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How monetary policy shaped the housing boom

Author

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  • Drechsler, Itamar
  • Savov, Alexi
  • Schnabl, Philipp
Abstract
Between 2003 and 2006, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 4.25%. Yet it was precisely during this period that the housing boom accelerated, fueled by rapid growth in mortgage lending. There is deep disagreement about how, or even if, monetary policy impacted the boom. Using differences in exposure to the deposits channel of monetary policy, we show that Fed tightening induced a large reduction in banks’ deposit funding, which led banks to contract portfolio mortgage lending by 32%. However, this contraction was largely offset by substitution to privately-securitized (PLS) mortgages, led by nonbank originators. Fed tightening thus induced a shift in mortgage lending away from stable, insured deposit funding toward run-prone and fragile capital markets funding with little impact on overall lending. We find similar results during the most recent tightening cycle over 2014–2017 when PLS lending reemerged.

Suggested Citation

  • Drechsler, Itamar & Savov, Alexi & Schnabl, Philipp, 2022. "How monetary policy shaped the housing boom," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 992-1021.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:144:y:2022:i:3:p:992-1021
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.06.039
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    Cited by:

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    2. Elliott, David & Meisenzahl, Ralf R. & Peydró, José-Luis, 2024. "Nonbank lenders as global shock absorbers: Evidence from US monetary policy spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Dominic Cucic & Denis Gorea, 2024. "Non-bank lending and the transmission of monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 1211, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Isha Agarwal & Malin Hu & Raluca Roman & Keling Zheng, 2023. "Lending by Servicing: Monetary Policy Transmission Through Shadow Banks," Working Papers 23-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Itamar Drechsler, 2023. "Comment on "Aggregate Lending and Modern Financial Intermediation: Why Bank Balance Sheet Models Are Miscalibrated" 2," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2023, volume 38, pages 293-306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Amir Takaloo & Shahla Valizadeh, 2023. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Variables through Credit and Balance Sheet Channels: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Mortgage lending; Banks; Securitization; Deposits; Private-label securitization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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