Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/tcpoxx/v8y2008isup1ps30-s45.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Achieving the G8 50% target: modelling induced and accelerated technological change using the macro-econometric model E3MG

Author

Listed:
  • TERRY BARKER
  • S. SERBAN SCRIECIU
  • TIM FOXON
Abstract
This article assesses the feasibility of a 50% reduction in CO 2 emissions by 2050 using a large-scale Post Keynesian simulation model of the global energy-environment-economy system. The main policy to achieve the target is a carbon price rising to $100/tCO 2 by 2050, attained through auctioned CO 2 permits for the energy sector, and carbon taxes for the rest of the economy. This policy induces technological change. However, this price is insufficient, and global CO 2 would be only about 15% below 2000 levels by 2050. In order to achieve the target, additional policies have been modelled in a portfolio, with the auction and tax revenues partly recycled to support investment in low-GHG technologies in energy, manufacturing and transportation, and 'no-regrets' options for buildings. This direct support supplements the effects of the increases in carbon prices, so that the accelerated adoption of new technologies leads to lower unit costs. In addition the $100/tCO 2 price is reached earlier, by 2030, strengthening the price signal. In a low-carbon society, as modelled, GDP is slightly above the baseline as a consequence of more rapid development induced by more investment and increased technological change.

Suggested Citation

  • Terry Barker & S. Serban Scrieciu & Tim Foxon, 2008. "Achieving the G8 50% target: modelling induced and accelerated technological change using the macro-econometric model E3MG," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages 30-45, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:8:y:2008:i:sup1:p:s30-s45
    DOI: 10.3763/cpol.2007.0490
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.3763/cpol.2007.0490
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3763/cpol.2007.0490?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Setterfield (ed.), 2002. "The Economics of Demand-Led Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1864.
    2. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801, October.
    3. Stephen J. DeCanio, 2003. "Economic Models of Climate Change," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-50946-7, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Hoogwijk, Monique & Barker, Terry & Riahi, Keywan & Boeters, Stefan & Chateau, Jean & Scrieciu, Serban & van Vliet, Jasper & Masui, Toshihiko & Blok, Kornelis & Blomen, Eliane , 2009. "Comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates of sectoral and regional greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5125-5139, December.
    2. Kronenberg, Tobias, 2010. "Finding common ground between ecological economics and post-Keynesian economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 1488-1494, May.
    3. Beltrán, Allan & Alatorre, José Eduardo & Ferrer, Jimy & Galindo, Luis Miguel, 2017. "Efectos potenciales de un impuesto al carbono sobre el producto interno bruto en los países de América Latina: estimaciones preliminares e hipotéticas a partir de un metaanálisis y una función de tran," Documentos de Proyectos 41867, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Gupta, Monika & Bandyopadhyay, Kaushik Ranjan & Singh, Sanjay K., 2019. "Measuring effectiveness of carbon tax on Indian road passenger transport: A system dynamics approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 341-354.
    5. Fouquet, Roger, 2010. "The slow search for solutions: Lessons from historical energy transitions by sector and service," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6586-6596, November.
    6. Sijm, Jos & Lehmann, Paul & Chewpreecha, Unnada & Gawel, Erik & Mercure, Jean-Francois & Pollitt, Hector & Strunz, Sebastian, 2014. "EU climate and energy policy beyond 2020: Are additional targets and instruments for renewables economically reasonable?," UFZ Discussion Papers 3/2014, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
    7. Rout, Ullash K. & Blesl, Markus & Fahl, Ulrich & Remme, Uwe & Voß, Alfred, 2009. "Uncertainty in the learning rates of energy technologies: An experiment in a global multi-regional energy system model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4927-4942, November.
    8. Pollitt, Hector & Park, Seung-Joon & Lee, Soocheol & Ueta, Kazuhiro, 2014. "An economic and environmental assessment of future electricity generation mixes in Japan – an assessment using the E3MG macro-econometric model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 243-254.
    9. Scrieciu, S. Şerban & Barker, Terry & Ackerman, Frank, 2013. "Pushing the boundaries of climate economics: critical issues to consider in climate policy analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 155-165.
    10. Terry Barker & Douglas Crawford-Brown, 2013. "Are estimated costs of stringent mitigation biased?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 129-138, November.
    11. Shum, Kwok L., 2017. "Renewable energy deployment policy: A transition management perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1380-1388.
    12. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Csordás, Stefan & Mevel, Simon, 2011. "When does a carbon tax on fossil fuels stimulate biofuels?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2400-2415.
    13. Kum Yeen Wong & Joon Huang Chuah & Chris Hope, 2019. "As an emerging economy, should Malaysia adopt carbon taxation?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(1), pages 91-108, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John M. Gowdy, 2013. "Valuing nature for climate change policy: from discounting the future to truly social deliberation," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 25, pages 547-560, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Kristine Belesova & Ilan Kelman & Roger Boyd, 2016. "Governance through Economic Paradigms: Addressing Climate Change by Accounting for Health," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(4), pages 87-96.
    3. Nelson, Julie A., 2008. "Economists, value judgments, and climate change: A view from feminist economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 441-447, April.
    4. Stephen Newbold & Adam Daigneault, 2009. "Climate Response Uncertainty and the Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(3), pages 351-377, November.
    5. Bayes Ahmed & Ilan Kelman & Heather K. Fehr & Manik Saha, 2016. "Community Resilience to Cyclone Disasters in Coastal Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-29, August.
    6. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    7. John Gowdy & Roxana Juliá, 2010. "Global Warming Economics in the Long Run: A Conceptual Framework," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(1), pages 117-130.
    8. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "A Proposal for a New Prescriptive Discounting Scheme: The Intergenerational Discount Rate," Working Papers 2008.47, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Strand, Jon, 2011. "Carbon offsets with endogenous environmental policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 371-378, March.
    10. Oliver Schenker, 2013. "Exchanging Goods and Damages: The Role of Trade on the Distribution of Climate Change Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 261-282, February.
    11. Alejandro Lopez-Feldman, 2013. "Climate change, agriculture, and poverty: A household level analysis for rural Mexico," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1126-1139.
    12. Bikki Jaggi & Alessandra Allini & Riccardo Macchioni & Annamaria Zampella, 2018. "Do investors find carbon information useful? Evidence from Italian firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1031-1056, May.
    13. Steve Newbold & Charles Griffiths & Christopher C. Moore & Ann Wolverton & Elizabeth Kopits, 2010. "The "Social Cost of Carbon" Made Simple," NCEE Working Paper Series 201007, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Aug 2010.
    14. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    15. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    16. Grüll, Georg & Taschini, Luca, 2011. "Cap-and-trade properties under different hybrid scheme designs," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 107-118, January.
    17. Sam Fankhauser & Cameron Hepburn, 2009. "Carbon markets in space and time," GRI Working Papers 3, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    18. Maxmillan Martin & Yi hyun Kang & Motasim Billah & Tasneem Siddiqui & Richard Black & Dominic Kniveton, 2017. "Climate-influenced migration in Bangladesh: The need for a policy realignment," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 35, pages 357-379, October.
    19. Dietz, Simon & Gollier, Christian & Kessler, Louise, 2018. "The climate beta," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 258-274.
    20. Stefano Bartolini & Francesco Sarracino, 2021. "Happier and Sustainable. Possibilities for a post-growth society," Department of Economics University of Siena 855, Department of Economics, University of Siena.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:8:y:2008:i:sup1:p:s30-s45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/tcpo20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.