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Assessing the employment effects of the German welfare reform -- an integrated CGE-microsimulation approach

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  • Wolfgang Franz
  • Nicole Guertzgen
  • Stefanie Schubert
  • Markus Clauss
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to quantify the employment effects of the recent German welfare reform. The key element of this reform was to merge the coexisting transfer systems Social Assistance (SA) and Unemployment Assistance (UA) into one unified benefit (Arbeitslosengeld II -- ALG II). We also consider a second reform scenario that is intended to further improve the labour supply incentives of low-skilled workers. Our methodological contribution is to use an integrated CGE-microsimulation model. In adopting such an approach, we are able to combine the advantages of microsimulation studies by accounting for the large amount of heterogeneity in terms of households’ preferences and budget constraints with the advantages of an applied general equilibrium model. The latter permits us to identify potential general equilibrium repercussions through changes in wages and unemployment. The simulations indicate that the introduction of ALG II results in a negligible increase in employment of only 45 000 individuals. In contrast, a cut in benefit levels combined with a decrease in transfer withdrawal is shown to produce somewhat larger employment effects of about 190 000 individuals.

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  • Wolfgang Franz & Nicole Guertzgen & Stefanie Schubert & Markus Clauss, 2012. "Assessing the employment effects of the German welfare reform -- an integrated CGE-microsimulation approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(19), pages 2403-2421, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:19:p:2403-2421
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.564149
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      • Michael Bräuninger & Jochen Michaelis & Madlen Sode, 2013. "10 Jahre Hartz-Reformen," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201318, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Robin Jessen & Davud Rostam-Afschar & Viktor Steiner, 2017. "Getting the Poor to Work: Three Welfare-Increasing Reforms for a Busy Germany," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(1), pages 1-41, March.
    3. Michael Christl & Silvia De Poli & Janos Varga, 2022. "Reducing the income tax burden for households with children: an assessment of the child tax credit reform in Austria," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 151-177, June.
    4. Norbert Berthold & Mustafa Coban, 2014. "Kombilöhne gegen Erwerbsarmut: Warum die USA erfolgreicher sind als Deutschland," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 94(2), pages 118-124, February.
    5. Schröder, Carsten & König, Johannes & Fedorets, Alexandra & Goebel, Jan & Grabka, Markus M. & Lüthen, Holger & Metzing, Maria & Schikora, Felicitas & Liebig, Stefan, 2020. "The economic research potentials of the German Socio-Economic Panel study," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 335-371.
    6. Andrey Launov & Klaus Wälde, 2013. "Thumbscrews for Agencies or for Individuals? How to Reduce Unemployment," Working Papers 1307, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 01 Sep 2013.
    7. Santiago Garganta & Leonardo Gasparini & Mariana Marchionni, 2017. "Cash transfers and female labor force participation: the case of AUH in Argentina," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Santiago Garganta & Joaquín Zentner, 2020. "Efecto de la Doble Escolaridad sobre la Participación Laboral Femenina en República Dominicana," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4348, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    9. Leibbrandt, Murray & Lilenstein, Kezia & Shenker, Callie & Woolard, Ingrid, 2013. "The influence of social transfers on labour supply: A South African and international review," SALDRU Working Papers 112, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    10. Michael Christl & Silvia Poli, 2021. "Trapped in inactivity? Social assistance and labour supply in Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 661-696, August.
    11. Spermann Alexander, 2017. "Basic Income in Germany: Proposals for Randomised Controlled Trials using Nudges," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-9, December.
    12. Launov, Andrey & Wälde, Klaus, 2014. "Thumbscrews for Agencies or Individuals? How to reduce unemployment," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100558, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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