Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/econom/v223y2021i1p1-27.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Indirect inference for locally stationary models

Author

Listed:
  • Frazier, David T.
  • Koo, Bonsoo
Abstract
We propose the use of indirect inference estimation to conduct inference in complex locally stationary models. We develop a local indirect inference algorithm and establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator. Due to the nonparametric nature of locally stationary models, the resulting indirect inference estimator exhibits nonparametric rates of convergence. We validate our methodology with simulation studies in the confines of a locally stationary moving average model and a new locally stationary multiplicative stochastic volatility model. Using this indirect inference methodology and the new locally stationary volatility model, we obtain evidence of non-linear, time-varying volatility trends for monthly returns on several Fama–French portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Frazier, David T. & Koo, Bonsoo, 2021. "Indirect inference for locally stationary models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 1-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:223:y:2021:i:1:p:1-27
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.08.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407620303031
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.08.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koo, Bonsoo & La Vecchia, Davide & Linton, Oliver, 2021. "Estimation of a nonparametric model for bond prices from cross-section and time series information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 562-588.
    2. Robert F. Engle & Jose Gonzalo Rangel, 2008. "The Spline-GARCH Model for Low-Frequency Volatility and Its Global Macroeconomic Causes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1187-1222, May.
    3. Joseph G. Altonji & Anthony A. Smith Jr. & Ivan Vidangos, 2013. "Modeling Earnings Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1395-1454, July.
    4. Xiaohong Chen & Oliver Linton & Ingrid Van Keilegom, 2003. "Estimation of Semiparametric Models when the Criterion Function Is Not Smooth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1591-1608, September.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:2:p:549-573 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. White,Halbert, 1996. "Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521574464, September.
    7. Fryzlewicz, Piotr & Sapatinas, Theofanis & Subba Rao, Suhasini, 2008. "Normalized least-squares estimation in time-varying ARCH models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25187, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Orbe, Susan & Ferreira, Eva & Rodriguez-Poo, Juan, 2005. "Nonparametric estimation of time varying parameters under shape restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 53-77, May.
    9. Dennis Kristensen & Young Jun Lee, 2019. "Local Polynomial Estimation of Time-Varying Parameters in Nonlinear Models," Papers 1904.05209, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    10. Bruins, Marianne & Duffy, James A. & Keane, Michael P. & Smith, Anthony A., 2018. "Generalized indirect inference for discrete choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 177-203.
    11. Horowitz, Joel L. & Lee, Sokbae, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation and inference under shape restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(1), pages 108-126.
    12. Arif Dowla & Efstathios Paparoditis & Dimitris Politis, 2013. "Local block bootstrap inference for trending time series," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 76(6), pages 733-764, August.
    13. Jens-Peter Kreiss & Efstathios Paparoditis, 2015. "Bootstrapping locally stationary processes," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 77(1), pages 267-290, January.
    14. Dridi, Ramdan & Guay, Alain & Renault, Eric, 2007. "Indirect inference and calibration of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 397-430, February.
    15. Robert F. Engle & Eric Ghysels & Bumjean Sohn, 2013. "Stock Market Volatility and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 776-797, July.
    16. Dahlhaus, R., 1996. "On the Kullback-Leibler information divergence of locally stationary processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 139-168, March.
    17. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    18. Michael Vogt, 2012. "Nonparametric regression for locally stationary time series," CeMMAP working papers CWP22/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    19. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 63-84, Suppl. De.
    20. Phillips, Peter C. B., 2001. "Trending time series and macroeconomic activity: Some present and future challenges," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 21-27, January.
    21. Frazier, David T. & Oka, Tatsushi & Zhu, Dan, 2019. "Indirect inference with a non-smooth criterion function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 623-645.
    22. Frazier, David T., 2019. "A Simple Iterative Z-Estimator For Semiparametric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 111-141, February.
    23. Kevin Q. Wang, 2003. "Asset Pricing with Conditioning Information: A New Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 161-196, February.
    24. Koo, Bonsoo & Linton, Oliver, 2012. "Estimation of semiparametric locally stationary diffusion models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 210-233.
    25. Monica Billio & Alain Monfort, 2003. "Kernel-Based Indirect Inference," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 297-326.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Seuk Wai Phoong & Seuk Yen Phoong & Shi Ling Khek, 2022. "Systematic Literature Review With Bibliometric Analysis on Markov Switching Model: Methods and Applications," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David T. Frazier & Bonsoo Koo, 2020. "Indirect Inference for Locally Stationary Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 30/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Frazier, David T. & Oka, Tatsushi & Zhu, Dan, 2019. "Indirect inference with a non-smooth criterion function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 623-645.
    3. Shuowen Chen, 2022. "Indirect Inference for Nonlinear Panel Models with Fixed Effects," Papers 2203.10683, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    4. Chaudhuri, Saraswata & Frazier, David T. & Renault, Eric, 2018. "Indirect Inference with endogenously missing exogenous variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 55-75.
    5. Sadikoglu, Serhan, 2019. "Essays in econometric theory," Other publications TiSEM 99d83644-f9dc-49e3-a4e1-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Ai, Chunrong & Chen, Xiaohong, 2007. "Estimation of possibly misspecified semiparametric conditional moment restriction models with different conditioning variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 5-43, November.
    7. Yousuf, Kashif & Ng, Serena, 2021. "Boosting high dimensional predictive regressions with time varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 60-87.
    8. Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & James M. Nason, 2013. "Bayesian estimation of DSGE models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 21, pages 486-512, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Stefan Birr & Stanislav Volgushev & Tobias Kley & Holger Dette & Marc Hallin, 2017. "Quantile spectral analysis for locally stationary time series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1619-1643, November.
    10. Bonsoo Koo & Oliver Linton, 2013. "Let's get LADE: robust estimation of semiparametric multiplicative volatility models," CeMMAP working papers 11/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    11. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
    12. Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Time-varying model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 974-992.
    13. Cai, Zongwu, 2007. "Trending time-varying coefficient time series models with serially correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 163-188, January.
    14. Matteo Barigozzi & Roxana Halbleib & David Veredas, 2012. "Which model to match?," Working Papers 1229, Banco de España.
    15. Sentana, Enrique & Calzolari, Giorgio & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2008. "Indirect estimation of large conditionally heteroskedastic factor models, with an application to the Dow 30 stocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 10-25, September.
    16. Krampe, J. & Kreiss, J.-P. & Paparoditis, E., 2015. "Hybrid wild bootstrap for nonparametric trend estimation in locally stationary time series," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 54-63.
    17. Enrique Sentana & Giorgio Calzolari & Gabriele Fiorentini, 2004. "Indirect Estimation of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Models," Working Papers wp2004_0409, CEMFI.
    18. Cristina Lopez-Mayan, 2014. "Microeconometric Analysis of Residential Water Demand," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 59(1), pages 137-166, September.
    19. Zhang, Ting, 2015. "Semiparametric model building for regression models with time-varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 189-200.
    20. Blasques, Francisco & Duplinskiy, Artem, 2018. "Penalized indirect inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 34-54.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Semiparametric; Locally stationary; Indirect inference; State–space models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:223:y:2021:i:1:p:1-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.