Many central banks, particularly in the developing world, aim for exchange rate stability as a macroeconomic goal. However, most are reluctant to relinquish monetary policy autonomy, so they end up operating through both interest rate and foreign exchange interventions. But the use of multiple policy instruments does not necessarily equip monetary authorities with better tools to achieve their targets. On the contrary, their effects can potentially offset each other. Using daily data from the Central Bank of Colombia during the period of 1999–2012, I study the effects of simultaneous policies by first deriving new measures of monetary shocks and then determining their impact on economic activity. The main findings indicate that (a) while interest rate interventions have a significant impact on real and nominal variables, foreign exchange interventions tend to have limited effects; and (b) empirical anomalies, such as the positive relationship between output growth, inflation, and the policy rate are eliminated when properly accounting for the systematic responses of policy. (JEL E43, E52, E58, F31)"> Many central banks, particularly in the developing world, aim for exchange rate stability as a macroeconomic goal. However, most are reluctant to relinquish monetary policy autonomy, so they end up operating through both interest rate and foreign exchange interventions. But the use of multiple policy instruments does not necessarily equip monetary authorities with better tools to achieve their targets. On the contrary, their effects can potentially offset each other. Using daily data from the Central Bank of Colombia during the period of 1999–2012, I study the effects of simultaneous policies by first deriving new measures of monetary shocks and then determining their impact on economic activity. The main findings indicate that (a) while interest rate interventions have a significant impact on real and nominal variables, foreign exchange interventions tend to have limited effects; and (b) empirical anomalies, such as the positive relationship between output growth, inflation, and the policy rate are eliminated when properly accounting for the systematic responses of policy. (JEL E43, E52, E58, F31)"> Many central banks, particularly in the developing world, aim for exchange rate stability as a macroeconomic goal. However, most are reluc">
Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/coecpo/v34y2016i2p268-296.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying The Effects Of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas
Abstract
type="main" xml:id="coep12111-abs-0001"> Many central banks, particularly in the developing world, aim for exchange rate stability as a macroeconomic goal. However, most are reluctant to relinquish monetary policy autonomy, so they end up operating through both interest rate and foreign exchange interventions. But the use of multiple policy instruments does not necessarily equip monetary authorities with better tools to achieve their targets. On the contrary, their effects can potentially offset each other. Using daily data from the Central Bank of Colombia during the period of 1999–2012, I study the effects of simultaneous policies by first deriving new measures of monetary shocks and then determining their impact on economic activity. The main findings indicate that (a) while interest rate interventions have a significant impact on real and nominal variables, foreign exchange interventions tend to have limited effects; and (b) empirical anomalies, such as the positive relationship between output growth, inflation, and the policy rate are eliminated when properly accounting for the systematic responses of policy. (JEL E43, E52, E58, F31)

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Identifying The Effects Of Simultaneous Monetary Policy Shocks," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 268-296, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:34:y:2016:i:2:p:268-296
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/coep.2016.34.issue-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    2. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    4. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    6. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    7. Juan José Echavarría S. & Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 2009. "Intervenciones cambiarias y política monetaria en Colombia. Un análisis de VAR estructural," Borradores de Economia 580, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Hamilton, James D, 1997. "Measuring the Liquidity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 80-97, March.
    9. Gustavo Adler & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora, 2011. "Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Shield Against Appreciation Winds?," IMF Working Papers 2011/165, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Wasserfallen, Walter & Kursteiner, Guido, 1994. "Interest rates and exchange rates under money supply targets: The Swiss evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 201-230, February.
    11. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June.
    12. Mr. Cem Karacadag & Roberto Guimarães-Filho, 2004. "The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: The Cases of Mexico and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2004/123, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    14. Juan José Echavarría & Mauricio Villamizar & Diego Vásquez, 2010. "Impacto de las intervenciones cambiarias sobre el nivel y la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(62), pages 12-69, June.
    15. Jorge Toro & Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Efectividad De La Intervención Discrecional Del Banco De La República En El Mercado Cambiario," Borradores de Economia 2411, Banco de la Republica.
    16. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    17. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    18. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1973. "Regression Analysis when the Dependent Variable is Truncated Normal," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 997-1016, November.
    19. Richard H. Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1997. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 363-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. repec:pri:cepsud:129blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    22. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    23. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & David Perez-Reyna, 2017. "A Theoretical Approach To Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 343-365, February.
    24. Alan S. Blinder, 2006. "Monetary Policy Today: Sixteen Questions and about Twelve Answers," Working Papers 73, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    25. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Rubén Albeiro Loaiza Maya & Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2015. "Latin American Exchange Rate Dependencies: A Regular Vine Copula Approach," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(3), pages 535-549, July.
    27. Joshua D. Angrist & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2011. "Causal Effects of Monetary Shocks: Semiparametric Conditional Independence Tests with a Multinomial Propensity Score," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 725-747, August.
    28. Tao Zha, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy: a primer," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 82(Q 2), pages 26-43.
    29. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 7, pages 285-367, Elsevier.
    30. Hernán Rincón & Jorge Toro, 2010. "Are Capital Controls and Central Bank Intervention Effective?," Borradores de Economia 7622, Banco de la Republica.
    31. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-931, November.
    32. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    33. Disyatat, Piti & Galati, Gabriele, 2007. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: Evidence from the Czech koruna," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 383-402, April.
    34. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    35. repec:awi:wpaper:0417 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Ball, Laurence, 1995. "Time-consistent policy and persistent changes in inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 329-350, November.
    37. Juan José Echavarría & Mauricio Villamizar & colaboración Juanita González, 2006. "El Proceso Colombiano de Desindustrialización," Borradores de Economia 361, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    38. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-948, November.
    39. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053, October.
    40. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 231-272, April.
    41. Herman Kamil, 2008. "Is Central Bank Intervention Effective Under Inflation Targeting Regimes? The Case of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 2008/088, International Monetary Fund.
    42. Kim, Soyoung, 2003. "Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, and the exchange rate in a unifying framework," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 355-386, August.
    43. Alan S. Blinder, 2006. "Monetary Policy Today: Sixteen Questions and about Twelve Answers," Working Papers 73, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    44. Wendelin Schnedler, 2005. "Likelihood Estimation for Censored Random Vectors," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 195-217.
    45. Joshua D. Angrist & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2004. "Semiparametric Causality Tests Using the Policy Propensity Score," NBER Working Papers 10975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juan J. Echavarría & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1319-1336, November.
    2. Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel & Hernandez-Leal, Juan D. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2018. "When multiple objectives meet multiple instruments: Identifying simultaneous monetary shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-101.
    3. Daniel Ordoñez‐Callamand & Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Luis F. Melo‐Velandia, 2018. "Foreign exchange intervention revisited: A new way of estimating censored models," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 195-213, June.
    4. Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
    5. Yasin Kursat Onder & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "The Effects of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 159-199, January.
    6. Juan Camilo Medellín-Martínez, 2018. "Public Savings and the Effectiveness of Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 36(85), pages 117-136, November.
    7. Juan David Durán-Vanegas, 2015. "Do foreign exchange interventions work as coordinating signals in Colombia?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(78), pages 169-175, December.
    8. Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & David Perez-Reyna, 2017. "A Theoretical Approach To Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 343-365, February.
    9. José Antonio Ocampo & Germán D. Orbegozo & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & Nicolás Fajardo-Baquero & Oscar Botero-Ramírez & Camilo OrozcoVanegas, 2020. "Post-graduation from the original sin problem The effects of investor participation on sovereign debt markets," Borradores de Economia 1113, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Boris Hofmann & Hyun Song Shin & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2019. "FX intervention and domestic credit: evidence from high-frequency micro data," Borradores de Economia 1069, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Pontines, Victor & Luvsannyam, Davaajargal & Atarbaatar, Enkhjin & Munkhtsetseg, Ulziikhutag, 2021. "The effectiveness of currency intervention: Evidence from Mongolia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    12. Hernando Vargas & Pamela Cardozo & Mauricio Villamizar, 2019. "International reserve policy and the effectiveness of sterilized FX intervention in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Reserve management and FX intervention, volume 104, pages 103-116, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Kuersteiner, Guido M. & Phillips, David C. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2018. "Effective sterilized foreign exchange intervention? Evidence from a rule-based policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 118-138.
    14. José Antonio Ocampo & Jonathan Malagón González & Juan Sebastian Betancur, 2015. "La banca central colombiana en una década de expansión, 2003-2013," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Economía, edition 1, number 72, August.
    15. Freddy A. Pinzón-Puerto & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2023. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? A Foreign Exchange Intervention Analysis," Borradores de Economia 1223, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel & Hernandez-Leal, Juan D. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2018. "When multiple objectives meet multiple instruments: Identifying simultaneous monetary shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-101.
    2. Juan J. Echavarría & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1319-1336, November.
    3. Tobal Martín & Yslas Renato, 2016. "Two Models of FX Market Interventions: The Cases of Brazil and Mexico," Working Papers 2016-14, Banco de México.
    4. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Skotida, Ifigeneia, 2010. "Some empirical evidence on the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on cross exchange rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 386-394, August.
    5. Cucciniello, Maria Chiara & Deleidi, Matteo & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2022. "The cost channel of monetary policy: The case of the United States in the period 1959–2018," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 409-433.
    6. Yasin Kursat Onder & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "The Effects of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 159-199, January.
    7. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2016. "Monetary policies and the macroeconomic performance of Vietnam," OSF Preprints akzy4, Center for Open Science.
    8. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    9. R. Bonci & F. Columba, 2008. "Monetary policy effects: new evidence from the Italian flow-of-funds," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(21), pages 2803-2818.
    10. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Magginas, Nicholas S., 2006. "Forward-looking information in VAR models and the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1225-1234, September.
    11. Sun, Rongrong, 2014. "Review over Empirical Evidence on Real Effects of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 58513, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Croushore, Dean & Evans, Charles L., 2006. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1135-1160, September.
    13. James Cloyne & Patrick Hürtgen, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: A New Measure for the United Kingdom," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 75-102, October.
    14. Thanabalasingam Vinayagathasan, 2014. "Monetary policy and the real economy: A structural VAR approach for Sri Lanka," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(1), pages 41-64, January.
    15. Schabert, Andreas, 2005. "Identifying monetary policy shocks with changes in open market operations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 561-577, April.
    16. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Giorgio Di Giorgio, 1999. "Monetary policy shocks and transmission in Italy: A VAR analysis," Economics Working Papers 446, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    17. M. Berument & Selahattin Togay & Afsin Sahin, 2011. "Identifying the Liquidity Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks for a Small Open Economy: Turkey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 649-667, September.
    18. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    19. Vashchelyuk, N.V. (Ващелюк, Н.В.) & Polbin, Andrey (Полбин, Андрей) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2016. "The Econometric Estimation of the Macroeconomic Effects of the Shock of Monetary Policy for the Russian Economy [Эконометрическая Оценка Макроэкономических Эффектов Шока Денежно-Кредитной Политики ," Working Papers 2133, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    20. Ashesh Rambachan & Neil Shephard, 2019. "Econometric analysis of potential outcomes time series: instruments, shocks, linearity and the causal response function," Papers 1903.01637, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:34:y:2016:i:2:p:268-296. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/weaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.