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Pooling risk among countries

Author

Listed:
  • Callen, Michael
  • Imbs, Jean
  • Mauro, Paolo
Abstract
Suppose that international sharing risk—worldwide or with large numbers of countries—were costly. How much risk-sharing could be gained in small sets (or “pools”) of countries? To answer this question, we compute the means and variances of poolwide gross domestic product growth, for all possible pools of any size drawn from a sample of 74 countries, and compare them with the means and variances of consumption growth in each country individually. From the difference, we infer potential diversification and welfare gains. As much as two-thirds of the first best, full worldwide welfare gains can be obtained in groupings of as few as seven countries. The largest potential gains arise from pools consisting of countries in different regions and including countries with weak institutions. We argue that international risk-sharing fails to emerge because the largest potential gains are among countries that do not trust each other's willingness and ability to abide by international contractual obligations.

Suggested Citation

  • Callen, Michael & Imbs, Jean & Mauro, Paolo, 2015. "Pooling risk among countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 88-99.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:96:y:2015:i:1:p:88-99
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.01.006
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    Cited by:

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    7. Inga Heiland, 2017. "Five Essays on International Trade, Factor Flows and the Gains from Globalization," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 74.
    8. Suman Basu & Ran Bi & Prakash Kannan, 2010. "Regional reserve pooling arrangements," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct.
    9. Callen, Michael & Imbs, Jean & Mauro, Paolo, 2015. "Pooling risk among countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 88-99.
    10. Heiland, Inga, 2016. "Global Risk Sharing Through Trade in Goods and Assets: Theory and Evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145821, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does financial globalization promote risk sharing?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 258-270, July.
    12. Edith Liu & Karen Lewis, 2012. "International Consumption Risk Is Shared After All: An Asset Return View," 2012 Meeting Papers 643, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. J.-S. Pentecôte & J.-C. Poutineau & F. Rondeau, 2015. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: The Negative Effect of New Trade Flows," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 61-79, February.
    14. Alcidi, Cinzia & D’Imperio, Paolo & Thirion, Gilles, 2023. "Risk-sharing and consumption-smoothing patterns in the US and the Euro Area: A comprehensive comparison," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 58-69.
    15. Laurissa Mühlich & Barbara Fritz, 2018. "Safety for Whom? The Scattered Global Financial Safety Net and the Role of Regional Financial Arrangements," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 981-1001, November.
    16. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Terrones, Marco E., 2007. "How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels," IZA Discussion Papers 2903, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Barbara Fritz & Laurissa Mühlich, 2019. "Regional Financial Arrangements in the Global Financial Safety Net: The Arab Monetary Fund and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 96-121, January.
    18. Sebastian Dullien & Barbara Fritz & Laurissa Mühlich, 2013. "Regional Monetary Cooperation: Lessons from the Euro Crisis for Developing Areas?," World Economic Review, World Economics Association, vol. 2013(2), pages 1-1, February.
    19. Yu, Changhua, 2015. "Evaluating international financial integration in a center-periphery economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 129-144.
    20. William R. Cline, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and the Crisis of 2007-09," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 499, January.
    21. Olivier J. Blanchard & Paolo Mauro & Julien Acalin, 2016. "The Case for Growth-Indexed Bonds in Advanced Economies Today," Policy Briefs PB16-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk sharing; Diversification; Growth-indexation; GDP-indexed instruments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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