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Why the Police Have an Effect on Violent Crime After All: Evidence from the British Crime Survey

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  • Ben Vollaard
  • Joseph Hamed
Abstract
We present evidence that the use of police statistics as a source of crime data can seriously bias empirical tests of the model of deterrence. We use data for 21 areas in England and Wales in 2001-8. In addition to police-recorded crime data, we use victim-reported crime data from the British Crime Survey that are unaffected by changes in public reporting of crime and police recording of crime. We find that the estimated effect of the number of police on recorded and victim-reported crime is similar for property crime but different for violent crime. Our findings suggest that higher numbers of police not only reduce crime rates but also increase the share of crime, and in particular violent crime, that finds its way into police statistics. The resulting estimation bias is found to be large.

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  • Ben Vollaard & Joseph Hamed, 2012. "Why the Police Have an Effect on Violent Crime After All: Evidence from the British Crime Survey," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(4), pages 901-924.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlawec:doi:10.1086/666614
    DOI: 10.1086/666614
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    1. Mirko Draca & Stephen Machin & Robert Witt, 2011. "Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2005 Terror Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2157-2181, August.
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    11. Vollaard, Ben & Koning, Pierre, 2009. "The effect of police on crime, disorder and victim precaution. Evidence from a Dutch victimization survey," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 336-348, December.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Gupta, Manish & Sachdeva, Payal, 2017. "Economic, Demographic, Deterrent Variables And Crime Rate In India," MPRA Paper 80181, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2017.
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    6. Christophe Bellégo & Joeffrey Drouard, 2019. "Does It Pay to Fight Crime? Evidence From the Pacification of Slums in Rio de Janeiro," Working Papers 2019-08, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    7. Dhammika Dharmapala & Nuno Garoupa & Richard H. McAdams, 2016. "Punitive Police? Agency Costs, Law Enforcement, and Criminal Procedure," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(1), pages 105-141.
    8. Pina-Sánchez, Jose & Buil-Gil, David & brunton-smith, ian & Cernat, Alexandru, 2021. "The impact of measurement error in models using police recorded crime rates," SocArXiv ydf4b, Center for Open Science.
    9. Itai Ater & Yehonatan Givati & Oren Rigbi, 2017. "The Economics of Rights: Does the Right to Counsel Increase Crime?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 1-27, May.
    10. David Frayman & Christian Krekel & Richard Layard & Sara MacLennan & Isaac Parkes, 2024. "Value for money: How to improve wellbeing and reduce misery," CEP Reports 44, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    11. Mechoulan, Stéphane, 2020. "Civil unrest, emergency powers, and spillover effects: A mixed methods analysis of the 2005 French riots," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 305-326.
    12. Evan M. Calford & Gregory DeAngelo, 2023. "Ambiguity and enforcement," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(2), pages 304-338, April.
    13. Harvey, Anna & Mattia, Taylor, 2024. "Reducing racial disparities in crime victimization: Evidence from employment discrimination litigation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
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    15. Federico Masera, 2022. "The economics of policing and crimeThe economics of policing and crime," Chapters, in: Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Vanin & Juan Vargas (ed.), A Modern Guide to the Economics of Crime, chapter 2, pages 12-29, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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