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Coping With Chile’s External Vulnerability: A Financial Problem

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  • Ricardo Caballero G
Abstract
With traditional domestic imbalances long under control, the Chilean business cycle is driven by external shocks. Most importantly, Chile’s external vulnerability is primarily a financial problem. A decline in the Chilean termsof- trade, for example, is associated to a decline in real GDP that is many times larger than one would predict in the presence of perfect financial markets. The financial nature of this excess-sensitivity has two central dimensions: a sharp contraction in Chile’s access to international financial markets when it needs it the most; and an inefficient reallocation of this scarce access across domestic borrowers during external crises. In this paper I characterize this financial mechanism and argue that Chile’s aggregate volatility can be reduced significantly by fostering the private sector’s development of financial instruments that are contingent on Chile’s main external shocks. As a first step, the Central Bank or IFIs could issue a benchmark instrument contingent on these shocks. I also advocate a countercyclical monetary policy but mainly for incentive —that is, as a substitute for taxes on capital inflows and equivalent measures— rather than for ex-post liquidity purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Caballero G, 2002. "Coping With Chile’s External Vulnerability: A Financial Problem," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(1), pages 11-36, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:5:y:2002:i:1:p:11-36
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-108, March.
    2. Cristián Larroulet Vignau, 2003. "Public policies and national dvelopment," Past Working Papers 30, Universidad del Desarrollo, School of Business and Economics.
    3. Gomez-Gonzalez, Patricia, 2019. "Public debt structure and liquidity provision," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 51-60.
    4. Daniel Esteban Osorio Rodíguez & Mauricio Avella Gómez, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of External Indebtedness: The Case of Foreign and Domestic Banks in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 345, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora, 2009. "Quantitative implications of indexed bonds in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 883-902, April.
    6. Alejandro Micco & Ugo Panizza, 2006. "Bank Concentration and Credit Volatility," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Gerard Caprio Jr & Douglas D Evanoff & George G Kaufman (ed.), Cross-Border Banking Regulatory Challenges, chapter 12, pages 183-197, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Christophe Destais, 2017. "Are State-Contingent Sovereign Bonds the Solution to Avoid Government Debt Crisis?," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-19, CEPII research center.
    8. Calderón, César & Fuentes, J. Rodrigo, 2014. "Have business cycles changed over the last two decades? An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 98-123.
    9. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Francisco Rosende R., 2002. "El Desafío del Crecimiento Económico en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(1), pages 83-88, April.
    11. Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Micco & César Manuel Serra, 2003. "Better the Devil that You Know: Evidence on Entry Costs Faced by Foreign Banks," Research Department Publications 4313, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    12. Cristián Larroulet Vignau, 2003. "Políticas públicas para el desarrollo," Past Working Papers 20, Universidad del Desarrollo, School of Business and Economics.
    13. Alicia García Herrero & Javier Santillán & Sonsoles Gallego & Lucía Cuadro & Carlos Egea, 2002. "Latin American Financial Development in Perspective," Working Papers 0216, Banco de España.
    14. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2016. "Do Good Institutions Promote Countercyclical Macroeconomic Policies?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 650-670, October.
    15. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel., 2010. "Institutions and Cyclical Properties of Macroeconomic Policies in the Global Economy," Documentos de Trabajo 372, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    16. Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, 2003. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency?," IMF Working Papers 2003/177, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Patricia Gómez-González, 2015. "Financial innovation in sovereign borrowing and public provision of liquidity," Working Papers 1511, Banco de España.
    18. Wagner, Rodrigo, 2018. "Can the market value state-owned enterprises without privatizing them? An application to natural resources companies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 282-290.

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