Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v43y2021i5p944-963.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Credit access, macroprudential rules and policy interventions: Lessons for potential first time buyers

Author

Listed:
  • McQuinn, Kieran
  • O’Toole, Conor
  • Slaymaker, Rachel
Abstract
Given the increased popularity of macroprudential measures in the aftermath of the great financial crisis (GFC), a key policy question to arise in certain mortgage markets is whether a significant access to credit issue exists amongst prospective homeowners because of these new policies. In this paper we assess whether such a problem arises in the context of the Irish mortgage market – a market particularly adversely impacted by the GFC. We use a microsimulation model to estimate the level of latent credit demand that could be serviced by the market given prudent credit risk assessment and the current macroprudential regulations. We then compare this demand to current market provision to explore whether a credit gap exists. Finally, we simulate how a public mortgage credit scheme or equity “help-to-buy” type instrument may help credit access. We find both instruments to be effective but would lead to somewhat higher house prices.

Suggested Citation

  • McQuinn, Kieran & O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2021. "Credit access, macroprudential rules and policy interventions: Lessons for potential first time buyers," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 944-963.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:43:y:2021:i:5:p:944-963
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.03.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893821000600
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.03.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-992, March.
    2. Charles D. Anderson & Dennis R. Capozza & Robert Van Order, 2011. "Deconstructing a Mortgage Meltdown: A Methodology for Decomposing Underwriting Quality," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 609-631, June.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    4. Gaffney, Edward, 2019. "Mortgage borrowers at the loan-to-income limit," Financial Stability Notes 11/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Mark Freel & Sara Carter & Stephen Tagg & Colin Mason, 2012. "The latent demand for bank debt: characterizing “discouraged borrowers”," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 399-418, May.
    6. Gaffney, Edward, 2018. "Residential property price segments and mortgage finance," Financial Stability Notes 11-18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Credit availability, macroprudential regulations and the house price-to-rent ratio," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 971-984.
    8. Corrigan, Eoin & O'Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, 2020. "Credit demand in the Irish mortgage market: What is the gap and could public lending help?," Papers WP671, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 533-551, May.
    10. Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal & O’Toole, Conor, 2018. "Credit conditions, macroprudential policy and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 153-167.
    11. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
    12. Basto, R. & Gomes, S. & Lima, D., 2019. "Exploring the implications of different loan-to-value macroprudential policy designs," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 66-83.
    13. John V. Duca & Lilit Popoyan & Susan M. Wachter, 2019. "Real Estate And The Great Crisis: Lessons For Macroprudential Policy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 121-137, January.
    14. Kinghan, Christina, 2018. "Macroprudential Measures and Irish Mortgage Lending: Insights from H1 2018," Financial Stability Notes 8/FS/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    15. Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, January.
    16. Anil K Kashyap & Richard Berner & Charles A E Goodhart, 2011. "The Macroprudential Toolkit," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 145-161, June.
    17. repec:hal:pseose:hal-01301589 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Crook, Jonathan, 1999. "Who is discouraged from applying for credit?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 165-172, November.
    19. Allen, Jason & Grieder, Timothy & Peterson, Brian & Roberts, Tom, 2020. "The impact of macroprudential housing finance tools in canada," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    20. Dorothy Watson & Eoin Corrigan, 2019. "Social Housing in the Irish Housing Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 213-248.
    21. Kelly, Robert & Mazza, Elena, 2019. "A Measure of Bindingness in the Irish Mortgage Market," Financial Stability Notes 12/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    22. Kelly, Connor & McCann, Fergal, 2016. "Rental markets, savings and the accumulation of mortgage deposits," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 56-70, October.
    23. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    24. Christine Whitehead & Peter Williams, 2017. "Changes in the regulation and control of mortgage markets and access to owner-occupation among younger households," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 196, OECD Publishing.
    25. Nakatani, Ryota, 2020. "Macroprudential policy and the probability of a banking crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1169-1186.
    26. Wei Jiang & Ashlyn Aiko Nelson & Edward Vytlacil, 2014. "Liar's Loan? Effects of Origination Channel and Information Falsification on Mortgage Delinquency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(1), pages 1-18, March.
    27. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    28. Kinghan, Christina & Lyons, Paul & Mazza, Elena, 2018. "Macroprudential Measures and Irish Mortgage Lending: An Overview of 2017," Financial Stability Notes 1/FS/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    29. Ampudia, Miguel & Mayordomo, Sergio, 2018. "Borrowing constraints and housing price expectations in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 410-421.
    30. Eoin Corrigan & Daniel Foley & Kieran McQuinn & Conor O’Toole & Rachel Slaymaker, 2019. "Exploring Affordability in the Irish Housing Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 119-157.
    31. Arthur Acolin & Jesse Bricker & Paul Calem & Susan Wachter, 2016. "Borrowing Constraints and Homeownership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 625-629, May.
    32. Kinghan, Christina, 2018. "Macroprudential Measures and Irish Mortgage Lending: Insights from H1 2018," Financial Stability Notes 08-18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    33. Kinghan, Christina & Lyons, Paul & Mazza, Elena, 2018. "Macroprudential Measures and Irish Mortgage Lending: An Overview of 2017," Financial Stability Notes 01-18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    34. Fahy, Mike & O'Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2018. "The financial crisis and the changing profile of mortgage arrears in Ireland," Research Notes RN20180402, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    35. Gaffney, Edward, 2018. "Residential property price segments and mortgage finance," Financial Stability Notes 11/FS/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    36. Jiang, Wei & Nelson, Ashlyn Aiko & Vytlacil, Edward, 2013. "Delinquency model predictive power among low-documentation loans," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 171-173.
    37. Robert Kelly & Kieran McQuinn, 2014. "On the Hook for Impaired Bank Lending: Do Sovereign-Bank Interlinkages Affect the Net Cost of a Fiscal Stimulus?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 95-128, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Egan, Paul & Kenny, Eoin & McQuinn, Kieran, 2022. "Increasing future housing supply: What are the implications for the Irish economy," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Slaymaker, Rachel & Roantree, Barra & Nolan, Anne & O'Toole, Conor, 2022. "Future trends in housing tenure and the adequacy of retirement income," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS143.
    3. Disch, Wendy & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2023. "Housing affordability: Ireland in a cross-country context," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS164.
    4. Slaymaker, Rachel & Shiel, Eva, 2023. "New vs existing rental tenancies in Ireland: a first look at annual registrations microdata," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number SUSTAT122.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McQuinn, Kieran, 2020. "Property prices and Covid-19 related administrative closures: What are the implications?," Papers WP661, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal & O’Toole, Conor, 2018. "Credit conditions, macroprudential policy and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 153-167.
    3. Gaffney, Edward, 2019. "Mortgage borrowers at the loan-to-income limit," Financial Stability Notes 11/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Corrigan, Eoin & O'Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, 2020. "Credit demand in the Irish mortgage market: What is the gap and could public lending help?," Papers WP671, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Slaymaker, Rachel & Roantree, Barra & Nolan, Anne & O'Toole, Conor, 2022. "Future trends in housing tenure and the adequacy of retirement income," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS143.
    6. O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2021. "Repayment capacity, debt service ratios and mortgage default: An exploration in crisis and non-crisis periods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Nitzan Tzur-Ilan, 2018. "LTV Limits and Borrower Risk," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2018.12, Bank of Israel.
    8. O'Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2020. "Review of the Rebuilding Ireland Home Loan scheme," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS104.
    9. Allen-Coghlan, Matthew & Judge, Conor & O'Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2019. "A county level perspective on housing affordability in Ireland," Research Notes RN20190402, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Kumar Verma, Akhilesh & McQuinn, Kieran, 2024. "Assessing expectations of European house prices," Papers WP783, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. McQuinn, Kieran & O’Toole, Conor & Allen-Coghlan, Matthew & Coffey, Cathal, 2019. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2019," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC.
    12. Kelly, Robert & O’Toole, Conor, 2018. "Mortgage default, lending conditions and macroprudential policy: Loan-level evidence from UK buy-to-lets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 322-335.
    13. Kelly, Jane & Mazza, Elena, 2019. "Mortgage servicing burdens and LTI caps," Financial Stability Notes 13/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    14. John V. Duca & Lilit Popoyan & Susan M. Wachter, 2019. "Real Estate And The Great Crisis: Lessons For Macroprudential Policy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 121-137, January.
    15. Slaymaker, Rachel & O'Toole, Conor & McQuinn, Kieran & Fahy, Mike, 2018. "Monetary policy normalisation and mortgage arrears in a recovering economy: The case of the Irish residential market," Papers WP613, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. Duffy, David & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2015. "Macroprudential Policy in a Recovering Market: Too Much too Soon?," Papers WP500, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Choi, Chi-Young & Hansz, J. Andrew, 2021. "From banking integration to housing market integration - Evidence from the comovement of U.S. Metropolitan House Prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Lyons, Paul & Nevin, Ciarán & Shaw, Frances, 2019. "Real-estate concentration in the Irish banking system," Financial Stability Notes 4/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    19. Kieran McQuinn & Teresa Monteiro & Conor O’Toole, 2021. "House Price Expectations, Labour Market Developments and the House Price to Rent Ratio: A User Cost of Capital Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 25-47, January.
    20. McQuinn, Kieran & O’Toole, Conor & Allen-Coghlan, Matthew & Coffey, Cathal, 2019. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2019," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Access to credit; Macroprudential; Mortgages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R28 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Government Policy
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:43:y:2021:i:5:p:944-963. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.