continuous case: The pre-averaging approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(7), pages 2249-2276, July.
    4. Dungey, Mardi & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Matei, Marius & Yang, Xiye, 2018. "Testing for mutually exciting jumps and financial flights in high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 18-44.
    5. Podolskij, Mark & Vetter, Mathias, 2009. "Bipower-type estimation in a noisy diffusion setting," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(9), pages 2803-2831, September.
    6. Christensen, Kim & Oomen, Roel C.A. & Podolskij, Mark, 2014. "Fact or friction: Jumps at ultra high frequency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 576-599.
    7. Andersen, Torben G. & Dobrev, Dobrislav & Schaumburg, Ernst, 2012. "Jump-robust volatility estimation using nearest neighbor truncation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 75-93.
    8. Nikolaus Hautsch & Mark Podolskij, 2013. "Preaveraging-Based Estimation of Quadratic Variation in the Presence of Noise and Jumps: Theory, Implementation, and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 165-183, April.
    9. Corsi, Fulvio & Pirino, Davide & Renò, Roberto, 2010. "Threshold bipower variation and the impact of jumps on volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(2), pages 276-288, December.
    10. Bing-Yi Jing & Zhi Liu & Xin-Bing Kong, 2014. "On the Estimation of Integrated Volatility With Jumps and Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 457-467, July.
    11. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    12. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Jean Jacod, 2012. "Analyzing the Spectrum of Asset Returns: Jump and Volatility Components in High Frequency Data," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1007-1050, December.
    13. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2006. "Econometrics of Testing for Jumps in Financial Economics Using Bipower Variation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30.
    14. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280, May.
    15. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling, and Forecasting of Return Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 701-720, November.
    16. Lee, Suzanne S. & Mykland, Per A., 2012. "Jumps in equilibrium prices and market microstructure noise," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 396-406.
    17. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:2:p:242-255 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Jiang, George J. & Lo, Ingrid, 2014. "Private information flow and price discovery in the U.S. treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 118-133.
    19. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Jialin Yu, 2008. "High Frequency Market Microstructure Noise Estimates and Liquidity Measures," NBER Working Papers 13825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Haiqiang Chen & Qian Han & Yingxing Li & Kai Wu, 2013. "Does Index Futures Trading Reduce Volatility in the Chinese Stock Market? A Panel Data Evaluation Approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(12), pages 1167-1190, December.
    21. Lee, Suzanne S. & Hannig, Jan, 2010. "Detecting jumps from Lévy jump diffusion processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 271-290, May.
    22. Christensen, Kim & Hounyo, Ulrich & Podolskij, Mark, 2018. "Is the diurnal pattern sufficient to explain intraday variation in volatility? A nonparametric assessment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 336-362.
    23. repec:hal:journl:peer-00741630 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Range‐Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1047-1091, June.
    25. Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2005. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility With Noisy High-Frequency Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1394-1411, December.
    26. Shoudong Chen & Yan-lin Sun & Yang Liu, 2018. "Forecast of stock price fluctuation based on the perspective of volume information in stock and exchange market," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(3), pages 297-314, May.
    27. Yucheng Sun, 2019. "Detecting price jumps in the presence of market microstructure noise," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 769-793, July.
    28. Prosper Dovonon & Sílvia Gonçalves & Ulrich Hounyo & Nour Meddahi, 2019. "Bootstrapping High-Frequency Jump Tests," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(526), pages 793-803, April.
    29. repec:wyi:journl:002169 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    31. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Mykland, Per A. & Zhang, Lan, 2011. "Ultra high frequency volatility estimation with dependent microstructure noise," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 160-175, January.
    32. Christensen, K. & Podolskij, M. & Thamrongrat, N. & Veliyev, B., 2017. "Inference from high-frequency data: A subsampling approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 245-272.
    33. Worawuth Kongsilp & Cesario Mateus, 2017. "Volatility risk and stock return predictability on global financial crises," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(1), pages 33-66, February.
    34. Xin Huang & George Tauchen, 2005. "The Relative Contribution of Jumps to Total Price Variance," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 456-499.
    35. O. E. Barndorff-Nielsen & P. Reinhard Hansen & A. Lunde & N. Shephard, 2009. "Realized kernels in practice: trades and quotes," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 1-32, November.
    36. Jean Jacod & Yingying Li & Xinghua Zheng, 2017. "Statistical Properties of Microstructure Noise," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 1133-1174, July.
    37. Suzanne S. Lee & Per A. Mykland, 2008. "Jumps in Financial Markets: A New Nonparametric Test and Jump Dynamics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2535-2563, November.
    38. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Cacho-Diaz, Julio & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2015. "Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 585-606.
    39. Jiang, George J. & Oomen, Roel C.A., 2008. "Testing for jumps when asset prices are observed with noise-a "swap variance" approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 352-370, June.
    40. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    41. Mingmian Cheng & Norman R. Swanson, 2019. "Fixed and Long Time Span Jump Tests: New Monte Carlo and Empirical Evidence," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-32, March.
    42. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Jacod, Jean & Li, Jia, 2012. "Testing for jumps in noisy high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 207-222.
    43. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April.
    44. Jacod, Jean & Mykland, Per A., 2015. "Microstructure noise in the continuous case: Approximate efficiency of the adaptive pre-averaging method," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 125(8), pages 2910-2936.
    45. Jiang, George J. & Lo, Ingrid & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2011. "Information Shocks, Liquidity Shocks, Jumps, and Price Discovery: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 527-551, April.
    46. Boswijk, H. Peter & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Yang, Xiye, 2018. "Testing for self-excitation in jumps," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 256-266.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Chuanhai & Ma, Huan & Liao, Xiaosai, 2023. "Futures trading activity and the jump risk of spot market: Evidence from the bitcoin market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Hassan Zada & Huma Maqsood & Shakeel Ahmed & Muhammad Zeb Khan, 2023. "Information shocks, market returns and volatility: a comparative analysis of developed equity markets in Asia," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, January.
    3. Song, Yuping & Huang, Jiefei & Zhang, Qichao & Xu, Yang, 2024. "Heterogeneity effect of positive and negative jumps on the realized volatility: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maneesoonthorn, Worapree & Martin, Gael M. & Forbes, Catherine S., 2020. "High-frequency jump tests: Which test should we use?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 478-487.
    2. Christensen, K. & Podolskij, M. & Thamrongrat, N. & Veliyev, B., 2017. "Inference from high-frequency data: A subsampling approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(2), pages 245-272.
    3. Bu, Ruijun & Hizmeri, Rodrigo & Izzeldin, Marwan & Murphy, Anthony & Tsionas, Mike, 2023. "The contribution of jump signs and activity to forecasting stock price volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    4. Liu, Lily Y. & Patton, Andrew J. & Sheppard, Kevin, 2015. "Does anything beat 5-minute RV? A comparison of realized measures across multiple asset classes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 293-311.
    5. Kim Christensen & Ulrich Hounyo & Mark Podolskij, 2017. "Is the diurnal pattern sufficient to explain the intraday variation in volatility? A nonparametric assessment," CREATES Research Papers 2017-30, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Liu, Yi & Liu, Huifang & Zhang, Lei, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting return jumps using realized variation measures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 63-80.
    7. Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Gael M Martin & Catherine S Forbes, 2018. "Dynamic price jumps: The performance of high frequency tests and measures, and the robustness of inference," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/18, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    8. Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Gael M. Martin & Catherine S. Forbes, 2017. "Dynamic asset price jumps and the performance of high frequency tests and measures," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    9. Christensen, Kim & Oomen, Roel C.A. & Podolskij, Mark, 2014. "Fact or friction: Jumps at ultra high frequency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 576-599.
    10. Li, Z. Merrick & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Vellekoop, Michel H., 2020. "Dependent microstructure noise and integrated volatility estimation from high-frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 536-558.
    11. Christensen, Kim & Oomen, Roel & Podolskij, Mark, 2010. "Realised quantile-based estimation of the integrated variance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 74-98, November.
    12. Zhao, X. & Hong, S. Y. & Linton, O. B., 2024. "Jumps Versus Bursts: Dissection and Origins via a New Endogenous Thresholding Approach," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2449, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Konstantinos Gkillas & Dimitrios Vortelinos & Christos Floros & Alexandros Garefalakis & Nikolaos Sariannidis, 2020. "Greek sovereign crisis and European exchange rates: effects of news releases and their providers," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 294(1), pages 515-536, November.
    14. Pierre Bajgrowicz & Olivier Scaillet & Adrien Treccani, 2016. "Jumps in High-Frequency Data: Spurious Detections, Dynamics, and News," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(8), pages 2198-2217, August.
    15. Xin Zhang & Donggyu Kim & Yazhen Wang, 2016. "Jump Variation Estimation with Noisy High Frequency Financial Data via Wavelets," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-26, August.
    16. Zhao, X. & Hong, S. Y. & Linton, O. B., 2024. "Jumps Versus Bursts: Dissection and Origins via a New Endogenous Thresholding Approach," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2423, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Andersen, Torben G. & Li, Yingying & Todorov, Viktor & Zhou, Bo, 2023. "Volatility measurement with pockets of extreme return persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    18. Hassan Zada & Arshad Hassan & Wing-Keung Wong, 2021. "Do Jumps Matter in Both Equity Market Returns and Integrated Volatility: A Comparison of Asian Developed and Emerging Markets," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-26, June.
    19. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    20. Prosper Dovonon & Sílvia Gonçalves & Ulrich Hounyo & Nour Meddahi, 2019. "Bootstrapping High-Frequency Jump Tests," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(526), pages 793-803, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:68:y:2021:i:c:s0927538x19305402. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.