Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ajarec/v64y2020i3p575-604.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic vulnerability and regional implications of a low carbon emissions future

Author

Listed:
  • David A. Fleming‐Muñoz
  • Lavinia Poruschi
  • Thomas Measham
  • Jacqui Meyers
  • Magnus Moglia
Abstract
Climate change, as well as associated mitigation efforts, will substantially disrupt some economies. Seemingly inevitable market and policy changes will push economies to transition away from reliance on industries with higher carbon emissions and bring transient economic impacts, especially in regions that are currently heavily reliant on such industries. This situation is not unusual in a global context. To underpin better‐informed decisions that enable a smoother economic transition to a low‐emissions future, we developed a ‘latent economic vulnerability to emissions reduction’ (LEVER) index, which maps and explores regions that are more likely to be economically impacted from climate change mitigation. Thus, this paper provides an analysis and discussion of the potential regional implications of a future low‐emissions economy, with the analysis contextualised for the state of Queensland, Australia. Given this case study, the economic impacts and future of coal‐fired power stations, coal mining and renewable energy are discussed. The LEVER index weighs the risk of high carbon economic exposure against the variability in carbon economic resilience from employment in low‐emission sectors across local economies. We find that between 3 and 6 per cent of Queensland regions are assessed as having a very high latent economic vulnerability to increased decarbonisation of industrial activities. To promote a smoother transition, these regions will require targeted investments and strategies to enable their transition towards lower carbon‐intensive systems, while maximising economic and social outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Fleming‐Muñoz & Lavinia Poruschi & Thomas Measham & Jacqui Meyers & Magnus Moglia, 2020. "Economic vulnerability and regional implications of a low carbon emissions future," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 575-604, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:64:y:2020:i:3:p:575-604
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8489.12356
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12356
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-8489.12356?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francesco Vona, 2019. "Job losses and political acceptability of climate policies: why the ‘job-killing’ argument is so persistent and how to overturn it," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 524-532, April.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6d7es28iae9pjoil7092hs41h3 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Wolfram Schlenker & Maximilian Auffhammer, 2018. "The cost of a warming climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 557(7706), pages 498-499, May.
    4. Tim Nelson & Fiona Orton & Tony Chappel, 2018. "Decarbonisation and wholesale electricity market design," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(4), pages 654-675, October.
    5. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    6. Paul J. Burke & Rohan Best & Frank Jotzo, 2019. "Closures of coal‐fired power stations in Australia: local unemployment effects," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(1), pages 142-165, January.
    7. Fleming, David A. & Measham, Thomas G., 2015. "Local economic impacts of an unconventional energy boom: the coal seam gas industry in Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(1), January.
    8. Maureen Kilkenny & Mark D. Partridge, 2009. "Export Sectors and Rural Development," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(4), pages 910-929.
    9. Lino Briguglio & Gordon Cordina & Nadia Farrugia & Stephanie Vella, 2009. "Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 229-247.
    10. Fleming, David A. & Measham, Thomas G., 2014. "Local job multipliers of mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 9-15.
    11. Healy, Noel & Barry, John, 2017. "Politicizing energy justice and energy system transitions: Fossil fuel divestment and a “just transition”," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 451-459.
    12. Louie, Edward P. & Pearce, Joshua M., 2016. "Retraining investment for U.S. transition from coal to solar photovoltaic employment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 295-302.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Colvin, R.M. & Przybyszewski, E., 2022. "Local residents' policy preferences in an energy contested region – The Upper Hunter, Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    2. Husaini, Dzul Hadzwan & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2022. "Renewable and non-renewable electricity-growth nexus in Asia: The role of private power plants and oil price threshold effect," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Worden, Sandy & Svobodova, Kamila & Côte, Claire & Bolz, Pascal, 2024. "Regional post-mining land use assessment: An interdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Hendrychová, Markéta & Svobodova, Kamila & Kabrna, Martin, 2020. "Mine reclamation planning and management: Integrating natural habitats into post-mining land use," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Peipei, Wang & Eyvazov, Elchin & Giyasova, Zeynab & Kazimova, Asli, 2023. "The nexus between natural resource rents and financial wealth on economic recovery: Evidence from European Union economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Silva, Jordana Ferreira da & Silva, Fernanda Faria & Leal, Alan Marques Miranda & Oliveira, Héder Carlos de, 2021. "Regional economic resilience and mining in the State of Minas Gerais/Brazil: The barriers of productive specialisation to formal employment and tax management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fleming-Munoz, David A. & Poruschi, Lavinia & Measham, Thomas & Meyers, Jacqui & Moglia, Magnus, 2020. "Economic vulnerability and regional implications of a low carbon emissions future," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), July.
    2. David A. Fleming & Thomas G. Measham & Dusan Paredes, 2015. "Understanding the resource curse (or blessing) across national and regional scales: Theory, empirical challenges and an application," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(4), pages 624-639, October.
    3. Thomas Moritz & Thomas Ejdemo & Patrik Söderholm & Linda Wårell, 2017. "The local employment impacts of mining: an econometric analysis of job multipliers in northern Sweden," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(1), pages 53-65, April.
    4. Watson, Brett & Reimer, Matthew N. & Guettabi, Mouhcine & Haynie, Alan, 2021. "Commercial fisheries & local economies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    5. Zhang, Xiaoli & Cui, Xueqin & Li, Bo & Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Patricia & Kammen, Daniel M & Zou, Ji & Wang, Ke, 2022. "Immediate actions on coal phaseout enable a just low-carbon transition in China’s power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    6. Measham, Thomas & Fleming, David & Schandl, Heinz, 2015. "A Conceptual Model of the Socioeconomic Impacts of Unconventional Fossil Fuel Extraction," MPRA Paper 68523, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Nov 2015.
    7. Nicolas Taconet & Aurélie Méjean & Céline Guivarch, 2020. "Influence of climate change impacts and mitigation costs on inequality between countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 15-34, May.
    8. Omar H. M. N. Bashar, 2015. "The Trickle‐down Effect of the Mining Boom in Australia: Fact or Myth?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(S1), pages 94-108, June.
    9. Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo & Measham, Thomas G. & Fleming-Muñoz, David A., 2019. "Economic impacts of early unconventional gas mining: Lessons from the coal seam gas industry in New South Wales, Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 338-346.
    10. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Loughrey, Jason & O’Donoghue, Cathal & Meredith, David & Murphy, Ger & Shanahan, Ultan & Miller, Corina, 2018. "The Local Impact of Cattle Farming," 166th Seminar, August 30-31, 2018, Galway, West of Ireland 276231, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Kuriyama, Akihisa & Abe, Naoya, 2021. "Decarbonisation of the power sector to engender a ‘Just transition’ in Japan: Quantifying local employment impacts," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    13. Vona, Francesco, 2023. "Managing the distributional effects of climate policies: A narrow path to a just transition," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    14. De Valck, Jeremy & Williams, Galina & Kuik, Swee, 2021. "Does coal mining benefit local communities in the long run? A sustainability perspective on regional Queensland, Australia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Weinstein, Amanda L. & Partridge, Mark D. & Tsvetkova, Alexandra, 2018. "Follow the money: Aggregate, sectoral and spatial effects of an energy boom on local earnings," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 196-209.
    16. Huong Dinh & Ben Freyens & Anne Daly & Yogi Vidyattama, 2017. "Measuring Community Economic Resilience in Australia: Estimates of Recent Levels and Trends," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 1217-1236, July.
    17. Fleming, David & Komarek, Timothy & Partridge, Mark & Measham, Thomas, 2015. "The Booming Socioeconomic Impacts of Shale: A Review of Findings and Methods in the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 68487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Goddard, George & Farrelly, Megan A., 2018. "Just transition management: Balancing just outcomes with just processes in Australian renewable energy transitions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 110-123.
    19. Söderholm, Patrik & Svahn, Nanna, 2015. "Mining, regional development and benefit-sharing in developed countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 78-91.
    20. Colvin, R.M. & Przybyszewski, E., 2022. "Local residents' policy preferences in an energy contested region – The Upper Hunter, Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:64:y:2020:i:3:p:575-604. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.