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Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches

Author

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  • Carsten Detken
  • Alistair Dieppe
  • Jérôme Henry
  • Frank Smets
  • Carmen Marin
Abstract
On the basis of historical data aggregated over the period 1973 to 2000, we have experimented with four different approaches to estimate the synthetic euro's equilibrium exchange rate. Using a number of competing models with the same data set, variable definitions and sample period offers the possibility to assess the uncertainty surrounding such equilibrium levels, both from an empirical (different estimates) and a theoretical viewpoint (different specifications). In this exercise, the ‘Rest of the World’ is proxied by the US, the UK, Japan and Switzerland, aggregated on the basis of trade weights. We employed reduced form co–integration models, a structural VAR, a NATREX model (estimated in structural form) and the ECB's small–sized euro area wide macro–econometric model. In this order the approaches feature an increasing degree of ‘structure’, in the sense of the constraints based on economic theory embedded in the econometric models that were estimated. The results confirm the high likelihood for the euro having been undervalued in Q4 2000, while stressing the significant empirical and theoretical uncertainty with respect to the equilibrium exchange rate level.

Suggested Citation

  • Carsten Detken & Alistair Dieppe & Jérôme Henry & Frank Smets & Carmen Marin, 2002. "Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 404-436, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:41:y:2002:i:4:p:404-436
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.00173
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    Cited by:

    1. Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jerome, 2004. "The euro area viewed as a single economy: how does it respond to shocks?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 833-875, September.
    2. Belloc, Marianna & Federici, Daniela, 2010. "A two-country NATREX model for the euro/dollar," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 315-335, March.
    3. ALISTAIR DIEPPE & KEITH KÜSTER & PETER McADAM, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: An Analysis Using the Area Wide Model," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 507-537, September.
    4. Didier Borowski & Cecile Couharde, 2003. "The Exchange Rate Macroeconomic Balance Approach: New Methodology and Results for the Euro, the Dollar, the Yen and the Pound Sterling," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 169-190, April.
    5. Reza Siregar, 2011. "The Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Survey of Literature," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp81.
    6. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-05, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    7. Stein L., 2001. "The Equilibrium Value of The Euro/$ US Exchange Rate: An Evaluation of Research," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 73-108, January -.
    8. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2018. "Macro Determinants Of The Real Exchange Rate In A Small Open Small Island Economy:Evidence From Mauritius Via Bma," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(1), pages 57-80, July.
    9. Andrew Crockett & Roger W Ferguson & Otmar Issing & Michael Mussa & Yutaka Yamaguchi, 2003. "Monetary stability, financial stability and the business cycle: five views," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 18.
    10. Hoarau, Jean-François, 2013. "Un modèle NATREX synthétique pour une petite économie « développée » ouverte contrainte sur les marchés internationaux de capitaux," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 259-303, Décembre.
    11. Rey, Serge, 2009. "L’apport du NATREX à la modélisation des taux de change d’équilibre : théorie et application au dollar canadien," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(2), pages 131-181, juin.
    12. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Richter, Christian, 2004. "Estimating an equilibrium exchange rate for the dollar and other key currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1117-1144, December.
    13. Kateřina Šmídková & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2003. "Estimates of fundamental real exchange rates for the five eu pre-accession countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(4), pages 291-315.
    14. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "Macro Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in a Small Open Small Island Economy: Evidence from Mauritius via BMA," MPRA Paper 68968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Dieppe, Alistair & McAdam, Peter, 2006. "Monetary policy under a liquidity trap: Simulation evidence for the euro area," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 338-363, September.
    16. Serge Rey, 2009. "Des insuffisances de la PPA à l’apport du NATREX : une revue critique des théories du taux de change réel d’équilibre," Working Papers hal-01880363, HAL.
    17. Dan Lupu & Mircea Asandului, 2014. "Exchange Rate and Trade: J-curve in European Union," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 3(3), pages 136-145, June.
    18. Carmen Mar? Mart?ez, 2003. "The Structural Approach of a Natrex Model on Equilibrium Exchange Rates," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 588.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    19. repec:idn:journl:v:21:y:2018-12:i:1:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Nautz, Dieter & Offermanns, Christian J., 2006. "Does the Euro follow the German Mark? Evidence from the monetary model of the exchange rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1279-1295, July.
    21. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-05, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    22. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
    23. Serge Rey, 2009. "Des insuffisances de la PPA à l’apport du NATREX : une revue critique des théories du taux de change réel d’équilibre," Working Papers hal-01880363, HAL.
    24. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Measuring the dollar–euro permanent equilibrium exchange rate using the unobserved components model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-35.

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