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Carbon Lock-In: The Role of Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Gerard van der Meijden

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Sjak Smulders

    (Tilburg University, the Netherlands)

Abstract
We argue that expectations about future energy use affect the transition from fossil to renewables, because of an interaction between innovation and resource scarcity. The paper presents a model of directed technical change to study this interaction. We find that fossil-saving technical change erodes the incentives to implement the renewables. Conversely, the anticipation of a transition to renewables diminishes the incentives to invest in fossil technology. As a result, two equilibria may arise, one with a transition to renewables and with low fossil efficiency, and one without renewables and with high fossil efficiency. Expectations determine which equilibrium arises in equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerard van der Meijden & Sjak Smulders, 2014. "Carbon Lock-In: The Role of Expectations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-100/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Jul 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20140100
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    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/14100.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gregory Casey, 2024. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 192-228.
    2. Andreas Schaefer, 2017. "Enforcement of Intellectual Property, Pollution Abatement, and Directed Technical Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(3), pages 457-480, March.
    3. Gustav Engström & Johan Gars & Niko Jaakkola & Therese Lindahl & Daniel Spiro & Arthur A. van Benthem, 2020. "What Policies Address Both the Coronavirus Crisis and the Climate Crisis?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 789-810, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Directed technical change; energy transition; multiple equilibria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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