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Aging, Asset Markets, and Asset Returns: A View From Europe to Asia

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  • Axel BÖRSCH‐SUPAN
  • Alexander LUDWIG
Abstract
The extent of the demographic changes is dramatic especially in some Asian and European countries. This paper investigates the effect of aging on global asset markets and asset returns, focusing on markets for productive capital, and especially on interactions between European and Asian economic development. Aging has complex effects on the markets for real capital. If elderly people save less than younger people, interest rates will increase. At the same time, however, the younger generation becomes smaller, which reduces the demand for new investment. The equilibrium effect is thus uncertain. Our multicountry computational equilibrium model delivers a subtle picture: there will be some decline in the return from productive capital, but it is relatively small. We find noticeable interaction effects between labor market and pension reforms in Europe on the one hand, and the demographic and economic developments in Asia, especially India and China, on the other hand.

Suggested Citation

  • Axel BÖRSCH‐SUPAN & Alexander LUDWIG, 2009. "Aging, Asset Markets, and Asset Returns: A View From Europe to Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 69-92, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:4:y:2009:i:1:p:69-92
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1748-3131.2009.01109.x
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    1. Bloom, David E. & Börsch-Supan, Axel & McGee, Patrick & Seike, Atsushi, 1970. "Population Aging: Facts, Challenges, and Responses," MEA discussion paper series 201224, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Declining fertility and economic well-being: Do education and health ride to the rescue?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 70-79.
    3. Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "When old meets young? Germany's population ageing and the current account," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 315-336.
    4. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Börsch-Supan, A. & Härtl, K. & Leite, D.N., 2016. "Social Security and Public Insurance," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 781-863, Elsevier.
    6. Axel B?rsch-Supan & Klaus H?rtl & Alexander Ludwig, 2014. "Aging in Europe: Reforms, International Diversification, and Behavioral Reactions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 224-229, May.
    7. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "What drives the German current account? Household savings, capital investments and public policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

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