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Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods

Author

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  • Pirschel, Inske
  • Wolters, Maik
Abstract
We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches for German key macroeconomic variables using a dataset that consists of 123 variables in quarterly frequency. These three approaches handle the dimensionality problem evoked by such a large dataset by aggregating information, yet on different levels. We consider different factor models, a large Bayesian VAR and model averaging techniques, where aggregation takes place before, during and after the estimation of the different models, respectively. We find that overall the large Bayesian VAR provides the most precise forecasts compared to the other large scale approaches and a number of small benchmark models. For some variables the large Bayesian VAR is also the only model producing unbiased forecasts at least for short horizons. While a Bayesian factor augmented VAR with a tight prior also provides quite accurate forecasts overall, the performance of the other methods depends on the variable to be forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Pirschel, Inske & Wolters, Maik, 2014. "Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100587, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100587
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    Cited by:

    1. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
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    3. Karen Poghosyan & Ruben Poghosyan, 2021. "On the Applicability of Dynamic Factor Models for Forecasting Real GDP Growth in Armenia," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 71(1), pages 52-79, June.
    4. Evžen Kočenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2020. "Nowcasting Real GDP Growth: Comparison between Old and New EU Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(3), pages 197-220, May.
    5. Tim Oliver Berg, 2016. "Multivariate Forecasting with BVARs and DSGE Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(8), pages 718-740, December.
    6. Heinrich, Markus & Carstensen, Kai & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik, 2017. "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168206, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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