Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/macann/doi10.1086-707173.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of White, Non-College-Educated Americans Born in the 1960s

Author

Listed:
  • Margherita Borella
  • Mariacristina De Nardi
  • Fang Yang
Abstract
White, non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s face shorter life expectancies, higher medical expenses, and lower wages per unit of human capital compared with those born in the 1940s; men’s wages declined more than women’s. After documenting these changes, we use a life-cycle model of couples and singles to evaluate their effects. The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. Their shorter life expectancy reduced their retirement savings, but the increase in out-of-pocket medical expenses increased savings by more. Welfare losses, measured as a onetime asset compensation, are 12.5%, 8%, and 7.2% of the present discounted value of earnings for single men, couples, and single women, respectively. Lower wages explain 47%–58% of these losses, shorter life expectancies 25%–34%, and higher medical expenses account for the rest.

Suggested Citation

  • Margherita Borella & Mariacristina De Nardi & Fang Yang, 2020. "The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of White, Non-College-Educated Americans Born in the 1960s," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 67-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/707173
    DOI: 10.1086/707173
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/707173
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/707173
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/707173?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svetlana Pashchenko & Ponpoje (Poe) Porapakkarm & Mariacristina De Nardi, 2017. "The Lifetime Costs of Bad Health," 2017 Meeting Papers 533, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Giovanni Gallipoli & Laura Turner, 2009. "Household Responses to Individual Shocks: Disability and Labor Supply," Working Paper series 04_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. Gouveia, Miguel & Strauss, Robert P., 1994. "Effective Federal Individual Tax Functions: An Exploratory Empirical Analysis," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 47(2), pages 317-339, June.
    4. David Wiczer & Amanda Michaud, 2017. "The Disability Option: Labor Market Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Health Risks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1459, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Raquel Fernández & Joyce Cheng Wong, 2014. "Divorce Risk, Wages and Working Wives: A Quantitative Life‐Cycle Analysis of Female Labour Force Participation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 319-358, May.
    6. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst, 2007. "Measuring Trends in Leisure: The Allocation of Time Over Five Decades," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(3), pages 969-1006.
    7. Margherita Borella & Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French, 2018. "Who Receives Medicaid in Old Age? Rules and Reality," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 65-93, March.
    8. Giulio Fella & Giovanni Gallipoli, 2014. "Education and Crime over the Life Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(4), pages 1484-1517.
    9. Zvi Eckstein & Michael Keane & Osnat Lifshitz, 2019. "Career and Family Decisions: Cohorts Born 1935–1975," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 217-253, January.
    10. Alberini, Anna & Cropper, Maureen & Krupnick, Alan & Simon, N.B.Nathalie B., 2004. "Does the value of a statistical life vary with age and health status? Evidence from the US and Canada," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 769-792, July.
    11. Margherita Borella & Mariacristina De Nardi & Fang Yang, 2017. "The Effects of Marriage-Related Taxes and Social Security Benefits," NBER Working Papers 23972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2015. "Understanding the Increase in Disability Insurance Benefit Receipt in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 123-150, Spring.
    13. Gouveia, Miguel & Strauss, Robert P., 1994. "Effective Federal Individual Tax Functions: An Exploratory Empirical Analysis," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 47(2), pages 317-39, June.
    14. Anne Case & Angua Deaton, 2015. "Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century," Working Papers 15078.full.pdf, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    15. Raquel Fernández & Joyce Cheng Wong, 2017. "Free to Leave? A Welfare Analysis of Divorce Regimes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 72-115, July.
    16. Patrick Bayer & Kerwin Kofi Charles, 2018. "Divergent Paths: A New Perspective on Earnings Differences Between Black and White Men Since 1940," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1459-1501.
    17. Nicolas A. Roys & Christopher R. Taber, 2019. "Skill Prices, Occupations, and Changes in the Wage Structure for Low Skilled Men," NBER Working Papers 26453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Raquel Fernández & Joyce C. Wong, 2014. "Divorce Risk, Wages, and Working Wives: A Quantitative Life-Cycle Analysis of Female Labor Force Participation," NBER Working Papers 19869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Sturrock, 2023. "Wealth and welfare across generations," IFS Working Papers W23/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Yu, Zhixiu, 2024. "Why are older men working more? The role of social security," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Richard Blundell & James P. Ziliak & Hugo Lopez, 2023. "Labour market inequality and the changing life cycle profile of male and female wages," IFS Working Papers W23/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Nicolas A. Roys & Christopher R. Taber, 2019. "Skill Prices, Occupations, and Changes in the Wage Structure for Low Skilled Men," NBER Working Papers 26453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Margherita Borella & Mariacristina De Nardi & Fang Yang, 2019. "The lost ones: the opportunities and outcomes of non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s," Working Papers 2019-022, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    2. Margherita Borella & Fang Yang & Mariacristina De Nardi, 2019. "The changing opportunities and outcomes of non-college educated Americans," 2019 Meeting Papers 206, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Margherita Borella & Mariacristina De Nardi & Fang Yang, 2023. "Are Marriage-Related Taxes and Social Security Benefits Holding Back Female Labour Supply?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 102-131.
    4. De Nardi, Mariacristina & Borella, Margherita & Yang, Fang, 2017. "Marriage-related policies in an estimated life-cycle model of households' labor supply and savings for two cohorts," CEPR Discussion Papers 12390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Margherita Borella & Mariacristina De Nardi & Fang Yang, 2017. "The Effects of Marriage-Related Taxes and Social Security Benefits," NBER Working Papers 23972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. García-Morán, Eva & Kuehn, Zoe, 2023. "Till mess do us part: Married women's market hours, home production, and divorce," MPRA Paper 119324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Sebastian Koehne & Nicola Pavoni & Arpad Abraham, 2011. "Optimal Income Taxation with Asset Accumulation," 2011 Meeting Papers 1161, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Tomoaki Kotera, 2020. "Sustainability of Social Security in the Aging Economy from the Perspective of Improving Health," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    9. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    10. Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri & Alessandra Voena, 2018. "Marriage, Labor Supply and the Dynamics of the Social Safety Net," NBER Working Papers 24356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Svetlana Pashchenko & Ponpoje Porapakkarm, 2024. "Accounting For Social Security Claiming Behavior," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(1), pages 505-545, February.
    12. Elizabeth Caucutt & Nezih Guner & Christopher Rauh, 2018. "Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide," Working Papers 2018-074, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    13. Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2023. "Health Risk, Insurance, and Optimal Progressive Income Taxation," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2043-2097.
    14. Nygaard, Vegard M. & Sørensen, Bent E. & Wang, Fan, 2022. "Optimal allocations to heterogeneous agents with an application to stimulus checks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. KITAO Sagiri & MIKOSHIBA Minamo, 2022. "Why Women Work the Way They Do in Japan: Roles of Fiscal Policies," Discussion papers 22016, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    16. Emanuela Cardia & Paul Gomme, 2018. "Market Work, Housework and Childcare: A Time Use Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 1-14, July.
    17. Davis, Lewis S. & Williamson, Claudia R., 2022. "Individualism and women's economic rights," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 579-597.
    18. Juan Carlos Conesa & Bo Li & Qian Li, 2020. "Universal Basic Income and Progressive Consumption Taxes," Department of Economics Working Papers 20-01, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    19. Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2018. "Optimal Progressive Income Taxation in a Bewley-Grossman Framework," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2018-662, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    20. Jean-Felix Brouillette & Charles I. Jones & Peter J. Klenow, 2021. "Race and Economic Well-Being in the United States," NBER Working Papers 29539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/707173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/MA .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.