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Portugal in the Eurozone: Evolution and Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Bação
  • Sara Cerdeira
  • António Portugal Duarte
Abstract
At the time of joining the European Economic Community (precursor to the European Union) and the Eurozone, Portuguese agents were very optimistic about the level of development that the country would be able to achieve as a result of being a member of those economic areas. In this paper we describe the changes occurred in the Portuguese economy since joining the European Union and later the Eurozone. In addition, we provide estimates of the evolution of the expectations of Portuguese agents with respect to long-term real per capita GDP, based on a simple intertemporal macroeconomic model. Over the period under analysis, there was an impressive progress in standards of living. Before joining the euro, Portuguese agents were optimistic about long-term income. Expectations remained high until the onset of the debt crisis, at which time expectations collapsed. A slow recovery is visible in our estimates for the most recent years. JEL Codes - E64; F43; F45; O19

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Bação & Sara Cerdeira & António Portugal Duarte, 2019. "Portugal in the Eurozone: Evolution and Expectations," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 66(si), pages 173-189, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aic:saebjn:v:66:y:2019:i:si:p:173-189:n:170
    DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2019-0033
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    6. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Irsova, Zuzana & Rusnak, Marek, 2015. "Cross-country heterogeneity in intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 100-118.
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    13. António Duarte, 2009. "The Portuguese Disinflation Process: Analysis of Some Costs and Benefits," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 16(1), pages 157-173, May.
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    17. Pedro Bação & António Portugal Duarte & Diogo Viveiros, 2018. "An Aggregate View of Portuguese Exports and Competitiveness," CeBER Working Papers 2018-08, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    development; euro; European Union; macroeconomic expectations; Portugal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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