Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v213y2023icp215-232.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Meta-models of the Phillips curve and income distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Ferri, Piero
  • Cristini, Annalisa
  • Tramontana, Fabio
Abstract
This paper reconsiders the flattening of the Phillips curve that has taken place over the last twenty-five years, together with the recent claim that a wage-price spiral could ignite an inflationary process. The two aspects are interrelated. The time-variation nature of the parameters plays a fundamental role in feeding a process of instability that may affect the reappearance of inflationary episodes. This paper first examines the extent of the U.S. Phillips curve flattening and nonlinearity by comparing the results of different econometric specifications and models. Based on these findings, the use of a regime-switching device, particularly studied by Richard Day, is proposed and applied to a Harrod–Minsky macro model. Three results are worth mentioning. The detection of nonlinearities in the U.S. Phillips curve leading to breaks in the curve; the ability of the model to generate robust bounded fluctuations, in which both Phillips curve loops and distributive loops can arise; the presence of both wage-led and profit-led distributive loops in the same model with different combinations of real and monetary parameters that can generate complex dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferri, Piero & Cristini, Annalisa & Tramontana, Fabio, 2023. "Meta-models of the Phillips curve and income distribution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 215-232.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:213:y:2023:i:c:p:215-232
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.07.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268123002536
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.07.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander Doser & Ricardo Nunes & Nikhil Rao & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 453-471, June.
    2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    3. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 337-405.
    4. Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Amir Sufi, 2019. "Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating?," NBER Working Papers 25792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Steven Fazzari & Alejandro Gonzalez, 2023. "How large are hysteresis effects? Estimates from a Keynesian growth model," FMM Working Paper 89-2023, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 126-162, October.
    7. David Kiefer & Codrina Rada, 2015. "Profit maximising goes global: the race to the bottom," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(5), pages 1333-1350.
    8. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2003. "Taylor rules, omitted variables, and interest rate smoothing in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 55-59, October.
    9. Ferri, Piero & Greenberg, Edward & Day, Richard H., 2001. "The Phillips curve, regime switching, and the NAIRU," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 23-37, September.
    10. Galí, Jordi & Gambetti, Luca, 2019. "Has the U.S. Wage Phillips Curve Flattened? A Semi-Structural Exploration," CEPR Discussion Papers 13452, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Tramontana, F. & Gardini, L. & Ferri, P., 2010. "The dynamics of the NAIRU model with two switching regimes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 681-695, April.
    12. Jeremy B. Rudd, 2022. "Why do we think that inflation expectations matter for inflation? (And should we?)," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 25-45, January.
    13. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    14. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    15. Annalisa Cristini & Piero Ferri, 2021. "Nonlinear models of the Phillips curve," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    16. Jose Barrales‐Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Daniele Tavani & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 468-503, April.
    17. Kristin J. Forbes & Joseph E. Gagnon & Christopher G. Collins, 2020. "Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World," Working Paper Series WP20-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    18. Simon Smith & Allan Timmermann & Jonathan H. Wright, 2023. "Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 31153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
    20. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 97-120, Winter.
    21. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    22. Jonathon Hazell & Juan Herreño & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2022. "The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1299-1344.
    23. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2022. "Heterogeneous Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Foundations of a Nonlinear Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 30774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Eric Kemp‐Benedict, 2020. "Convergence of actual, warranted, and natural growth rates in a Kaleckian–Harrodian‐classical model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 851-881, November.
    25. Thomas I. Palley, 2017. "Wage- vs. profit-led growth: the role of the distribution of wages in determining regime character," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 41(1), pages 49-61.
    26. Peter Flaschel & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2006. "Wage Price Phillips Curves and Macroeconomic Stability: Basic Structural Form, Estimation and Analysis," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Quantitative and Empirical Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamic Macromodels, pages 4-48, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    27. Víctor M. Montuenga‐Gómez & José M. Ramos‐Parreño, 2005. "Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 735-765, December.
    28. Ichiro Takahashi & Isamu Okada, 2020. "An artificial Wicksell–Keynes economy integrating short-run business cycle and long-term cumulative trend," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(4), pages 953-998, October.
    29. Mr. Jorge A Alvarez & Mr. John C Bluedorn & Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Youyou Huang & Evgenia Pugacheva & Alexandre Sollaci, 2022. "Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence?," IMF Working Papers 2022/221, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Carvalho, Carlos & Nechio, Fernanda & Tristão, Tiago, 2021. "Taylor rule estimation by OLS," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 140-154.
    31. Steven M Fazzari & Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2020. "Demand-led growth and accommodating supply," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(3), pages 583-605.
    32. Kristin J. Forbes & Joseph E. Gagnon & Christopher G. Collins, 2022. "Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 45(89), pages 52-72.
    33. Kristin J. Forbes & Joseph E. Gagnon & Christopher G. Collins, 2021. "Low inflation bends the Phillips curve around the world: Extended results," Working Paper Series WP21-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    34. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. wage Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 19-43.
    35. Piero Ferri, 2011. "Macroeconomics of Growth Cycles and Financial Instability," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14260.
    36. Hiroshi Nishi & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2020. "Cyclical dynamics in a Kaleckian model with demand and distribution regimes and endogenous natural output," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 256-288, February.
    37. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Estimating a Wage Curve for Britain: 1973-90," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1025-1043, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Annalisa Cristini & Piero Ferri, 2021. "Nonlinear models of the Phillips curve," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    2. Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What's Up with the Phillips Curve?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 301-373.
    3. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Working Papers 22-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    4. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    5. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Harding, Martín & Lindé, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2023. "Understanding post-COVID inflation dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 101-118.
    7. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque, 2023. "Monetary policy and the wage inflation-unemployment tradeoff," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Wellmann, Susanne, 2023. "The Phillips curve in the euro area: New evidence using country-level data," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 156, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    9. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    10. De Palma Francesco & Ligonnière Samuel & Saadaoui Jamel & Thommen Yann, 2022. "The role of wage bargaining institutions in the Phillips curve flattening;," Working Papers of BETA 2022-21, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    11. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," NIPE Working Papers 04/2019, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr & Xiong, Lin, 2022. "Female small business owners in China: Discouraged, not discriminated," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Faryna, Oleksandr & Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy, 2020. "Wage Setting and Unemployment: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 503, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    15. U. Devrim Demirel & Matthew Wilson, 2023. "Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inflation: Implications of Supply Disruptions and Economic Slack: Working Paper 2023-05," Working Papers 59056, Congressional Budget Office.
    16. Alexander Doser & Ricardo Nunes & Nikhil Rao & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 453-471, June.
    17. Faryna, Oleksandr & Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy, 2022. "Wage and unemployment: Evidence from online job vacancy data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 52-70.
    18. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," CEF.UP Working Papers 1902, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    19. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue & Yiru Wang, 2024. "Has the Phillips curve flattened?," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 22, Stata Users Group.
    20. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 199-255.
    21. de Groot, Oliver & Haas, Alexander, 2023. "The signalling channel of negative interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 87-103.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; Threshold models; Time-variation of parameters; Regime switching; Distributive loops; Medium-run growth models; Simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:213:y:2023:i:c:p:215-232. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.