Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v27y2010i1p125-133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM)

Author

Listed:
  • Cicinelli, Claudio
  • Cossio, Andrea
  • Nucci, Francesco
  • Ricchi, Ottavio
  • Tegami, Cristian
Abstract
In this paper, we provide a description of the Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM). We illustrate its general structure and model properties, especially with regard to the economy's response to changes in policy and in other dimensions of the economic environment. One of the key features of the model is the joint representation of the economy on both the demand and the supply sides. Since it is designed for the needs of a Treasury Department, its public finance section is developed in great detail, both on the expenditure and revenue sides. It also features a complete modeling of financial assets and liabilities of each institutional sector. After documenting the model structure and the estimation results, we turn to the outcomes of model simulation and ascertain the model properties. In ITEM the shocks that generate permanent effects on output are associated with: a) variables that affect the tax wedge in the labor market and the user cost of capital; b) labor supply change; and c) variation in the trend component of TFP (technical progress). By contrast, demand shocks have only temporary effects on output.

Suggested Citation

  • Cicinelli, Claudio & Cossio, Andrea & Nucci, Francesco & Ricchi, Ottavio & Tegami, Cristian, 2010. "The Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 125-133, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:1:p:125-133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264-9993(09)00140-0
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "Model Evaluation in Macroeconometrics: from early empirical macroeconomic models to DSGE models," Working Papers 327, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    2. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    3. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S & Parkinson, Martin L, 1991. "Procyclical Labor Productivity and Competing Theories of the Business Cycle: Some Evidence from Interwar U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 439-459, June.
    5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    6. Sbordone, Argia M., 1996. "Cyclical productivity in a model of labor hoarding," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 331-361, October.
    7. Cicinelli, Claudio & Cossio, Andrea & Nucci, Francesco & Ricchi, Ottavio & Tegami, Cristian, 2010. "The Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 125-133, January.
    8. Susanto Basu, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 719-751.
    9. Fiorito, Riccardo, 2003. "Inventory changes and the closing of macroeconometric models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 75-84, January.
    10. Angeloni,Ignazio & Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642, October.
    11. Mojon, Benoît & Agresti, Anna Maria, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 95, European Central Bank.
    12. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    13. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    14. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850.
    15. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    16. Spanos, Aris, 1990. "The simultaneous-equations model revisited : Statistical adequacy and identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 87-105.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cicinelli, Claudio & Cossio, Andrea & Nucci, Francesco & Ricchi, Ottavio & Tegami, Cristian, 2010. "The Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 125-133, January.
    2. Claudio Socci & Francesco Felici & Rosita Pretaroli & Francesca Severini & Renato Loiero, 2021. "The Multisector Applied Computable General Equilibrium Model for Italian Economy (MACGEM-IT)," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(1), pages 109-127, March.
    3. Giuseppe Bianchi & Tatiana Cesaroni & Ottavio Ricchi, 2015. "ISBEM: An econometric model for the Italian State Budget Expenditures," Working Papers LuissLab 15120, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    4. Francesco Zezza & Gennaro Zezza, 2020. "A Stock-Flow Consistent Quarterly Model of the Italian Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_958, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Francesco Nucci, 2014. "Assessing Policy Reforms for Italy Using ITEM and QUEST III," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 3, pages 211-244, July-Sept.
    6. Fabio DI DIO & Barbara ANNICCHIARICO & Francesco FELICI & Francesco NUCCI, 2010. "Macroeconomic Modelling and Policy Implications: an Assessment for Italy using ITEM and QUEST," EcoMod2010 259600045, EcoMod.
    7. Ottavio Ricchi, 2013. "Analyzing MeMo-It supply side properties," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 57-64.
    8. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Francesco Nucci, "undated". "Macroeconomic Modelling and the Effects of Policy Reforms: an Assessment for Italy using ITEM and," Working Papers 1, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    9. Stefania P. S. Rossi & Guido Pellegrini & Ornella Tarola, 2006. "Macroeconometric modelling for evaluationg the policy impact on growth in dualistic countries: the case of Southern Italian Regions," Vienna Economics Papers 0607, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
    2. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Francesco Nucci, "undated". "Macroeconomic Modelling and the Effects of Policy Reforms: an Assessment for Italy using ITEM and," Working Papers 1, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    3. Fabio DI DIO & Barbara ANNICCHIARICO & Francesco FELICI & Francesco NUCCI, 2010. "Macroeconomic Modelling and Policy Implications: an Assessment for Italy using ITEM and QUEST," EcoMod2010 259600045, EcoMod.
    4. ALISTAIR DIEPPE & KEITH KÜSTER & PETER McADAM, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: An Analysis Using the Area Wide Model," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 507-537, September.
    5. Karamé, Frédéric & Patureau, Lise & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2008. "Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics: Does theory meet the data?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1041-1087, April.
    6. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2009. "Is forward-looking inflation targeting destabilizing? The role of policy's response to current output under endogenous investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 409-430, February.
    7. José Brandão de Brito, 2005. "SEAM: A Small-Scale Euro Area Model With Forward-Looking Elements," Working Papers w200501, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Miguel Casares, 2007. "Monetary Policy Rules in a New Keynesian Euro Area Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 875-900, June.
    9. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    10. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti & Matteo Luciani, 2014. "Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 693-714, October.
    11. Christoffel, Kai & Kuester, Keith & Linzert, Tobias, 2006. "Identifying the role of labor markets for monetary policy in an estimated DSGE model," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/07, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    12. Galeotti, Marzio & Maccini, Louis J. & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2005. "Inventories, employment and hours," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 575-600, April.
    13. Duncan, Alfred J. M. & Nolan, Charles, 2019. "Disputes, debt and equity," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(3), July.
    14. Maarten Dossche & Andrea Gavazzi & Vivien Lewis, 2023. "Labor Adjustment and Productivity in the OECD," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 111-130, January.
    15. Christina Christou & Ruthira Naraidoo & Rangan Gupta & Won Joong Kim, 2018. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the TICKs: A Quantile Regression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(15), pages 3552-3565, December.
    16. Henzel, Steffen & Hülsewig, Oliver & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2009. "The price puzzle revisited: Can the cost channel explain a rise in inflation after a monetary policy shock?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 268-289, June.
    17. Giorgio Motta & Patrizio Tirelli, 2012. "Optimal Simple Monetary and Fiscal Rules under Limited Asset Market Participation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1374, October.
    18. Alessandro Piergallini, 2005. "Equilibrium Determinacy under Monetary and Fiscal Policies in an Overlapping Generations Model," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 34(3), pages 313-330, November.
    19. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    20. Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2017. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2409-2454, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconometric models Economic policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:1:p:125-133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.