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Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package

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Listed:
  • Hinterlang, Natascha
  • Moyen, Stéphane
  • Röhe, Oke
  • Stähler, Nikolai
Abstract
We simulate the fiscal stimulus packages set up by the German government to allevi-ate the costs of the COVID-19 pandemic in a dynamic New Keynesian multi-sectorgeneral equilibrium model. We find that, cumulated over 2020-2022, output lossesrelative to steady state can be reduced by more than 4 PP. On average, welfare costsof the pandemic can be mitigated by 5%, and even by 20% for liquidity-constrainedhouseholds. The long-run present value multiplier of the package amounts to 0.2. Consumption tax cuts and transfers to households primarily stabilize private con-sumption, and subsidies prevent firm defaults. The most cost-efficient measure isan increase in productivity-enhancing public investment. However, it materializesonly in the medium to long-term.

Suggested Citation

  • Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stéphane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2021. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," Discussion Papers 43/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:432021
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    3. Groll, Dominik, 2023. "Zu den gesamtwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen des Bundesverfassungsgerichtsurteils zum Nachtragshaushalt 2021," Kiel Insight 2023.10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Bunel, Simon & Bijnens, Gert & Botelho, Vasco & Falck, Elisabeth & Labhard, Vincent & Lamo, Ana & Röhe, Oke & Schroth, Joachim & Sellner, Richard & Strobel, Johannes & Anghel, Brindusa, 2024. "Digitalisation and productivity," Occasional Paper Series 339, European Central Bank.
    5. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Winter 2023: Finanzpolitik in Turbulenzen - Gegenwind für die Erholung [German Economy in Winter 2023: Public budget under stress - Recovery faces headwinds]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 110, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Natascha Hinterlang, 2023. "Effects of Carbon Pricing in Germany and Spain: An Assessment with EMuSe," Working Papers 2328, Banco de España.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; COVID-19; DSGE Modelling; Sectoral Heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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