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OPEC, unconventional oil and climate change - On the importance of the order of extraction

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  • Benchekroun, Hassan
  • van der Meijden, Gerard
  • Withagen, Cees
Abstract
We show that OPEC's market power contributes to climate change by enabling producers of relatively expensive and dirty oil to start producing before OPEC reserves are depleted. We examine the importance of this extraction sequence effect by calibrating and simulating a cartel-fringe model of the global oil market. While welfare net of climate damage under the cartel-fringe equilibrium can be significantly lower than under a first-best outcome, almost the entire welfare loss is due to the sequence effect of OPEC's market power. In our benchmark calibration, the cost of the sequence effect amounts to 15 trillion US$, which corresponds to 97 percent of the welfare loss. Moreover, we find that an increase in non-OPEC oil reserves decreases global welfare. In a counterfactual world without non-OPEC oil, global welfare would be 13 trillion US$ higher, 10 trillion US$ of which is due to lower climate damages.

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  • Benchekroun, Hassan & van der Meijden, Gerard & Withagen, Cees, 2020. "OPEC, unconventional oil and climate change - On the importance of the order of extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:104:y:2020:i:c:s0095069620301078
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102384
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    Cited by:

    1. Renaud Coulomb & Fanny Henriet & Léo Reitzmann, 2021. "'Bad' Oil, 'Worse' Oil and Carbon Misallocation," Working Papers halshs-03244647, HAL.
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    3. Hart, Rob & Gars, Johan, 2022. "The black paradox," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cartel-fringe; Climate policy; Non-renewable resource; Herfindahl rule;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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