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Fiscal Rules and Sovereign Default

Author

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  • Laura Alfaro

    (Harvard Business School)

Abstract
We provide a quantitative analysis of fiscal rules in a standard model of sovereign debt accumulation and default, modified to incorporate quasi-hyperbolic preferences. Due to the aggregation of citizens’ preferences or to political economy reasons, government preferences are present biased, and results in over accumulation of debt. In a quantitative exercise calibrated to Brazil, we obtain that the welfare gains of the optimal fiscal policy are economically substantial, and that the optimal rule does not entail a countercyclical fiscal policy. We also analyze the cases of a simple debt rule limiting the maximum amount of debt and compare it to that of a simple deficit rule, which limits the maximum amount of deficit per period. Whereas the deficit rule does not perform well, the debt rule results in welfare gains virtually equal to the optimal rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Alfaro, 2016. "Fiscal Rules and Sovereign Default," 2016 Meeting Papers 209, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:209
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    Cited by:

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    2. Facundo Piguillem & Alessandro Riboni, 2021. "Fiscal Rules as Bargaining Chips [Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(5), pages 2439-2478.
    3. Adam Pigoń & Michał Ramsza, 2022. "A Comparison of German, Swiss, and Polish Fiscal Rules Using Monte Carlo Simulations," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 17-41.
    4. Stéphane Auray & Michael B. Devereux & Aurélien Eyquem, 2024. "The Demand for Trade Protection over the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 865-898, June.
    5. Ricardo Sabbadini, 2018. "Loss Aversion and Search for Yield in Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_16, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    6. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Eyigungor, Burcu, 2019. "Endogenous political turnover and fluctuations in sovereign default risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 37-50.
    7. Minjie Deng and Chang Liu, 2024. "Public Financing Under Balanced Budget Rules," Discussion Papers dp24-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    8. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama, 2021. "Present-biased Government, Creative Accounting and a Pitfall in Balanced Budget Rules," Borradores de Economia 1183, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Capraru, Bogdan & Georgescu, George & Sprincean, Nicu, 2023. "Fiscal Rules, Independent Fiscal Institutions, and Sovereign Risk," Working Papers of Romania Fiscal Council 230201, Romania Fiscal Council.
    10. Antonio Cusato Novelli, 2021. "Sovereign default, political instability and political fragmentation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 732-755, September.
    11. Pagenhardt, Laura & Große Steffen, Christoph & Rieth, Malte, 2021. "Commited to Flexible Fiscal Rules," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242330, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Javier Bianchi & Pablo Ottonello & Ignacio Presno, 2023. "Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(9), pages 2328-2369.
    13. Liu, Yan & Wu, Guowei & Xiong, Chen, 2024. "Countercyclical central government transfers incentivize local government overborrowing: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    14. Marina Halac & Pierre Yared, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and Discretion Under Limited Enforcement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2093-2127, September.
    15. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Stelios Fourakis, 2020. "On the Welfare Losses from External Sovereign Borrowing," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 163-194, March.
    16. Marina Halac & Pierre Yared, 2017. "Fiscal Rules and Discretion under Self-Enforcement," NBER Working Papers 23919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Chen, Xiaoshan & Leith, Campbell & Ricci, Mattia, 2023. "Evaluating fiscal policy reforms using the fiscal frontier," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    18. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Nicolas Moreno-Arias & Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, 2023. "Credibility and Bias: The Case for Implementing Both a Debt Anchor and a Balanced Budget Rule," IHEID Working Papers 09-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    19. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2021. "Public Capital and Fiscal Constraint in Sovereign Debt Crises," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0621, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    20. Aguiar, Mark & Amador, Manuel, 2019. "A contraction for sovereign debt models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 842-875.
    21. Mihaela Onofrei & Tudorel Toader & Anca Florentina Vatamanu & Florin Oprea, 2021. "Impact of Governments’ Fiscal Behaviors on Public Finance Sustainability: A Comparative Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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