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Évolutions démographiques et marché de l’immobilier neuf

Author

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  • Hippolyte d’Albis
  • Élodie Djemaï
Abstract
Using household survey data from the ?Enquêtes Logement? collected from 1973 to 2013, this article studies the effects of demography on the new-build housing market dynamics in France, as well as in the Paris Region, Provence-Alpes-Côte d?Azur, and in coastal regions and in landlocked regions. After computing how frequently individuals buy a new-build house for their primary residence by age, the effects of behavioral changes and demographic changes (population size and age structure) on the market dynamics are evaluated. The article analyzes the impact of population ageing and provides projections on the needs for home construction by 2060. Results suggest that while the changes in population size are in favor of acquisitions all the period long, the age structure becomes an adverse factor from the beginning of the nineties onwards. The decomposition shows that these effects are region-specific.

Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte d’Albis & Élodie Djemaï, 2018. "Évolutions démographiques et marché de l’immobilier neuf," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, vol. 0(1), pages 129-180.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:rerarc:reru_181_0129
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    2. Luc Arrondel & Frédéric Savignac, 2010. "Housing and Portfolio Choices in France," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754837, HAL.
    3. E. Monnet & C. Wolf, 2016. "Demographic Cycle, Migration and Housing Investment: a Causal Examination," Working papers 591, Banque de France.
    4. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.
    5. Olivier Bandt & Thomas Knetsch & Juan Peñalosa & Francesco Zollino (ed.), 2010. "Housing Markets in Europe," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-15340-2, January.
    6. Hippolyte d'Albis & Ikpidi Badji, 2017. "Les inégalités de niveaux de vie entre les générations en France," Post-Print halshs-01524882, HAL.
    7. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    8. Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," CARF F-Series CARF-F-334, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    9. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.
    10. Saita, Yumi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 2, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. Arnaud Simon & Yasmine Essafi, 2017. "Concurrence générationnelle et prix immobiliers," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, vol. 0(1), pages 109-140.
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    Cited by:

    1. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Badji, Ikpidi & El Mekkaoui, Najat & Navaux, Julien, 2020. "Private asset income in France: Is there a breakdown of intergenerational equity between 1979 and 2011?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    2. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ageing; demographic projections; new-build housing market; primary residence; JEL codes : R21; J11; R10;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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