Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jetheo/v198y2021ics0022053121001691.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Robustly optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with housing

Author

Listed:
  • Adam, Klaus
  • Woodford, Michael
Abstract
We analytically characterize optimal monetary policy for an augmented New Keynesian model with a housing sector. With rational private sector expectations about housing prices and inflation, optimal monetary policy can be characterized by a standard ‘target criterion’ that refers to inflation and the output gap, without making reference to housing prices. When the policymaker is concerned with potential departures of private sector expectations from rational ones and seeks a policy that is robust against such possible departures, then the optimal target criterion must also depend on housing prices. For empirically realistic cases, the central bank should then ‘lean against’ housing prices, i.e., following unexpected housing price increases (decreases), policy should adopt a stance that is projected to undershoot (overshoot) its normal targets for inflation and the output gap. Robustly optimal policy does not require that the central bank distinguishes between ‘fundamental’ and ‘non-fundamental’ movements in housing prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam, Klaus & Woodford, Michael, 2021. "Robustly optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with housing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:198:y:2021:i:c:s0022053121001691
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2021.105352
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022053121001691
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105352?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Inflation Stabilization And Welfare: The Case Of A Distorted Steady State," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1185-1236, December.
    2. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2012. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 77-122.
    3. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2023. "Doubts about the model and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    4. Jordi Gal?, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 721-752, March.
    5. Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2006. "Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1447-1498, November.
    6. Acemoglu, Daron & Woodford, Michael (ed.), 2012. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226002149, July.
    7. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Three Types of Ambiguity," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 11, pages 379-430, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    9. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2016. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 33-82, February.
    10. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy with Near-Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 274-303, March.
    11. Adam, Klaus & Woodford, Michael, 2012. "Robustly optimal monetary policy in a microfounded New Keynesian model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 468-487.
    12. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-740, August.
    13. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Johannes Beutel, 2017. "Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2352-2408, August.
    14. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2014. "Ambiguous Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2368-2399, August.
    15. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
    16. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "Robust estimation and control under commitment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 258-301, October.
    17. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Doubts or Variability?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 7, pages 217-256, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    19. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 923-936, November.
    20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Cosmin Ilut & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock market booms," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 85-145.
    21. Giannoni, Marc P. & Woodford, Michael, 2017. "Optimal target criteria for stabilization policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 55-106.
    22. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Paciello, Luigi, 2014. "Monetary policy, doubts and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 85-98.
    23. , G., 2013. "Managing pessimistic expectations and fiscal policy," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), January.
    24. Feng Dong & Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 68-98, August.
    25. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
    26. Kwon, Hyosung & Miao, Jianjun, 2017. "Three types of robust Ramsey problems in a linear-quadratic framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 211-231.
    27. Caines, Colin & Winkler, Fabian, 2021. "Asset price beliefs and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 53-67.
    28. Minxian Yang, 2008. "Normal log-normal mixture, leptokurtosis and skewness," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 737-742.
    29. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2023. "Doubts about the model and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    2. Jørgensen, Peter Lihn, 2023. "The global savings glut and the housing boom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Thore Kockerols & Erling Motzfeldt Kravik & Yasin Mimir, 2021. "Leaning against persistent financial cycles with occasional crises," Working Paper 2021/11, Norges Bank.
    4. Charles Ka Yui LEUNG, 2022. "Housing and Macroeconomics," ISER Discussion Paper 1197, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    5. Buch, Claudia M. & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2022. "Banking deregulation, macroeconomic dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Klaus Adam & Oliver Pfäuti & Timo Reinelt, 2020. "Falling Natural Rates, Rising Housing Volatility and the Optimal Inflation Target," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_235, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    7. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.
    8. Yasutaka Ogawa & Jiro Yoshida, 2024. "Aging, Housing, and Macroeconomic Inefficiency," IMES Discussion Paper Series 24-E-04, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam, Klaus & Woodford, Michael, 2018. "Leaning against housing prices as robustly optimal monetary policy," CFS Working Paper Series 601, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2023. "Doubts about the model and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    3. Caines, Colin & Winkler, Fabian, 2021. "Asset price beliefs and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 53-67.
    4. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Paciello, Luigi, 2014. "Monetary policy, doubts and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 85-98.
    5. Colin C. Caines & Fabian Winkler, 2018. "Asset Price Learning and Optimal Monetary Policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1236, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Klaus Adam & Oliver Pfäuti & Timo Reinelt, 2020. "Falling Natural Rates, Rising Housing Volatility and the Optimal Inflation Target," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_235, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    7. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. repec:fip:a00001:89442 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Adam, Klaus & Woodford, Michael, 2012. "Robustly optimal monetary policy in a microfounded New Keynesian model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 468-487.
    10. Bennett, Federico & Montamat, Giselle & Roch, Francisco, 2023. "Robust optimal macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    11. Kwon, Hyosung & Miao, Jianjun, 2017. "Three types of robust Ramsey problems in a linear-quadratic framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 211-231.
    12. Boehl, Gregor, 2022. "Monetary policy and speculative asset markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    13. Frank Hespeler & Marco M. Sorge, 2013. "Does Near-Rationality Matter in First-Order Approximate Solutions? A Perturbation Approach," CSEF Working Papers 339, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    14. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2013. "House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 219-276, June.
    15. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Furlanetto & Francesca Loria, 2023. "Has the Fed Responded to House and Stock Prices? A Time-Varying Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1314-1324, September.
    16. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2019. "Generalized entropy and model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 312-343.
    17. Jianjun Miao & Alejandro Rivera, 2016. "Robust Contracts in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1405-1440, July.
    18. Axelle Ferriere & Anastasios G. Karantounias, 2019. "Fiscal Austerity in Ambiguous Times," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 89-131, January.
    19. Eusepi, Stefano & Giannoni, Marc P. & Preston, Bruce, 2018. "Some implications of learning for price stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-20.
    20. Peter von zur Muehlen, 2022. "Prices and Taxes in a Ramsey Climate Policy Model under Heterogeneous Beliefs and Ambiguity," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-56, October.
    21. Winkler, Fabian, 2020. "The role of learning for asset prices and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 42-58.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Robustly optimal policy; Belief distortions; New Keynesian model; Housing prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:198:y:2021:i:c:s0022053121001691. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622869 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.