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An expectations-driven interpretation of the “Great Recession”

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  • Gunn, Christopher M.
  • Johri, Alok
Abstract
The boom-years preceding the “great recession” were a time of rapid innovation in the financial industry. We explore the idea that both the boom and eventual bust emerged from overoptimistic expectations of efficiency-gains in the financial sector. We treat the bankruptcy costs facing intermediaries in a costly state verification problem as a stochastic process, and model the boom-bust in terms of an unfulfilled news-shock where the expected fall in costs are eventually not realized. In response to a change in expectations only, the model generates a boom-bust cycle in aggregate activity, asset prices and leverage, and a countercyclical credit spread.

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  • Gunn, Christopher M. & Johri, Alok, 2013. "An expectations-driven interpretation of the “Great Recession”," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 391-407.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:60:y:2013:i:4:p:391-407
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.04.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Gunn Christopher M. & Johri Alok & Letendre Marc-André, 2023. "Charge-offs, Defaults and the Financial Accelerator," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 427-471, January.
    2. Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "News Shocks under Financial Frictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 210-243, October.
    3. Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2020. "Financial intermediation, resource allocation, and macroeconomic interdependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 265-278.
    4. Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas, 2013. "News shocks and business cycles: bridging the gap from different methodologies," Working Papers 2013_25, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. Luca Gambetti & Christoph Görtz & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "The Effect of News Shocks and Monetary Policy," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 139-164, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Christopher M. Gunn, 2018. "Overaccumulation, Interest, and Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 479-511, March.
    7. Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2020. "Financial intermediation, resource allocation, and macroeconomic interdependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 265-278.
    8. Alok Johri & Terry Yip, 2017. "Financial Shocks,Supply-chain Relationships and the Great Trade Collapse," Department of Economics Working Papers 2017-11, McMaster University.
    9. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    10. Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri & Marc-Andre Letendre, 2019. "Charge-offs, Defaults and U.S. Business Cycles," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-06, McMaster University.
    11. Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2019. "Mood Swings and Business Cycles: Evidence from Sign Restrictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1623-1649, September.
    12. Alok Johri & Terry Yip, 2015. "Financial Shocks, Customer Capital and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," Department of Economics Working Papers 2015-13, McMaster University, revised Sep 2015.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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