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A review of Chinese CO 2 emission projections to 2030: the role of economic structure and policy

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  • Michael Grubb
  • Fu Sha
  • Thomas Spencer
  • Nick Hughes
  • Zhongxiang Zhang
  • Paolo Agnolucci
Abstract
The projections of 89 scenarios from 12 different models for the CO 2 emissions of China to 2030 are reviewed, along with wider examinations of lessons from the history of energy forecasting in OECD countries, and of the Chinese macroeconomic situation.Even by 2030, emissions in the scenarios span a factor of almost 2.5, indicating significant range and uncertainty. Statistical analysis of Kaya components suggests the carbon intensity of energy supply to be the strongest determining factor. However, most scenarios assume that industry-super-1 continues to account for more than 50% of total final energy demand. This is in contrast both to historical examples, which have consistently shown economies shifting from energy-intensive industrial bases to service-based structures as income per capita rises, and to recent Chinese policy statements, which reflect a similar ambition. It is also highly salient that major failures in energy and emissions projections can frequently be accounted for in retrospect by failures to anticipate such major economic structural shifts.In conclusion, while the future trajectory of Chinese emissions remains profoundly uncertain, the potential for a significant Chinese macroeconomic transition and its implications for the scale and structure of energy demand will be a crucial factor, to which energy-climate models must pay far more attention. Policy relevance The dramatic growth of Chinese emissions since 2000 has become a major factor in global emission prospects and the international political agenda. Many models project rapid continued emissions growth, but an apparent halt in Chinese emissions in 2014 has amplified debate. Projections and policy need to recognise fundamental uncertainties in emission prospects, because in addition to energy/climate-specific policies, they depend on the progress in Chinese macroeconomic reforms, which are poorly represented in the models we survey. Global projections, the international process, and the design of China's own policies (most obviously, its national cap-and-trade system) need to cope with the possibility of continued growth to peaking in 2030 (the central commitment in China's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution), but must also be prepared to exploit and encourage the possibilities of low-carbon development and much earlier peaking.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Grubb & Fu Sha & Thomas Spencer & Nick Hughes & Zhongxiang Zhang & Paolo Agnolucci, 2015. "A review of Chinese CO 2 emission projections to 2030: the role of economic structure and policy," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(sup1), pages 7-39, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:15:y:2015:i:sup1:p:s7-s39
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2015.1101307
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    Cited by:

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    4. Rodríguez, Miguel, 2022. "Why do many prospective analyses of CO2 emissions fail? An illustrative example from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
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    11. Peng Zhang & Maosheng Duan & Guangzhi Yin, 2018. "The Periodic Characteristics of China’s Economic Carbon Intensity Change and the Impacts of Economic Transformation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-21, April.
    12. Wu, Rui & Dai, Hancheng & Geng, Yong & Xie, Yang & Tian, Xu, 2019. "Impacts of export restructuring on national economy and CO2 emissions: A general equilibrium analysis for China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C), pages 64-78.
    13. Joshua Sunday Riti & Deyong Song & Yang Shu & Miriam Kamah & Agya Adi Atabani, 2018. "Does renewable energy ensure environmental quality in favour of economic growth? Empirical evidence from China’s renewable development," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(5), pages 2007-2030, September.
    14. Ekundayo P. Mesagan & Wakeel A. Isola & Kazeem B. Ajide, 2019. "The capital investment channel of environmental improvement: evidence from BRICS," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1561-1582, August.
    15. Xunzhang, Pan & Wenying, Chen & Clarke, Leon E. & Lining, Wang & Guannan, Liu, 2017. "China's energy system transformation towards the 2°C goal: Implications of different effort-sharing principles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 116-126.
    16. Weng, Qingqing & Xu, He, 2018. "A review of China’s carbon trading market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 613-619.
    17. Ian W.H. Parry & Baoping Shang & Mr. Philippe Wingender & Nate Vernon-Lin & Tarun Narasimhan, 2016. "Climate Mitigation in China: Which Policies Are Most Effective?," IMF Working Papers 2016/148, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Ian Parry & Baoping Shang & Nate Vernon & Philippe Wingender & Tarun Narasimhan, 2020. "Evaluating policies to implement the Paris Agreement: a toolkit with application to China," Chapters, in: Graciela Chichilnisky & Armon Rezai (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Climate Change, chapter 2, pages 32-67, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Wähling, Lara-Sophie & Fridahl, Mathias & Heimann, Tobias & Merk, Christine, 2023. "The sequence matters: Expert opinions on policy mechanisms for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 275739, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Chen Zhao & Jiaxuan Zhu & Zhiyao Xu & Yixuan Wang & Bin Liu & Lu Yuan & Xiaowen Wang & Jiali Xiong & Yiming Zhao, 2022. "The Effect of Air Pollution Control Auditing on Reducing Carbon Emissions: Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-15, December.
    21. Chien, FengSheng & Chau, Ka Yin & Sadiq, Muhammad, 2023. "Impact of climate mitigation technology and natural resource management on climate change in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

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