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The Canadian Debt-Strategy Model

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Abstract
In its role as fiscal agent to the government, the Bank of Canada provides analysis and advice on decisions about the government's domestic debt portfolio. Debt-management decisions depend on assumptions about future interest rates, macroeconomic outcomes, and fiscal policy, yet when a debt-strategy decision is taken, none of these factors can be known with certainty. Moreover, the government has various financing options (i.e., treasury bills, nominal bonds, and inflation-linked bonds) to meet its objectives of minimizing debt-service charges while simultaneously ensuring a prudent risk profile and well-functioning government securities markets. Bank of Canada staff have therefore developed a mathematical model to assist in the decision-making process. This article describes the key aspects of the debt manager's challenge and the principal assumptions incorporated in the debt-strategy model, illustrated with specific results.

Suggested Citation

  • David Bolder, 2008. "The Canadian Debt-Strategy Model," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2008(Summer), pages 5-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:2008:y:2008:i:summer08:p:5-18
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    Cited by:

    1. Baghdassarian, William & Mele, Gianluca & Pradelli, Juan, 2014. "Assessing public debt sustainability in Mauritania with a stochastic framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7088, The World Bank.
    2. Paul Glasserman & Amit Sirohi & Allen Zhang, 2017. "The effect of “regular and predictable” issuance on Treasury bill financing," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-1, pages 43-56.
    3. Dottori, Davide & Manna, Michele, 2016. "Strategy and tactics in public debt management," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-25.
    4. Corey Garriott & Sophie Lefebvre & Guillaume Nolin & Francisco Rivadeneyra & Adrian Walton, 2020. "Alternative futures for Government of Canada debt management," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(4), pages 659-685, January.
    5. Andrea Consiglio & Alessandro Staino, 2012. "A stochastic programming model for the optimal issuance of government bonds," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 193(1), pages 159-172, March.
    6. Celestino Girón & Marta Morano & Enrique M. Quilis & Daniel Santabárbara & Carlos Torregrosa, 2016. "Modelling interest payments for macroeconomic assessment," Working Papers 1612, Banco de España.
    7. Michele Manna & Emmanuela Bernardini & Mauro Bufano & Davide Dottori, 2013. "Modelling public debt strategies," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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