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US agricultural exports and labor market adjustments

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  • Xi He
Abstract
This study empirically investigates the impact of US agricultural exports on farm and nonfarm employment and tests how individuals adjust to agricultural export shocks. Based on the data from 1991 to 2017 and a Bartik‐style instrument that exploits cross‐regional variation in agricultural export exposure stemming from initial differences in agricultural specialization and temporal variation in predicted US exports from exogenous tariff reductions, we find that a 1% increase in agricultural exports increases farm employment by 0.302% and has no statistically significant impact on nonfarm employment. The individual‐level analysis shows that, in response to positive agricultural export demand shocks, natives with a college degree are more likely to become self‐employed and start farm activities and while non‐natives without a college degree are more likely to become hired farmworkers. A back‐of‐the‐envelope calculation based on the estimates of agricultural trade elasticities of employment shows that on balance, job gains due to US agricultural exports are slightly larger than job loss due to agricultural imports, resulting in a net gain of around 0.24 million farm jobs over 1991–2017.

Suggested Citation

  • Xi He, 2020. "US agricultural exports and labor market adjustments," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(4), pages 609-621, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:51:y:2020:i:4:p:609-621
    DOI: 10.1111/agec.12575
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    2. Koliadenko, Svitlana & Andreichenko, Andrii & Galperina, Liubov & Minenko, Sofiia & Kovylina, Maria, 2020. "Analysis and forecasting of Ukrainian agrarian exports to the EU countries," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 6(3), September.
    3. Wang, Kai-Hua & Kan, Jia-Min & Qiu, Lianhong & Xu, Shulin, 2023. "Climate policy uncertainty, oil price and agricultural commodity: From quantile and time perspective," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 256-272.
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    5. Kim, Jiyeon & Yu, Jisang, 2023. "Assessing Differential Impacts of a Trade Agreement Using a Quantile Regression Approach," 2023: The Future of (Ag-) Trade and Trade Governance in Times of Economic Sanctions and Declining Multilateralism, December 10-12, Clearwater Beach, FL 339481, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    6. Kim, Jiyeon & Yu, Jisang, 2024. "The Impacts of the North American Free Trade Agreement on Farm Profitability and Survival," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343707, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Xi He, 2022. "Political and economic determinants of export restrictions in the agricultural and food sector," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(3), pages 439-453, May.
    8. Yu, Jisang & Villoria, Nelson B. & Hendricks, Nathan P., 2022. "The incidence of foreign market tariffs on farmland rental rates," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Yu, Jisang & Kim, Jiyeon, 2022. "Economic Impacts of Free Trade Agreements: The Case of the Korea-Chile Free Trade Agreement and Fruit Farms in Korea," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322229, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Boker Poumie & Herve Kaffo Fotio & Guy P. Dazoue Dongue, 2022. "The employment effects of intra‐African exports," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(4), pages 541-555, December.

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