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Spillovers across macroeconomic, financial and real estate uncertainties: A time-varying approach

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  • Gabauer, David
  • Gupta, Rangan
Abstract
We investigate the spillover across real estate (REU), macroeconomic (MU) and financial uncertainties (FU) in the United States based on monthly data covering the period of July, 1970 to December, 2017. To estimate the propagation of uncertainties across the sectors, a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR)-based connectedness procedure has been applied. In sum, we show that that since the 1970s, FU has been the main transmitter of shocks driving both, MU and REU, with MU dominating the REU. Our results support the need for better macroprudential policy decisions.

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  • Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Spillovers across macroeconomic, financial and real estate uncertainties: A time-varying approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 167-173.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:52:y:2020:i:c:p:167-173
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2019.09.009
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    2. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Konstantatos, Christoforos & Floros, Christos & Tsagkanos, Athanasios, 2021. "Realized volatility spillovers between US spot and futures during ECB news: Evidence from the European sovereign debt crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
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    7. Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Christophe André & Xin Sheng, 2022. "The effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on housing returns and volatility: evidence from US state-level data," Chapters, in: Charles K.Y. Leung (ed.), Handbook of Real Estate and Macroeconomics, chapter 8, pages 206-238, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Oil shocks and directional predictability of macroeconomic uncertainties of developed economies: Evidence from high‐frequency data†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 169-185, May.
    9. Ren, Xiaohang & Xiao, Ya & Duan, Kun & Urquhart, Andrew, 2024. "Spillover effects between fossil energy and green markets: Evidence from informational inefficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Wang, Kai-Hua & Kan, Jia-Min & Qiu, Lianhong & Xu, Shulin, 2023. "Climate policy uncertainty, oil price and agricultural commodity: From quantile and time perspective," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 256-272.
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    12. Benjamin Kwakye & Chan Tze Haw, 2020. "Interplay of the Macroeconomy and Real Estate: Systematic Review of Literature," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 262-271.
    13. Mário Nuno Mata & Muhammad Najib Razali & Sónia R. Bentes & Isabel Vieira, 2021. "Volatility Spillover Effect of Pan-Asia’s Property Portfolio Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-20, June.
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    20. Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Roubaud, David, 2021. "Quantile connectedness in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    21. Zhang, Jiahao & Zhang, Yifeng & Wei, Yu & Wang, Zhuo, 2024. "Normal and extreme impact and connectedness between fossil energy futures markets and uncertainties: Does El Niño-Southern Oscillation matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 188-215.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic connectedness; Uncertainty transmission; Real estate uncertainty; Macroeconomic uncertainty; Financial uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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