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On the Assessment of Default Risk in Commercial Mortgage Lending

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  • Kerry D. Vandell
Abstract
This paper takes an initial step toward the development of an empirically‐based model of default risk assessment in the commercial mortgage market. A review of existing empirical studies of residential mortgage and commercial loan default provides evidence for appropriate model specification and estimation. A simple default risk model for commercial mortgages is then developed based upon the generalized default risk models of Jackson and Kaserman [1980] and Vandell [1981]. The model is then examined for its ability to successfully handle a variety of situations and used to test the validity of traditional ratio analysis “rules‐of‐thumb” employed in commercial lending. Ratio tests are found generally to be inconsistent with an objective of constraining default risk below some maximum. Finally, a modified ratio analysis consistent with the model and with a constrained default risk strategy is introduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerry D. Vandell, 1984. "On the Assessment of Default Risk in Commercial Mortgage Lending," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 12(3), pages 270-296, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:12:y:1984:i:3:p:270-296
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00323
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jun Chen & Yongheng Deng, 2013. "Commercial Mortgage Workout Strategy and Conditional Default Probability: Evidence from Special Serviced CMBS Loans," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 609-632, May.
    2. Youngha Cho & Soosung Hwang & Steve Satchell, 2012. "The Optimal Mortgage Loan Portfolio in UK Regional Residential Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 645-677, October.
    3. McCollum, Meagan & Milcheva, Stanimira, 2023. "How ‘bad’ is renter protection for institutional investment in multifamily housing?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    4. Gallurt, Jesus & Pombo, Pablo & Ramirez, Jesus & Molina, Horacio, 2012. "La asimetria de la informacion en la crisis financiera, el racionamiento del credito y la garantia como mecanismo simbiotico del sistema [The information asymmetry in the financial crisis, credit r," MPRA Paper 39773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Yingjin Hila Gan & Christopher Mayer, 2006. "Agency Conflicts, Asset Substitution, and Securitization," NBER Working Papers 12359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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