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Hedge Your Costs: Exchange Rate Risk and Endogenous Currency Invoicing

Author

Listed:
  • Novy, Dennis

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

Abstract
The choice of invoicing currency for trade is crucial for the international transmission of macroeconomic policy. This paper develops a three-country model that endogenizes the choice of invoicing currency and that allows for a share of firms' costs to be denominated in foreign currency, consistent with the empirical evidence on the high degree of pass-through to import prices. Invoicing decisions are driven by firms' desire to hedge costs but also by exchange rate volatility and currency comovements. The model is tested empirically with a data set that spans ten currencies and 24 reporting countries, confirming the importance of currency comovements for the decision to invoice in vehicle currency. The findings also imply that if the U.S. share of world output continues to fall, other currencies will increasingly replace the U.S. dollar as an international vehicle currency.

Suggested Citation

  • Novy, Dennis, 2006. "Hedge Your Costs: Exchange Rate Risk and Endogenous Currency Invoicing," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 765, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:765
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Linda S. Goldberg & Cédric Tille, 2009. "Micro, macro, and strategic forces in international trade invoicing," Staff Reports 405, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Gerardo Licandro & Miguel Mello, 2017. "Foreign Currency Invoicing of Domestic Transactions as a Hedging Strategy Theory and Evidence for Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2017004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    3. Goldberg, Linda & Tille, Cédric, 2013. "A bargaining theory of trade invoicing and pricing," Kiel Working Papers 1839, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Livia Chiu & Arnaud Mehl, 2016. "Network effects, homogeneous goods and international currency choice: New evidence on oil markets from an older era," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 173-206, February.
    5. Crowley, M. A. & Han, L. & Son, M., 2020. "Dominant Currency Dynamics: Evidence on Dollar-invoicing from UK Exporters," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20113, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Cook, David & Patel, Nikhil, 2023. "Dollar invoicing, global value chains, and the business cycle dynamics of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Boz, Emine & Casas, Camila & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gopinath, Gita & Le Mezo, Helena & Mehl, Arnaud & Nguyen, Tra, 2022. "Patterns of invoicing currency in global trade: New evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Linda S. Goldberg, 2011. "The international role of the dollar: Does it matter if this changes?," Staff Reports 522, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Mukhin, Dmitry, 2022. "An equilibrium model of the international price system," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112500, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Maria V. Sokolova, 2015. "Strategic Currency Choice in International Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 5574, CESifo.
    11. Antoine Berthou, 2023. "International sanctions and the dollar: Evidence from trade invoicing," Working papers 924, Banque de France.
    12. Miguel Mello, 2017. "Derivatives and Exchange Rate Hedging Strategies in Uruguayan Firms," Documentos de trabajo 2017005, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    13. Goldberg, Linda S. & Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Vehicle currency use in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 177-192, December.
    14. Michael B. Devereux & Kang Shi & Juanyi Xu, 2010. "Oil Currency and the Dollar Standard: A Simple Analytical Model of an International Trade Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 521-550, June.
    15. Friberg, Richard & Wilander, Fredrik, 2008. "The currency denomination of exports -- A questionnaire study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 54-69, May.
    16. Liu, Tao & Lu, Dong, 2019. "Trade, finance and endogenous invoicing currency: Theory and firm-level evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 21-44.
    17. Hiro Ito & Cesar M. Rodriguez, 2020. "Clamoring for greenbacks: Explaining the resurgence of the U.S. dollar in international debt," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 370-391, December.
    18. Ito, Hiro & Chinn, Menzie, 2014. "The Rise of the “Redback” and the People’s Republic of China’s Capital Account Liberalization: An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Invoicing Currencies," ADBI Working Papers 473, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    19. Goldberg, Linda S. & Tille, Cédric, 2016. "Micro, macro, and strategic forces in international trade invoicing: Synthesis and novel patterns," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 173-187.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Invoicing Currency ; Exchange Rate Risk ; Hedging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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