Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v55y2020icp26-38.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A New Developmentalist model of structural change, economic growth and middle-income traps

Author

Listed:
  • Oreiro, José L.
  • da Silva, Kalinka M.
  • Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J.
Abstract
When a rapidly growing country stagnates at middle-income levels and fails to transition into a high-income economy, we say it has fallen into a middle-income trap. An original interpretation of the causes of this phenomenon was offered in recent years by the so-called Brazilian New Developmentalist School. It must be noted, however, that this approach lacks a coherent formalization of its main propositions. This article aims at filling this gap in the literature. We assess, analytically and through numerical simulations, whether the Dutch disease can be propelled by the discovery of natural resources and the adoption of an external savings growth strategy. In both cases, a class coalition between workers and rentiers leads to an overvaluation of the real exchange rate. As a consequence, inflation is kept under control while artificially increasing real wages and financial incomes. The model provides a bridge between classical development theory and demand-led growth theories, drawing on elements from both traditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Oreiro, José L. & da Silva, Kalinka M. & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2020. "A New Developmentalist model of structural change, economic growth and middle-income traps," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 26-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:55:y:2020:i:c:p:26-38
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2020.07.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X20303830
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.07.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raphael Rocha Gouvêa & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2013. "Balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth in a multisectoral framework," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(2), pages 240-254, May.
    2. José Luis Oreiro & Luciano Manarin D'Agostini & Fabrício Vieira & Luciano Carvalho, 2018. "Revisiting the Growth of Brazilian Economy (1980-2012)," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 71(285), pages 203-229.
    3. McMillan, Margaret & Rodrik, Dani & Verduzco-Gallo, Íñigo, 2014. "Globalization, Structural Change, and Productivity Growth, with an Update on Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 11-32.
    4. João P. Romerojpromero & Gustavo Britto, 2017. "Increasing returns to scale, technological catch-up and research intensity: endogenising the Verdoorn coefficient," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 41(2), pages 391-412.
    5. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2016. "The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(4), pages 507-538, December.
    6. Marc Lavoie, 2014. "Post-Keynesian Economics: New Foundations," Post-Print hal-01343652, HAL.
    7. Stefano Zambelli, 2011. "Flexible Accelerator Economic Systems As Coupled Oscillators," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 608-633, July.
    8. Dani Rodrik, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
    9. Cimoli, Mario & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu & Porcile, Gabriel, 2016. "The production structure, exchange rate preferences and the short-run—Medium-run macrodynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 13-26.
    10. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos & Gala, Paulo, 2010. "Macroeconomia estruturalista do desenvolvimento," Textos para discussão 275, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    11. Mark Setterfield (ed.), 2002. "The Economics of Demand-Led Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1864.
    12. Ros, Jaime, 2013. "Rethinking Economic Development, Growth, and Institutions," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199684816.
    13. McCombie, J S L & de Ridder, J R, 1984. ""The Verdoorn Law Controversy": Some New Empirical Evidence Using U.S. State Data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 268-284, June.
    14. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos & Araújo, Eliane Cristina & Costa Peres, Samuel, 2020. "An alternative to the middle-income trap," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 294-312.
    15. Mark Setterfield, 1997. "Rapid Growth and Relative Decline," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-37587-1, December.
    16. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Daniele Tavani & Luca Zamparelli, 2017. "Endogenous Technical Change In Alternative Theories Of Growth And Distribution," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1272-1303, December.
    17. Szirmai, Adam & Verspagen, Bart, 2015. "Manufacturing and economic growth in developing countries, 1950–2005," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 46-59.
    18. Robert Rowthorn & Ramana Ramaswamy, 1999. "Growth, Trade, and Deindustrialization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 1-2.
    19. Fernando J. Cardim de Carvalho, 1992. "Mr Keynes And The Post Keynesians," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 79.
    20. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2020. "Structural change in a growing open economy: Attitudes and institutions in Latin America and Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 358-385.
    21. Amitava K. Dutt (ed.), 1994. "New Directions In Analytical Political Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 157.
    22. Rodríguez, Octavio, 2009. "O estruturalismo latino-americano," Oficina de la CEPAL en Brasilia (Estudios e Investigaciones) 28400, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    23. José Luis Oreiro & Luciano D’Agostini, 2017. "Macroeconomic policy regimes, real exchange rate overvaluation, and performance of the Brazilian economy (2003–2015)," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 27-42, January.
    24. Gabriel, Luciano Ferreira & Jayme, Frederico G. & Oreiro, José Luis, 2016. "A North-South Model of Economic Growth, Technological Gap, Structural Change and Real Exchange Rate," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 83-94.
    25. Botta, Alberto, 2009. "A structuralist North-South model on structural change, economic growth and catching-up," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 61-73, March.
    26. Fabio Freitas & Franklin Serrano, 2015. "Growth Rate and Level Effects, the Stability of the Adjustment of Capacity to Demand and the Sraffian Supermultiplier," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 258-281, July.
    27. Journal of Economics Library, 2015. "New Economics Books," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 380-426, December.
    28. Szirmai, Adam, 2012. "Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950–2005," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 406-420.
    29. Marconi, Nelson & Reis, Cristina Fróes de Borja & Araújo, Eliane Cristina de, 2016. "Manufacturing and economic development: The actuality of Kaldor's first and second laws," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 75-89.
    30. Dani Rodrik, 2013. "Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(1), pages 165-204.
    31. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, 2019. "From classical developmentalism and post-Keynesian macroeconomics to new developmentalism," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 39(2), pages 187-210.
    32. A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The Nature of Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2579.
    33. Journal of Economics Library, 2015. "New Economics Books," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 214-284, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abdallah, Ali, 2022. "Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique [Can real currency depreciation lead growth?]," MPRA Paper 113183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Guarini, Giulio & da Costa Oreiro, José Luis, 2023. "Ecological transition and structural change: A new-developmentalist analysis," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Carlos Bianchi & Fernando Isabella & Santiago Picasso, 2023. "Growth slowdowns at middle income levels: Identifying mechanisms of external constraints," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 288-305, May.
    4. Cunha, André Moreira & Lélis, Marcos Tadeu Caputi & Haines, Andrés Ernesto Ferrari & Franke, Luciane, 2023. "Exports of manufactured goods and structural change: Brazil in the face of Chinese competition," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    5. Marcelo Arend & Vinicius Zuniga Fagotti & Glaison Augusto Guerrero & Pedro Cezar Dutra Fonseca & Julimar da Silva Bichara, 2023. "Development strategies and path dependence: Institutional elements for making sense of Brazil's falling behind and South Korea's forging ahead," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 76(305), pages 155-180.
    6. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "Thirlwall's law: Binding-constraint or centre-of-gravity? A possible Kaleckian solution," Department of Economics University of Siena 853, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    7. Xiaoshan Hu & Guanghua Wan & Chen Yang & Anqi Zhang, 2023. "Inequality and the middle‐income trap," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 1684-1710, October.
    8. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    9. Alfano, Lucia, 2022. "The new developmental state and the challenges of the socio-ecological transformation: Lessons from Argentina and Brazil," IPE Working Papers 189/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    10. Zhang, Lili & Yang, Dexiang & Guo, Yunfei, 2023. "Dual circulation development model and credit growth," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    11. Wolf, Christina, 2023. "Demand-growth in support of structural change: Evidence from Nigeria's formal manufacturing sector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 347-358.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jose Luis Oreiro & Kalinka Martins da Silva, 2022. "Structuralist Development Macroeconomics and New Developmentalism: Theoretical Foundations and Recent Developments," Working Papers PKWP2204, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    2. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    3. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2018. "Alternative Approaches to Technological Change when Growth is BoPC," Department of Economics University of Siena 795, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    4. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil & Oreiro, José, 2021. "A song of ice and fire: Competitiveness in an export-led growing economy," MPRA Paper 109821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. R, Rekha & M, Suresh Babu, 2022. "Premature deindustrialisation and growth slowdowns in middle-income countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 377-389.
    6. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2020. "Alternative approaches to technological change in a small open economy," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 279-317, April.
    7. Haraguchi, Nobuya & Martorano, Bruno & Sanfilippo, Marco, 2019. "What factors drive successful industrialization? Evidence and implications for developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 266-276.
    8. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "Thirlwall's law: Binding-constraint or centre-of-gravity? A possible Kaleckian solution," Department of Economics University of Siena 853, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    9. José Luis Oreiro & Fabricio Missio & Frederico G. Jayme Jr., 2015. "Capital Accumulation, Structural Change and Real Exchange Rate in a Keynesian-Structuralist Growth Model," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(2), pages 237-256, June.
    10. Di Meglio, Gisela & Gallego, Jorge, 2022. "Disentangling services in developing regions: A test of Kaldor's first and second laws," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 221-229.
    11. Haraguchi, Nobuya & Cheng, Charles Fang Chin & Smeets, Eveline, 2017. "The Importance of Manufacturing in Economic Development: Has This Changed?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 293-315.
    12. Jose Luis da Costa Oreiro & Stefan Wilson d'Amato & Luciano Luiz Manarin D'Agostini & Paulo Sergio de Oliveira Simoes Gala, 2022. "Measuring the technological backwardness of middle-and low-income countries: The employment quality gap and its relationship with the per capita income gap," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 75(301), pages 139-159.
    13. Lavopa, Alejandro & Szirmai, Adam, 2018. "Structural modernisation and development traps. An empirical approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 59-73.
    14. Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Does the structure of employment affect the external imbalances? Theory and evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 77-83.
    15. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Path dependence, distributive cycles and export capacity in a BoPC growth model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 258-272.
    16. Valeriy V. Mironov & Liudmila D. Konovalova, 2019. "Structural changes and economic growth in the world economy and Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, April.
    17. Gabriel, Luciano Ferreira & Jayme, Frederico G. & Oreiro, José Luis, 2016. "A North-South Model of Economic Growth, Technological Gap, Structural Change and Real Exchange Rate," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 83-94.
    18. Gabriel, Luciano Ferreira & de Santana Ribeiro, Luiz Carlos, 2019. "Economic growth and manufacturing: An analysis using Panel VAR and intersectoral linkages," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 43-61.
    19. Boire, Sidiki & Nell, Kevin S., 2021. "The enclave hypothesis and Dutch disease effect: A critical appraisal of Mali's gold mining industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    20. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Distributive cycles and endogenous technical change in a BoPC growth model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-233.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    New developmentalism; Demand-led growth; Structural change; Exchange rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:55:y:2020:i:c:p:26-38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.