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Intertemporal Investment Strategies Under Inflation Risk

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Abstract
This paper studies intertemporal investment strategies under inflation risk by extending the intertemporal framework of Merton (1973) to include a stochastic price index. The stochastic price index gives rise to a two-tier evaluation system: agents maximize their utility of consumption in real terms while investment activities and wealth evolution are evaluated in nominal terms. We include inflation-indexed bonds in the agents’ investment opportunity set and study their effectiveness in hedging against inflation risk. A new multifactor term structure model is developed to price both inflation-indexed bonds and nominal bonds, and the optimal rules for intertemporal portfolio allocation, both with and without inflation-indexed bonds are obtained in closed form. The theoretical model is estimated using data of US bond yield, both real and nominal, and S&P 500 index. The estimation results are employed to construct the optimal investment strategy for an actual real market situation. Wachter (2003) pointed out that without inflation risk, the most risk averse agents (with an infinite risk aversion parameter) will invest all their wealth in the long term nominal bond maturing at the end of the investment horizon. We extend this result to the case with inflation risk and conclude that the most risk averse agents will now invest all their wealth in the inflation-indexed bond maturing at the end of the investment horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Chiarella & Chih-Ying Hsiao & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Intertemporal Investment Strategies Under Inflation Risk," Research Paper Series 192, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:192
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    File URL: https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/qfr-archive-02/QFR-rp192.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Willi Semmler & Raphaele Chappe, 2012. "Ponzi Finance And The Hedge Fund Industry," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(supp0), pages 1-25.
    2. Farid Mkaouar & Jean-Luc Prigent & Ilyes Abid, 2019. "A Diffusion Model for Long-Term Optimization in the Presence of Stochastic Interest and Inflation Rates," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 367-417, June.
    3. Huiling Wu, 2016. "Optimal Investment-Consumption Strategy under Inflation in a Markovian Regime-Switching Market," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2016, pages 1-17, July.
    4. Mkaouar, Farid & Prigent, Jean-Luc & Abid, Ilyes, 2017. "Long-term investment with stochastic interest and inflation rates: The need for inflation-indexed bonds," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 228-247.
    5. Ying‐Yin Chou & Nan‐Wei Han & Mao‐Wei Hung, 2011. "Optimal portfolio‐consumption choice under stochastic inflation with nominal and indexed bonds," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(6), pages 691-706, November.
    6. Kevin Fergusson, 2020. "Forecasting inflation using univariate continuous‐time stochastic models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 37-46, January.
    7. Willi Semmler & Raphaële Chappe, 2011. "The Operation of Hedge Funds: Econometric Evidence, Dynamic Modeling, and Regulatory Perspectives," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Greg N. Gregoriou & Razvan Pascalau (ed.), Financial Econometrics Modeling: Derivatives Pricing, Hedge Funds and Term Structure Models, chapter 1, pages 3-34, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Farid Mkouar & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2014. "Long-Term Investment with Stochastic Interest and Inflation Rates Incompleteness and Compensating Variation," Working Papers 2014-301, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    9. Esfandi, Elaheh & Mousavi, Mir Hossein & Moshrefi, Rassam & Farhang-Moghaddam, Babak, 2020. "Insurer Optimal Asset Allocation in a Small and Closed Economy: The Case of Iran’s Social Security Organization," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 15(4), pages 445-461, October.

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    Keywords

    inflation-indexed bonds; intertemporal asset allocation; inflationary expectations;
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