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Impact of Oil Factor on Consumer Market: The Case of Azerbaijan

Author

Listed:
  • Sugra Humbatova

    (Department of Economics, UNEC/Azerbaijan State University of Economics, Azerbaijan,)

  • Ibrahim Guliyev Gadim

    (Department of Public Administration and Social Innovations, UNEC/Azerbaijan State University of Economics, Azerbaijan,)

  • Sabuhi Tanriverdiyev Mileddin

    (Department of Economics, UNEC/Azerbaijan State University of Economics, Azerbaijan,)

  • Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiyev

    (Department of Economics, UNEC/ Azerbaijan State University of Economics; Azerbaijan Center For Agricultural Research, Ministry of Agriculture, Baku, Azerbaijan.)

Abstract
This article investigates the long -term and short -term interactions between crude oil and oil products export, and consumer market, retail trade, public catering, paid services and retail trade turnover per person of population in Azerbaijan using annual data from 1997 to 2021. In this research, the ARDL model was used to assess co -integration and short -term relationships. In addition, this study used the FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR co -integration equations to explore long -term coefficients between variables. Granger causation tests were performed, Granger causation analysis was assessed using the Wald test (short -term or weak causation, long -term causation, and both short -term and long -term causation or strong causal relationship). The study proposed 5 hypotheses regarding the impact of oil and oil products export, and consumer market, retail trade, public catering, paid services and retail trade turnover per person of population. Some of the hypotheses were generally, if not completely, justified. Based on the established models and tests carried out, there are co -integrating relationships between the variables. Model coefficients are selected according to their economic and statistical significance.

Suggested Citation

  • Sugra Humbatova & Ibrahim Guliyev Gadim & Sabuhi Tanriverdiyev Mileddin & Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2023. "Impact of Oil Factor on Consumer Market: The Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 202-215, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-04-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil and Oil Products Export; Consumer Market; ARDLBT; DOLS; FMOLS; Granger Causation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q37 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)
    • Q39 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Other

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