Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cii/cepiei/2007-2td.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

L'impact des chocs externes dans les economies du Mercosur : un modele var structurel

Author

Listed:
  • Celine Gimet
Abstract
Cette etude vise a determiner les causes de la destabilisation des pays du Mercosur ces dernieres annees, a l’origine du flottement des monnaies. A l’aide d’un VAR structurel, nous analysons l’impact d’une politique monetaire restrictive des Etats-Unis, d’une baisse de la confiance des marches financiers, et d’une hausse des prix mondiaux des produits agricoles sur les secteurs reel, financier et monetaire de ces pays. La vulnerabilite des economies a ces chocs revele le defaut de soutenabilite des regimes de change en place durant cette periode. En outre, bien que les reactions des pays a chaque type de choc soient proches, des divergences subsistent du fait de l’heterogeneite des structures macroeconomiques et financieres des pays.

Suggested Citation

  • Celine Gimet, 2007. "L'impact des chocs externes dans les economies du Mercosur : un modele var structurel," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 110, pages 107-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2007-2td
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economieinternationale.fr/francgraph/publications/ecointern/rev110/rev110d.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-442, October.
    2. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, July.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, July.
    5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominal shocks?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-56, December.
    6. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    7. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
    9. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 51-74, Fall.
    10. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    11. Bordo, Michael D. & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2006. "Globalization and changing patterns in the international transmission of shocks in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 655-674, June.
    12. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-1357, September.
    13. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Banks, debt maturity and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 169-194, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Milena Lipovina-Božoviæ & Maja Ivanoviæ, 2018. "Capital flows in Montenegro: SVAR model," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(2), pages 647-675.
    2. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2010. "L'impact des chocs externes sur et dans la zone euro : un modèle VAR structurel," CEPN Working Papers hal-00493384, HAL.
    3. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "The viability of an economic and monetary union in Africa with a unified currency: evidence from the African economies' reactions to the international income, price and monetary shocks," Working Papers hal-00851594, HAL.
    4. ASIANI, Freddy, 2020. "La sensibilité de l'économie congolaise face aux chocs monétaire et budgétaire : une approche en modèle var standard [The sensitivity of the congolese economy to monetary and budgetary shocks: a st," MPRA Paper 101255, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jonas Kibala Kuma, 2018. "Structural VAR Model : Theory review and practices on software [Le Modèle VAR Structurel : Eléments de théorie et pratiques sur logiciels]," Post-Print cel-01771221, HAL.
    6. Nassirou, Aïchat, 2017. "Chocs macroéconomiques et intégration d’une union économique et monétaire: cas du Nigéria [Macroeconomic shocks and integration of an economic and monetary union: case of Nigeria]," MPRA Paper 79167, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mohamed BELHEDI & Ines SLAMA & Amine LAHIANI, 2015. "Tranmission Of International Shocks To An Emerging Small Open-Economy: Evidence From Tunisia," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 42, pages 231-258.
    8. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "Impact of international income, prices and monetary shocks on real exchange rate in eight African economies: An empirical study," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(3), pages 41-54, September.
    9. Marine COUPAUD, 2014. "Contagion Des Crises De 1997 Et 2008 En Asean+3 : Un Modèle Var Structurel," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 40, pages 113-138.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cécile Couharde & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2011. "Chocs externes et perspective d'union monétaire en Asie de l'Est : les enseignements d'un modèle VAR structurel," Post-Print halshs-00632373, HAL.
    2. Céline Gimet, 2009. "The spread of international financial shocks to Asean countries," Post-Print halshs-00464216, HAL.
    3. Céline Gimet, 2009. "The spread of international financial schocks on East Asian Countries," Post-Print halshs-00450825, HAL.
    4. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2012. "The Impact of External Shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 35-89.
    5. Leu, Shawn, 2004. "A New Keynesian Perspective of Monetary Policy Implementation in Austr alia," Working Papers 1, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    6. Tomoya Suzuki, 2004. "Is the Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Dominant in Australia?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(249), pages 145-156, June.
    7. Shawn Chen-Yu Leu, 2006. "A New Keynesian Perspective of Monetary Policy in Australia," Working Papers 2006.01, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    8. Marine Coupaud, 2013. "Contagion Des Crises De 1997 Et 2008 En Asean+3: Un Modele Var Structurel," Working Papers hal-00913175, HAL.
    9. Marine COUPAUD, 2014. "Contagion Des Crises De 1997 Et 2008 En Asean+3 : Un Modèle Var Structurel," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 40, pages 113-138.
    10. Marien Coupaud, 2013. "Contagion des crises de 1997 et 2008 en ASEAN+3 : un modèle VAR structurel," Larefi Working Papers 1306, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    11. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2016. "Inference in VARs with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 69-85.
    12. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
    13. Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 253-270, September.
    14. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Eric Swanson & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1031-1057, September.
    15. Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Yi Xue, 2020. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 2020/035, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2009. "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 64-77, September.
    17. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Jin, Keyu, 2021. "The puzzling change in the international transmission of U.S. macroeconomic policy shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    18. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle," Working Paper 2005/11, Norges Bank.
    19. Jacques Miniane & John H. Rogers, 2007. "Capital Controls and the International Transmission of U.S. Money Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1003-1035, August.
    20. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-059 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2011:i:3:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Deskar-Škrbić, Milan & Kotarac, Karlo & Kunovac, Davor, 2020. "The third round of euro area enlargement: Are the candidates ready?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chocs internationaux; Mercosur; modele VAR structurel; restrictions contemporaines et de long terme; taux de change; regime de change; chocs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2007-2td. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepiifr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.