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Fundamental Economic Shocks and the Macroeconomy

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  • CHARLES L. EVANS
  • DAVID A. MARSHALL
Abstract
We ask how macroeconomic and financial variables respond to empirical measures of shocks to technology, labor supply, and monetary policy. These three shocks account for the preponderance of output, productivity, and price fluctuations. Only technology shocks have a permanent impact on economic activity. Labor inputs have little initial response to technology shocks. Monetary policy has a small response to technology shocks but “leans against the wind” in response to the more cyclical labor supply shock. This shock has the biggest impact on interest rates. Stock prices respond to all three shocks. Other empirical implications of our approach are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles L. Evans & David A. Marshall, 2009. "Fundamental Economic Shocks and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1515-1555, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:8:p:1515-1555
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00271.x
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    3. William T. Gavin & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2008. "Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 175-192.
    4. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    5. Jieun Lee, 2022. "Evidence and Strategy on Economic Distance in Spatially Augmented Solow-Swan Growth Model," Papers 2209.05562, arXiv.org.
    6. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2019. "A note on the effects of skill-biased technical change on productivity flattening," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 772-784.
    7. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    8. Bruno Perdigão, 2019. "“Still" an Agnostic Procedure to Identify Monetary Policy Shocks with Sign Restrictions," Working Papers Series 494, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2013. "Reconciling narrative monetary policy disturbances with structural VAR model shocks?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 247-251.
    10. Anthony M. Diercks & William Waller, 2017. "Taxes and the Fed : Theory and Evidence from Equities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2021. "Labour market miracle, productivity debacle: Measuring the effects of skill-biased and skill-neutral technical change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

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