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On the interplay between speculative bubbles and productive investment

Author

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  • Raurich, Xavier
  • Seegmuller, Thomas
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to study the interplay between long term productive investments and more short term and liquid speculative ones. A three-period lived overlapping generations model allows us to make this distinction. Agents have a portfolio decision. When young, they can invest in human capital that is a productive long term investment that provides a return during the following two periods. When young or in the middle age, they can invest in a bubble. Young individuals can also borrow on a credit market to finance the productive investment. However, the amount borrowed is limited by a credit constraint. We show that the existence of a stationary bubble raises productive investment and production when the bubleless economy is credit constrained and dynamically efficient. Indeed, young agents sell short the bubble to increase productive investments, whereas traders at middle age transfer wealth to old age. The bubble allows to relax the credit constraint. We outline that a permanent technological shock inducing either a larger return of capital in the short term or a similar increase in the return of capital in both periods raises productive capital, production and the bubble size. We use our framework to discuss the effect on the occurrence of bubbles of financial regulation and fiscal policy.

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  • Raurich, Xavier & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2019. "On the interplay between speculative bubbles and productive investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 400-420.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:111:y:2019:i:c:p:400-420
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.11.002
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Xavier Raurich & Thomas Seegmuller, 2017. "Growth and Bubbles: The Interplay between Productive Investment and the Cost of Rearing Children," Working Papers halshs-01563555, HAL.
    2. Raurich, Xavier & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2022. "Income Distribution By Age Group And Productive Bubbles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 769-799, April.
    3. Lise Clain‐Chamosset‐Yvrard & Xavier Raurich & Thomas Seegmuller, 2023. "Are the Liquidity and Collateral Roles of Asset Bubbles Different?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1443-1473, September.
    4. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Thomas Seegmuller, 2018. "Bubble on real estate: The role of altruism and fiscal policy," Working Papers halshs-01885932, HAL.
    5. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Xavier Raurich & Thomas Seegmuller, 2024. "Entrepreneurship, growth and productivity with bubbles," Post-Print hal-04718292, HAL.
    6. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Thomas Seegmuller, 2018. "Bubble on Real Estate: The Role of Altruism and Fiscal Policy," Working Papers halshs-01880937, HAL.
    7. Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard, Lise & Raurich, Xavier & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2024. "Entrepreneurship, growth and productivity with bubbles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Bahloul Zekkari, Kathia & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2020. "Asset bubble and endogenous labor supply: A clarification," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubble; Efficiency; Vintage capital; Credit; Short sellers; Overlapping generations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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