Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v142y2021i1p127-145.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unemployment and credit risk

Author

Listed:
  • Bai, Hang
Abstract
Labor market frictions help explain the credit spread puzzle. In U.S. aggregate data and newly assembled U.S. industry-level and cross-country panel datasets, the relation between unemployment and credit risk is strong and positive. In a search model of equilibrium unemployment embedded with defaultable debt and capital accumulation, search frictions create downward rigidity in expected search costs, hindering firms from repaying creditors particularly in bad times and rendering corporate debt riskier. Quantitatively, the model replicates the strongly positive relation between unemployment and credit risk as well as salient features of the credit spread, including its level, volatility, cyclicality, and skewness.

Suggested Citation

  • Bai, Hang, 2021. "Unemployment and credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 127-145.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:142:y:2021:i:1:p:127-145
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.046
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X21002397
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.046?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 213-263.
    2. repec:wop:calsdi:97-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Christopher A. Hennessy & Toni M. Whited, 2007. "How Costly Is External Financing? Evidence from a Structural Estimation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1705-1745, August.
    4. Strebulaev, Ilya A. & Whited, Toni M., 2012. "Dynamic Models and Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 6(1–2), pages 1-163, November.
    5. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    7. Garey Ramey & Wouter J. den Haan & Joel Watson, 2000. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 482-498, June.
    8. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 38-86, February.
    9. João F. Gomes & Lukas Schmid, 2021. "Equilibrium Asset Pricing with Leverage and Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 977-1018, April.
    10. Donangelo, Andres & Gourio, François & Kehrig, Matthias & Palacios, Miguel, 2019. "The cross-section of labor leverage and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 497-518.
    11. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Levered Equity Risk Premium and Credit Spreads: A Unified Framework," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 645-703, February.
    12. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April.
    13. François Gourio, 2013. "Credit Risk and Disaster Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 1-34, July.
    14. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    15. Jermann, Urban J. & Yue, Vivian Z., 2018. "Interest rate swaps and corporate default," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 104-120.
    16. Zvi Eckstein & Ofer Setty & David Weiss, 2019. "Financial Risk And Unemployment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(2), pages 475-516, May.
    17. Cristian Tiu & Uzi Yoeli, 2013. "Asset Pricing with Endogenous Disasters," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(11), pages 2916-2960.
    18. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
    19. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2016. "Unemployment and Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84(4), pages 1523-1569, July.
    21. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2014. "Risk Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 27-65, January.
    22. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2009. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1339-1369, September.
    23. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
    24. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    25. Bai, Hang & Hou, Kewei & Kung, Howard & Li, Erica X.N. & Zhang, Lu, 2019. "The CAPM strikes back? An equilibrium model with disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 269-298.
    26. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
    27. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    28. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Lu Zhang & Lars-Alexander Kuehn, 2018. "Endogenous Disasters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2212-2245, August.
    29. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    30. João Gomes & Urban Jermann & Lukas Schmid, 2016. "Sticky Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3800-3828, December.
    31. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2171-2212, December.
    32. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger & Jonathan L. Willis, 2007. "Implications of Search Frictions: Matching Aggregate and Establishment-level Observations," NBER Working Papers 13115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. K.J. Martijn Cremers & Joost Driessen & Pascal Maenhout, 2008. "Explaining the Level of Credit Spreads: Option-Implied Jump Risk Premia in a Firm Value Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 2209-2242, September.
    34. Jing-Zhi Huang & Ming Huang, 2012. "How Much of the Corporate-Treasury Yield Spread Is Due to Credit Risk?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 153-202.
    35. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
    36. Robert E. Hall, 2006. "Job Loss, Job Finding and Unemployment in the US Economy over the Past Fifty Years," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 101-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Mark Bils & Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2011. "Worker Heterogeneity and Endogenous Separations in a Matching Model of Unemployment Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 128-154, January.
    38. Nicolas Petrosky‐Nadeau & Lu Zhang, 2017. "Solving the Diamond–Mortensen–Pissarides model accurately," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), pages 611-650, July.
    39. John R. Graham, 2000. "How Big Are the Tax Benefits of Debt?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1901-1941, October.
    40. Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 987-1035, June.
    41. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    42. Antràs Pol, 2004. "Is the U.S. Aggregate Production Function Cobb-Douglas? New Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36, April.
    43. Robert J. Barro & Jose F. Ursua, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 255-350.
    44. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
    45. Jack Favilukis & Xiaoji Lin & Xiaofei Zhao, 2020. "The Elephant in the Room: The Impact of Labor Obligations on Credit Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1673-1712, June.
    46. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    47. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    48. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    49. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John & Willis, Jonathan L., 2007. "Search frictions: Matching aggregate and establishment observations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 56-78, September.
    50. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
    51. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    52. Leena Rudanko, 2011. "Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Risk in a Frictional Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2823-2843, October.
    53. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
    54. Ryan Michaels & T Beau Page & Toni M Whited, 2019. "Labor and Capital Dynamics under Financing Frictions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 279-323.
    55. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2017. "The Fundamental Surplus," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(9), pages 2630-2665, September.
    56. Long Chen & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2009. "On the Relation Between the Credit Spread Puzzle and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3367-3409, September.
    57. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    58. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2225-2241 is not listed on IDEAS
    59. Miller, Merton H, 1977. "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 261-275, May.
    60. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bai, Hang & Zhang, Lu, 2022. "Searching for the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 897-926.
    2. Saboori, Behnaz & Gholipour, Hassan F. & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Ranjbar, Omid, 2022. "Renewable energy sources and unemployment rate: Evidence from the US states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bai, Hang & Zhang, Lu, 2022. "Searching for the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 897-926.
    2. François Gourio, 2013. "Credit Risk and Disaster Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 1-34, July.
    3. Kuehn Lars-Alexander & Petrosky-Nadeau Nicolas & Zhang Lu, "undated". "An Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Labor Market Search," GSIA Working Papers 2010-E63, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    4. Heiberger, Christopher, 2020. "Labor market search, endogenous disasters and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    5. Peter Christoffersen & Du Du & Redouane Elkamhi, 2017. "Rare Disasters, Credit, and Option Market Puzzles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1341-1364, May.
    6. Jessica Wachter & Mete Kilic, 2017. "Risk, Unemployment, and the Stock Market: A Rare-Event-Based Explanation of Labor Market Volatility," 2017 Meeting Papers 129, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Eric Swanson, 2015. "A Macroeconomic Model of Equities and Real, Nominal, and Defaultable Debt," 2015 Meeting Papers 273, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Atkeson, Andrew G. & Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2017. "Measuring the financial soundness of U.S. firms, 1926–2012," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 613-635.
    9. Peter Christoffersen & Du Du & Redouane Elkamhi, 2013. "Rare Disasters and Credit Market Puzzles," CREATES Research Papers 2013-45, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    10. Bai, Hang & Hou, Kewei & Kung, Howard & Li, Erica X.N. & Zhang, Lu, 2019. "The CAPM strikes back? An equilibrium model with disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 269-298.
    11. Tyler Muir, 2017. "Financial Crises and Risk Premia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 765-809.
    12. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Disaster Risk and its Implications for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 20926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Patrick Kehoe & Elena Pastorino & Pierlauro Lopez & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2018. "Asset Prices and Unemployment Fluctuations," 2018 Meeting Papers 1119, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Marfè, Roberto & Pénasse, Julien, 2024. "Measuring macroeconomic tail risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    15. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    16. Isoré, Marlène & Szczerbowicz, Urszula, 2017. "Disaster risk and preference shifts in a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 97-125.
    17. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2016. "Do Rare Events Explain CDX Tranche Spreads?," NBER Working Papers 22723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Mete Kilic & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Risk, Unemployment, and the Stock Market: A Rare-Event-Based Explanation of Labor Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 21575, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Sönksen, Jantje & Grammig, Joachim, 2021. "Empirical asset pricing with multi-period disaster risk: A simulation-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 805-832.
    20. João F. Gomes & Lukas Schmid, 2021. "Equilibrium Asset Pricing with Leverage and Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 977-1018, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default; Credit spread; Search and matching; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:142:y:2021:i:1:p:127-145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.