Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/revinw/v60y2014is2ps398-s422.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is Mining Fuelling Long-Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends Since 1995

Author

Listed:
  • Marcel P. Timmer
  • Ilya B. Voskoboynikov
Abstract
GDP per capita growth rates in Russia have been amongst the highest in the world since the mid-1990s. Previous growth accounting research at the macro-level suggests that this was mainly driven by multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth. In this paper we analyze for the first time the drivers of Russian growth at the level of industries. We derive a proper measure of capital services, instead of using stock measures as in previous research. Using this, we find that aggregate GDP growth is driven as much by capital input as MFP growth. Mining and Retailing industries are growing fast, but have poor MFP performance. In contrast, MFP growth was high in goods-producing industries but their share in GDP declined. MFP growth was highest in those industries that were particularly underdeveloped in the Russian economy in the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel P. Timmer & Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2014. "Is Mining Fuelling Long-Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends Since 1995," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S2), pages 398-422, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:60:y:2014:i:s2:p:s398-s422
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/roiw.12132
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Oulton, 2007. "Ex Post Versus Ex Ante Measures Of The User Cost Of Capital," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 53(2), pages 295-317, June.
    2. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Vu, Khuong M., 2010. "Potential growth of the world economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 615-631, September.
    3. Hulten, Charles R., 1986. "Productivity change, capacity utilization, and the sources of efficiency growth," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 31-50.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "The Great Contractions in Russia, the Baltics and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: A View From the Supply Side," IMF Working Papers 2000/032, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Alexei Izyumov & John Vahaly, 2008. "Old Capital vs. New Investment in Post-Soviet Economies: Conceptual Issues and Estimates," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 79-110, March.
    6. Yuouri Ivanov, 1987. "Possibilities And Problems Of Reconciliation Of The Sna And The Mps," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 33(1), pages 1-18, March.
    7. Youri Ivanov & Boris Rjabushkin & Tatjana Homenko, 1993. "Introduction Of The Sna Into The Official Statistics Of The Commonwealth Of Independent States," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 39(3), pages 279-294, September.
    8. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    9. Youri N. Ivanov, 2009. "Experiences And Problems Of The Cis Countries In Transition From The Mps To The Sna," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(s1), pages 466-484, July.
    10. Peter Havlik & Sebastian Leitner & Robert Stehrer, 2012. "Growth Resurgence, Productivity Catching-up and Labour Demand in Central and Eastern European Countries," Chapters, in: Matilde Mas & Robert Stehrer (ed.), Industrial Productivity in Europe, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Vu, Khuong M., 2011. "The rise of developing Asia and the new economic order," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 698-716, September.
    12. Margaret S. McMillan & Dani Rodrik, 2011. "Globalization, Structural Change and Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 17143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Voskoboynikov, Ilya B., 2012. "New measures of output, labour and capital in industries of the Russian economy," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-123, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    14. Mr. Garbis Iradian, 2007. "Rapid Growth in Transition Economies: Growth-Accounting Approach," IMF Working Papers 2007/164, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Ryszard Rapacki & Mariusz Próchniak, 2009. "Economic Growth Accounting in Twenty-Seven Transition Countries, 1990-2003," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 69-112, March.
    16. Kuboniwa, Masaaki & 久保庭, 眞彰 & クボニワ, マサアキ, 2011. "Russian Growth Path and TFP Changes in Light of the Estimation of Production Function using Quarterly Data," RRC Working Paper Series 30, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    17. Dale W. Jorgenson & Marcel P. Timmer, 2011. "Structural Change in Advanced Nations: A New Set of Stylised Facts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(1), pages 1-29, March.
    18. Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating?," IMF Working Papers 2006/068, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Harberger, Arnold C, 1998. "A Vision of the Growth Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 1-32, March.
    20. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
    21. Ofer, Gur, 1987. "Soviet Economic Growth: 1928-1985," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 1767-1833, December.
    22. repec:bla:revinw:v:39:y:1993:i:3:p:279-94 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Paul Schreyer, 2001. "The OECD Productivity Manual: A Guide to the Measurement of Industry-Level and Aggregate Productivity," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 2, pages 37-51, Spring.
    24. Berndt, Ernst R. & Fuss, Melvyn A., 1986. "Productivity measurement with adjustments for variations in capacity utilization and other forms of temporary equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 7-29.
    25. World Bank, 2005. "Russian Federation : From Transition to Development, A Country Economic Memorandum for the Russian Federation," World Bank Publications - Reports 8628, The World Bank Group.
    26. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-123 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Ana M. Fernandes, 2009. "Structure and performance of the service sector in transition economies1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 17(3), pages 467-501, July.
    28. Bert M. Balk, 2010. "An Assumption‐Free Framework For Measuring Productivity Change," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(s1), pages 224-256, June.
    29. Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2007. "Of Yeast and Mushrooms: Patterns of Industry‐Level Productivity Growth," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(2), pages 174-187, May.
    30. Ms. Irina Dolinskaya & Ms. Irina Tytell, 2001. "Explaining Russia's Output Collapse: Aggregate Sources and Regional Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2001/016, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2001. "Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 225-302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-362, June.
    33. Matilde Mas & Robert Stehrer (ed.), 2012. "Industrial Productivity in Europe," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14369.
    34. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Michael Alexeev & Shlomo Weber, 2013. "Russian economy, the," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    36. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    37. J. Beaulieu & Joe Mattey, 1998. "The Workweek of Capital and Capital Utilization in Manufacturing," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 199-223, October.
    38. Paul Schreyer, 2012. "Output, Outcome, And Quality Adjustment In Measuring Health And Education Services," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 58(2), pages 257-278, June.
    39. Erwin Diewert, 2008. "What Is To Be Done for Better productivity Measurement," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 16, pages 40-52, Spring.
    40. Dale W. Jorgenson & Marcel P. Timmer, "undated". "Structural Change in Advanced Nations," Working Paper 13525, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    41. Бессонов В. А., 2004. "О Динамике Совокупной Факторной Производительности В Российской Переходной Экономике," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 8(4), pages 542-587.
    42. Masaaki Kuboniwa, 2011. "The Russian growth path and TFP changes in light of estimation of the production function using quarterly data," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 311-325.
    43. repec:bla:germec:v:8:y:2007:i::p:174-187 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Peter Havlik & Sebastian Leitner & Robert Stehrer, 2008. "Growth Resurgence, Productivity Catching-up and Labour Demand in CEECs," wiiw Statistical Reports 3, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    45. Alwyn Young, 2003. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1220-1261, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ville Kaitila, 2016. "GDP growth in Russia: different capital stock series and the terms of trade," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 129-145, April.
    2. Binlei Gong & Robin C. Sickles, 2020. "Non-structural and structural models in productivity analysis: study of the British Isles during the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 243-263, April.
    3. Dmitriy Aleksandrovich Izotov, 2018. "Economic Growth and the Trade of Russian Regions," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 4, pages 92-114.
    4. Mironov, Valeriy V. & Petronevich, Anna V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 97-112.
    5. Marshall Reinsdorf & Robert Hill, 2014. "The 32nd IARIW General Conference, Boston, Massachusetts, 2012: Editors’ Introduction," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S2), pages 277-280, November.
    6. Voskoboynikov, Ilya B., 2017. "Sources of long run economic growth in Russia before and after the global financial crisis," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 348-365.
    7. Mironov, V.V. & Petronevich, A.V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    8. repec:zbw:bofitp:2017_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Zaytsev, Alexander, 2015. "Межстрановые Различия В Душевых Ввп И Производительности Труда: Роль Капитала, Уровня Технологий И Природной Ренты [International differences in per capita GDP and labor productivity: role of capit," MPRA Paper 71606, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2016.
    10. Lilas Demmou & Andreas Wörgötter, 2015. "Boosting Productivity in Russia: Skills, Education and Innovation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1189, OECD Publishing.
    11. Bessonova, Evguenia, 2023. "Firms’ efficiency, exits and government procurement contracts," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Peter Howie & Zauresh Atakhanova, 2020. "Heterogeneous labor and structural change in low- and middle-income, resource-dependent countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 297-332, May.
    13. Evguenia Bessonova & Anna Tsvetkova, 2022. "Do Productivity Laggards Ever Catch Up With Leaders?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(S1), pages 71-107, April.
    14. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Tsvetkova, Anna, 2021. "Technical efficiency trends of Russian firms in 2013–2018," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 91-116.
    16. Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2020. "Structural Change, Expanding Informality and Labor Productivity Growth in Russia," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(2), pages 394-417, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-137 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Voskoboynikov, Ilya B., 2012. "New measures of output, labour and capital in industries of the Russian economy," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-123, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    3. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-123 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2021. "Accounting for growth in the USSR and Russia, 1950–2012," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 870-894, July.
    5. Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2023. "Sources of productivity growth in Eastern Europe and Russia before the global financial crisis," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 225-241, June.
    6. Ville Kaitila, 2016. "GDP growth in Russia: different capital stock series and the terms of trade," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 129-145, April.
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Marcel P. Timmer & Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2014. "Is Mining Fuelling Long-Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends Since 1995," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S2), pages 398-422, November.
    9. Charles R. Hulten, 2000. "Total Factor Productivity: A Short Biography," NBER Working Papers 7471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. de Vries, Gaaitzen J. & Erumban, Abdul A. & Timmer, Marcel P. & Voskoboynikov, Ilya & Wu, Harry X., 2012. "Deconstructing the BRICs: Structural transformation and aggregate productivity growth," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 211-227.
    11. E. A. Orlova & D. R. Belousov & D. I. Galimov, 2020. "A Model of Potential GDP and Output Gap for the Russian Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 171-180, March.
    12. John Fernald & Brent Neiman, 2011. "Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 29-74, April.
    13. Andres Kuusk & Karsten Staehr & Uku Varblane, 2017. "Sectoral change and labour productivity growth during boom, bust and recovery in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 21-43, February.
    14. Erumban, Abdul Azeez & Das, Deb Kusum & Aggarwal, Suresh & Das, Pilu Chandra, 2019. "Structural change and economic growth in India," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 186-202.
    15. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-121 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Andres Kuusk & Karsten Staehr & Uku Varblane, 2015. "Sectoral change and labour productivity growth during boom, bust and recovery," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2015-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Dec 2015.
    17. John Fernald & Brent Neiman, 2006. "Measuring the Miracle: Market Imperfections and Asia's Growth Experience," 2006 Meeting Papers 785, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Ho, Mun S. & Samuels, Jon D., 2016. "The impact of information technology on postwar US economic growth," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 398-411.
    19. Voskoboynikov, Ilya & Solanko, Laura, 2014. "When high growth is not enough: Rethinking Russia's pre-crisis economic performance," BOFIT Policy Briefs 6/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    20. Robert Inklaar, 2010. "The Sensitivity Of Capital Services Measurement: Measure All Assets And The Cost Of Capital," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(2), pages 389-412, June.
    21. Voskoboynikov, Ilya B., 2017. "Sources of long run economic growth in Russia before and after the global financial crisis," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 348-365.
    22. John Fernald & Brent Neiman, 2011. "Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 29-74, April.
    23. Mirzobobo Yormirzoev, 2022. "Economic Growth and Productivity Performance in Central Asia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(3), pages 520-539, September.
    24. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P28 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Natural Resources; Environment
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:60:y:2014:i:s2:p:s398-s422. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iariwea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.