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Equilibrium credit: The reference point for macroprudential supervisors

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  • Buncic, Daniel
  • Melecky, Martin
Abstract
Equilibrium credit is an important concept because it helps to identify excessive credit provision in an economy. This paper proposes a structural approach to determine equilibrium credit which is based on the long-run through-the-cycle transaction demand for credit. Using a panel data set consisting of 49 high and middle-income countries from 1980 to 2010, we show that there exists considerable variation in the cross-country estimates of the income and price elasticities of credit and that the unit elasticity restriction implicitly imposed by the credit-to-GDP ratio is strongly rejected by the data. This suggests that the credit-to-GDP ratio is not appropriate to measure equilibrium credit. We show further that the cross-sectional variation in the income and price elasticities of credit can be related to a set of relevant economic, financial and institutional development indicators of a country. The main determinants that explain the cross-sectional variation in the income and price elasticities are financial depth, access to financial services, use of capital markets, efficiency and funding of domestic banks, central bank independence, the degree of supervisory integration, and the experience of a financial crisis. As an empirical illustration, we compute equilibrium credit and credit gaps for eleven new EU member states using our structural framework and compare it to credit gaps based on the Basel III approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2014. "Equilibrium credit: The reference point for macroprudential supervisors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 135-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:135-154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.01.005
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    9. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing credit gaps in CESEE based on levels justified by fundamentals – a comparison across different estimation approaches," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 74, Bank of Lithuania.
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    11. Tihana Skrinjaric & Maja Bukovsak, 2022. "Improving The Calibration Of Countercyclical Capital Buffer: New Indicators Of Credit Gap In Croatia," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 31(2), pages 541-568, december.
    12. Arseneau, David & Brang, Grace & Darst, Matt & Faber, Jacob & Rappoport, David & Vardoulakis, Alexandros, 2023. "A Macroprudential Perspective on the Regulatory Boundaries of US Financial Assets," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, July.
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    14. Ponomarenko, Alexey & Tatarintsev, Stas, 2023. "Incorporating financial development indicators into early warning systems," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
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    17. Buncic, Daniel & Moretto, Carlo, 2015. "Forecasting copper prices with dynamic averaging and selection models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-38.
    18. Lang, Jan Hannes & Welz, Peter, 2018. "Semi-structural credit gap estimation," Working Paper Series 2194, European Central Bank.
    19. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    20. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    21. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    22. Magnus Saß, 2024. "Detecting excessive credit growth: An approach based on structural counterfactuals," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0046, Berlin School of Economics.
    23. Hosszú, Zsuzsanna & Körmendi, Gyöngyi & Mérő, Bence, 2016. "Egy- és többváltozós szűrők a hitelrés alakulásának meghatározására [Filters with single or multiple variables in measuring the size of the credit gap]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 233-259.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium credit; Macroprudential supervision; Demand for credit; Time-series panel data; High- and middle income countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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