Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/upf/upfgen/1754.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Local sectoral specialization in a warming world

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno Conte
  • Klaus Desmet
  • David Krisztián Nagy
  • Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Abstract
This paper quantitatively assesses the world's changing economic geography and sectoral specialization due to global warming. It proposes a two-sector dynamic spatial growth model that incorporates the relation between economic activity, carbon emissions, and temperature. The model is taken to the data at the 1 degree by 1 degree resolution for the entire world. Over a 200-year horizon, rising temperatures consistent with emissions under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 push people and economic activity northwards to Siberia, Canada, and Scandinavia. Compared to a world without climate change, clusters of agricultural specialization shift from Central Africa, Brazil, and India's Ganges Valley, to Central Asia, parts of China and northern Canada. Equatorial latitudes that lose agriculture specialize more in nonagriculture but, due to their persistently low productivity, lose population. By the year 2200, predicted losses in real GDP and utility are 6% and 15%, respectively. Higher trade costs make adaptation through changes in sectoral specialization more costly, leading to less geographic concentration in agriculture and larger climate-induced migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Conte & Klaus Desmet & David Krisztián Nagy & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2020. "Local sectoral specialization in a warming world," Economics Working Papers 1754, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1754
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/1754.pdf
    File Function: Whole Paper
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    2. Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2017. "Quantitative Spatial Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 21-58, September.
    3. Klaus Desmet & Robert E. Kopp & Scott A. Kulp & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Michael Oppenheimer & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2021. "Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 444-486, April.
    4. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia, 2010. "The Role of the Structural Transformation in Aggregate Productivity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 129-173.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & Douglas Hanley & William Kerr, 2016. "Transition to Clean Technology," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 52-104.
    6. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 667-682.
    7. Treb Allen & Costas Arkolakis, 2014. "Trade and the Topography of the Spatial Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(3), pages 1085-1140.
    8. Desmet, Klaus & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2015. "On the spatial economic impact of global warming," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 16-37.
    9. Treb Allen & Costas Arkolakis & Xiangliang Li, 2020. "On the Equilibrium Properties of Network Models with Heterogeneous Agents," NBER Working Papers 27837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1145-1197.
    11. Dmitriev, Mikhail & Comin, Diego & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2012. "The Spatial Diffusion of Technology," CEPR Discussion Papers 9208, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    13. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    14. Klaus Desmet & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2018. "The Geography of Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 903-983.
    15. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2019. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 741-835, May.
    16. Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Cory Smith, 2016. "Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields around the World," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 205-248.
    17. J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    18. H. Damon Matthews & Nathan P. Gillett & Peter A. Stott & Kirsten Zickfeld, 2009. "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions," Nature, Nature, vol. 459(7248), pages 829-832, June.
    19. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    20. Myles R. Allen & David J. Frame & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & Jason A. Lowe & Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen, 2009. "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1163-1166, April.
    21. Ishan B. Nath, 2020. "The Food Problem and the Aggregate Productivity Consequences of Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 27297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1145-1197.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. José-Luis Cruz & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2024. "The Economic Geography of Global Warming," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 899-939.
    2. Xu, Hui & Deng, Huai, 2024. "Short-term impact of climate change on labor market in China: Quantitative spatial analysis based on an oligopsony model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    4. Richard S.J. Tol, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Weather and Climate," Video Library 2094, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    5. Cassin, Lesly & Melindi-Ghidi, Paolo & Prieur, Fabien, 2022. "Confronting climate change: Adaptation vs. migration in Small Island Developing States," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Santeramo, Fabio & Ferrari, Emanuele & Toreti, Andrea, 2021. "Achieving Climate Change and Environmental Goals without Protectionist Measures: Mission (Im)possible?," 2021: Trade and Environmental Policies: Synergies and Rivalries, December 12-14, San Diego, CA, Hybrid 339403, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    7. Rudik, Ivan & Lyn, Gary & Tan, Weiliang & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel, 2021. "Heterogeneity and Market Adaptation to Climate Change in Dynamic-Spatial Equilibrium," SocArXiv usghb, Center for Open Science.
    8. Kotlikoff, Laurence & Kubler, Felix & Polbin, Andrey & Scheidegger, Simon, 2024. "Can today’s and tomorrow’s world uniformly gain from carbon taxation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Alan Feng & Haishi Li & Yulin Wang, 2023. "We Are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Shocks through International Trade and Supply Chain," CESifo Working Paper Series 10402, CESifo.
    10. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2024. "The effects of climate change on labor and capital reallocation," Economics Working Papers 1887, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    11. Cascarano, Michele & Natoli, Filippo & Petrella, Andrea, 2022. "Entry, exit and market structure in a changing climate," MPRA Paper 112868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Per Krusell & Tony Smith, 2022. "Climate Change Around the World," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2342, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2021. "The Effects of Climate Change on Labor and Capital Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 28995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Ishan Nath, 2021. "Climate Change, The Food Problem, and the Challenge of Adaptation through Sectoral Reallocation," Working Papers 21-29, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    15. Olper, Alessandro & Maugeri, Maurizio & Manara, Veronica & Raimondi, Valentina, 2021. "Weather, climate and economic outcomes: Evidence from Italy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    16. repec:ags:aaea22:335544 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. François Bareille & Raja Chakir & Charles Regnacq, 2024. "Rainwater shocks and economic growth: The role of the water cycle partition [Chocs de l'eau de pluie et croissance économique : Le rôle de la partition du cycle de l'eau]," Post-Print hal-04698458, HAL.
    18. Breckenfelder, Johannes & Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Olovsson, Conny & Popov, Alexander & Porcellacchia, Davide & Schepens, Glenn, 2023. "The climate and the economy," Working Paper Series 2793, European Central Bank.
    19. Rudik, Ivan & Lyn, Gary & Tan, Weiliang & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel, 2022. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change in Dynamic Spatial Equilibrium," Conference papers 333486, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Juan S. Mora-Sanguinetti & Andrés Atienza-Maeso, 2023. ""Green regulation": a quantification of regulations related to renewable energies and climate change in Spain and France," Working papers 937, Banque de France.
    21. Delbridge, Victoria & Harman, Oliver & Oliveira Cunha, Juliana & Venables, Anthony J., 2022. "Sustainable urbanisation in developing countries: cities as places to innovate, trade, and work," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118027, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    22. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2021. "The Effects of Climate Change on Labor and Capital Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 28995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. José-Luis Cruz & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2024. "The Economic Geography of Global Warming," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 899-939.
    2. Desmet, Klaus & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2015. "On the spatial economic impact of global warming," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 16-37.
    3. Dávid Krisztián Nagy, 2020. "Hinterlands, City Formation and Growth: Evidence from the U.S. Westward Expansion," Working Papers 1172, Barcelona School of Economics.
    4. Ishan Nath, 2021. "Climate Change, The Food Problem, and the Challenge of Adaptation through Sectoral Reallocation," Working Papers 21-29, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Per Krusell & Tony Smith, 2022. "Climate Change Around the World," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2342, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    7. Dávid Krisztián Nagy, 2021. "Quantitative Economic Geography Meets History: Questions, Answers and Challenges," Working Papers 1249, Barcelona School of Economics.
    8. Rudik, Ivan & Lyn, Gary & Tan, Weiliang & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel, 2021. "Heterogeneity and Market Adaptation to Climate Change in Dynamic-Spatial Equilibrium," SocArXiv usghb, Center for Open Science.
    9. Egger, Peter & Loumeau, Nicole, 2018. "The Economic Geography of Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Xu, Hui & Deng, Huai, 2024. "Short-term impact of climate change on labor market in China: Quantitative spatial analysis based on an oligopsony model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Hassler, J. & Krusell, P. & Smith, A.A., 2016. "Environmental Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1893-2008, Elsevier.
    12. Nagy, Dávid Krisztián, 2022. "Quantitative economic geography meets history: Questions, answers and challenges," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    13. Acemoglu, Daron & Rafey, Will, 2023. "Mirage on the horizon: Geoengineering and carbon taxation without commitment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    14. Michał Burzyński & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Hendrik SCHEEWEL, 2021. "The Geography of Climate Migration," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 345-381, September.
    15. David Krisztián Nagy, 2020. "Quantitative economic geography meets history: Questions, answers and challenges," Economics Working Papers 1774, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2021.
    16. Allen, Treb & Donaldson, Dave, 2022. "Persistence and path dependence: A primer," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    17. Adam Michael Bauer & Cristian Proistosescu & Gernot Wagner, 2023. "Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10278, CESifo.
    18. Adrien Bilal & Esteban Rossi‐Hansberg, 2021. "Location as an Asset," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2459-2495, September.
    19. Benny Kleinman & Ernest Liu & Stephen J. Redding, 2023. "Dynamic Spatial General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 385-424, March.
    20. Redding, Stephen, 2020. "Trade and Geography," CEPR Discussion Papers 15268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1754. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econ.upf.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.