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The determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia: evidence from panel data

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  • Teguh Dartanto
  • Nurkholis
Abstract
We use the 'spell' approach to identifying poverty and apply an ordered logit model to examine the determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia, categorising households as poor, transient poor (--), transient poor (+) or non-poor. Observing the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) balanced-panel data sets of 2005 and 2007, we found that 28% of poor households are classified as chronically poor (that is, remaining poor in two periods) while 7% of non-poor households are vulnerable to being transient poor (--). Our estimations confirmed that the determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia are educational attainment, the number of household members, physical assets, employment status, health shocks, the microcredit program, access to electricity, and changes in employment sector, employment status and the number of household members. We also found that households in Java--Bali are more vulnerable to negative shocks than those outside Java--Bali.

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  • Teguh Dartanto & Nurkholis, 2013. "The determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia: evidence from panel data," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 61-84, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:49:y:2013:i:1:p:61-84
    DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2013.772939
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1998. "Determinants of transient and chronic poverty : evidence from rural China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1936, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hal Hill, 2020. "Indonesian Living Standards over 50 Years: A Multidimensional Analysis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 249-274, September.
    2. Andy Sumner, 2014. "Who are likely to be the future poor in Indonesia? Evidence on primary school non-completion from six rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey, 1991-2012," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201406, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised May 2014.
    3. Nosier, Shereen & Beram, Reham & Mahrous, Mohamed, 2021. "Household Poverty in Egypt: Poverty Profile, Econometric Modeling and Policy Simulations," SocArXiv d8spt, Center for Open Science.
    4. Eunkyoung Kim & Soonman Kwon, 2021. "The effect of catastrophic health expenditure on exit from poverty among the poor in South Korea," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 482-497, March.
    5. Julio Cesar Quispe-Mamani & Santotomas Licimaco Aguilar-Pinto & Dominga Asunción Calcina-Álvarez & Nelly Jacqueline Ulloa-Gallardo & Roxana Madueño-Portilla & Jorge Luis Vargas-Espinoza & Félix Quispe, 2022. "Social Factors Associated with Poverty in Households in Peru," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Andy Sumner & Peter Edward, "undated". "Dari Pendapatan Rendah dan Kemiskinan Tinggi menuju Pendapatan Tinggi Tanpa Kemiskinan? Pandangan Optimistis Evolusi Kemiskinan Jangka Panjang di Indonesia Menurut Garis Kemiskinan Internasional, 1984," Working Papers 3438, Publications Department.
    7. Indunil De Silva & Sudarno Sumarto, 2014. "Does Economic Growth Really Benefit the Poor? Income Distribution Dynamics and Pro-poor Growth in Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 227-242, August.
    8. Rezzy Eko Caraka & Robert Kurniawan & Bahrul Ilmi Nasution & Jamilatuzzahro Jamilatuzzahro & Prana Ugiana Gio & Mohammad Basyuni & Bens Pardamean, 2021. "Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises’ Business Vulnerability Cluster in Indonesia: An Analysis Using Optimized Fuzzy Geodemographic Clustering," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-17, July.
    9. Mduduzi Biyase & Talent Zwane, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis Of The Determinants Of Poverty And Household Welfare In South Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 52(1), pages 115-130, January-M.
    10. Purna Fitria, 2017. "Assets and poverty status dynamics in 5 main regions in Indonesia," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 9(1), pages 104-113, April.
    11. Hui Xiao & Jianxiu Xiao & Fangting Xie, 2022. "Impact Assessment of Farmland Lease-Out on Rural Households’ Livelihood Capital and Livelihood Strategy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, August.
    12. Takahiro Akita & Ni Made Inna Dariwardani, 2013. "Chronic and Transient Poverty in Indonesia: A Spatial Perspective with the 2008-2010 Susenas Panel Data," Working Papers EMS_2013_19, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    13. Moeis, Faizal Rahmanto & Dartanto, Teguh & Moeis, Jossy Prananta & Ikhsan, Mohamad, 2020. "A longitudinal study of agriculture households in Indonesia: The effect of land and labor mobility on welfare and poverty dynamics," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    14. Andy Sumner & Peter Edward, "undated". "From Low Income, High Poverty to High-Income, No Poverty? An Optimistic View of the Long-Run Evolution of Poverty in Indonesia By International Poverty Lines, 1984–2030," Working Papers 287, Publications Department.
    15. Andy Sumner & Arief Anshory Yusuf & Yangki Imade Suara, 2014. "The Prospects of the Poor: A Set of Poverty Measures Based on the Probability of Remaining Poor (or Not) in Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201410, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jul 2014.
    16. Walelign, Solomon Zena & Charlery, Lindy & Smith-Hall, Carsten & Chhetri, Bir Bahadur Khanal & Larsen, Helle Overgaard, 2016. "Environmental income improves household-level poverty assessments and dynamics," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 23-35.
    17. Jiao, Xi & Pouliot, Mariève & Walelign, Solomon Zena, 2017. "Livelihood Strategies and Dynamics in Rural Cambodia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 266-278.
    18. Salim Shah & Niranjan Debnath, 2022. "Determinants of Multidimensional Poverty in Rural Tripura, India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(1), pages 69-95, March.
    19. Purwono, Rudi & Wardana, Wahyu Wisnu & Haryanto, Tri & Khoerul Mubin, M., 2021. "Poverty dynamics in Indonesia: empirical evidence from three main approaches," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    20. Darius Tirtosuharto, 2022. "The impact of fiscal efficiency on poverty reduction in Indonesia: institutional factor and geographical differences," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 67-93, January.
    21. Jigme Nidup & Simon Feeny & Ashton Silva, 2018. "Improving Well-Being in Bhutan: A Pursuit of Happiness or Poverty Reduction?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 140(1), pages 79-100, November.
    22. Mai, Tung & Mahadevan, Renuka, 2016. "A research note on the poverty dynamics and cost of poverty inequality: Case study of Indonesia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 100-107.
    23. Longjunjiang Huang & Cong Liao & Xuan Guo & Yanlin Liu & Xiaojin Liu, 2023. "Analysis of the Impact of Livelihood Capital on Livelihood Strategies of Leased-In Farmland Households: A Case Study of Jiangxi Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-29, June.

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