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Up From Sin: A Portfolio Approach To Financial Salvation

Author

Listed:
  • Randall DODD
  • Shari SPIEGEL
Abstract
In this paper, we develop a proposal with the potential to greatly improve the ability of developing countries to reduce their exposure to other countries´ interest rate and exchange rate volatility and to lower their cost of raising capital abroad. The key to achieving these goals is for developing countries to borrow in their own currencies and for investors to lend by creating portfolios of local-currency government debt securities that employ the risk management technique of diversification to generate a return-to-risk that competes favourably with other major capital market security indices. We show, based on data from the early 1990s, that a portfolio of emerging market local currency debt can generate rates of return relative to risk that compete with those of major securities indices in international capital markets. It bears noting that the early 1990s witnessed several severe shocks to international capital markets, including the crises in East Asia, the Russian Federation and Brazil, and the failure of Long-Term Capital Management. We also analyse the implications of deploying such a policy for attracting capital to developing countries, the impact on the stability of their financial systems and on their costs of borrowing, and the implications for future development of local capital markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Randall DODD & Shari SPIEGEL, 2005. "Up From Sin: A Portfolio Approach To Financial Salvation," G-24 Discussion Papers 34, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    • Handle: RePEc:unc:g24pap:34
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    File URL: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/gdsmdpbg2420051_en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerard Caprio & Patrick Honohan, 2008. "Banking Crises," Center for Development Economics 2008-09, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    2. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
    3. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    4. Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1998. "Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility," IMF Working Papers 1998/083, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2003. "Whither reform? Towards a new agenda for Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    6. Morris Goldstein & Philip Turner, 2004. "Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 373, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Korinek, Anton, 2011. "Foreign currency debt, risk premia and macroeconomic volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 371-385, April.
    2. Eiji Fujii, 2024. "Currency concentration in sovereign debt, exchange rate cyclicality, and volatility in consumption," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(1), pages 169-192, February.
    3. Ronald U. Mendoza, 2007. "A Compendium of Policy Instruments to Enhance Financial Stability and Debt Management in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 48, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    4. Eiji Fujii, 2020. "Currency Portfolio of External Debt, Exchange Rate Cyclicality, and Consumption Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8287, CESifo.
    5. José Antonio Ocampo & Stephany Griffith-Jones, 2007. "A counter-cyclical framework for a development-friendly international financial architecture," Working Papers 39, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    6. Shari Spiegel, 2007. "Macroeconomics and Growth Policies," Policy Notes 1, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.

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