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Monetary policy in an oil-dependent economy in the presence of multiple shocks

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  • Drygalla, Andrej
Abstract
Russian monetary policy has been challenged by large and continuous private capital outflows and a sharp drop in oil prices during 2014, with both ongoings having put a significant depreciation pressure on the ruble and having led the central bank to eventually give up its exchange rate management strategy. Against this background, this paper estimates a small open economy model for Russia, featuring an oil price sector and extended by a specification of the foreign exchange market to correctly account for systematic central bank interventions. We find that shocks to the oil price and private capital flows substantially affect domestic variables such as inflation, output and the exchange rate. Simulations of the model for the estimated actual strategy and five alternative regimes suggest that the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external shocks can substantially be lowered by adopting some form of an inflation targeting strategy. Foreign exchange intervention-based policy strategies to target the nominal exchange rate or the ruble price of oil, on the other hand, prove inferior to the policy in place.

Suggested Citation

  • Drygalla, Andrej, 2017. "Monetary policy in an oil-dependent economy in the presence of multiple shocks," IWH Discussion Papers 14/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:142017
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    Cited by:

    1. Houssa, Romain & Mohimont, Jolan & Otrok, Christopher, 2023. "Commodity exports, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Tibor Hledik & Karel Musil & Jakub Rysanek & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Forecasting Model of the Fixed Exchange Rate Regime for the Oil-Rich Kazakh Economy," Working Papers 2018/11, Czech National Bank.
    3. Ivan Khotulev & Konstantin Styrin, 2020. "Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies for Financial Stability in a Commodity-Exporting Economy," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(2), pages 3-42, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; exchange rate interventions; oil price; capital flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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