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Bauwirtschaft: volle Auftragsbücher und gute Wachstumsaussichten

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Gornig
  • Claus Michelsen
Abstract
The construction volume in Germany is likely to rise significantly in this and next year, albeit not as strongly as in 2016. According to the recent construction volume calculation of DIW Berlin the sum of new construction and refurbishment activities has increased by 2.5 percent in 2016 in real terms. It is expected to rise by additional 1.6 percent in 2017 and again by 2.4 percent in 2018. New construction of residential buildings and public civil engineering are currently the main growth drivers. But refurbishment and renovation, which are currently relatively weak, are likely to gain momentum over the next two years. However it is currently also apparent that the construction industry comes to the limits of its production capacities: the levels of capacity utilization are high. Further fiscal policy measures to incentify additional short run investments in both, new housing and infrastructure, are out of place. Against the background of the high capacity utilization, the likely outcome of additional subsidization would be an increase of prices in the construction industry. Rather, approaches are needed that make investment - particularly in public infrastructure - more sustainable. These include instruments for urban redevelopment areas or an investment reserve fund for infrastructure in public budgets. Das Bauvolumen in Deutschland dürfte auch in diesem und im kommenden Jahr deutlich steigen, wenn auch nicht ganz so stark wie im vergangenen Jahr. Der neuesten Bauvolumenrechnung des DIW Berlin zufolge wird die Summe der Neubauleistungen und Maßnahmen an bestehenden Gebäuden nach 2,5 Prozent im Jahr 2016 in den Jahren 2017 und 2018 real um 1,6 beziehungsweise 2,4 Prozent zunehmen. Der Wohnungsneubau und der öffentliche Tiefbau sind gegenwärtig noch die wesentlichen Wachstumsträger. Maßnahmen im Gebäudebestand dürften aber zunehmend an Bedeutung gewinnen. Allerdings zeichnet sich derzeit auch ab, dass die Bauwirtschaft an die Grenzen ihrer Produktionskapazitäten stößt, die Auslastungsgrade sind vielerorts hoch. Aktionismus bei der staatlichen Förderung von Bauinvestitionen ist daher fehl am Platze. Vor dem Hintergrund ausgelasteter Baukapazitäten dürften Maßnahmen, die den Neubau fördern sollen, derzeit wohl in erster Linie den Preisauftrieb beschleunigen. Gefragt wären vielmehr Ansätze, die Investitionen verstetigen. Dazu zählen Instrumente für städtische Sanierungsgebiete oder eine Investitionsrücklage für Infrastrukturinvestitionen in den öffentlichen Haushalten.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Gornig & Claus Michelsen, 2017. "Bauwirtschaft: volle Auftragsbücher und gute Wachstumsaussichten," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 84(1/2), pages 32-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:84-1-4
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    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.550249.de/17-1-4.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dienes, Christian & Pahnke, André & Wolter, Hans-Jürgen, 2018. "Investitionsverhalten von kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen," IfM-Materialien 268, Institut für Mittelstandsforschung (IfM) Bonn.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Construction industry; residential construction; public infrastructure; economic outlook;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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